Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

[WmE]

They found max FL wind of 101kts

101 x .90 = 90.9Kts at the surface

This is CAT 3 now folks..MAJOR HURRICANE..

No it's not! LOL 96kts not 90.9kts is Cat3.!!

[Thunder44]

They found max FL wind of 101kts

101 x .90 = 90.9Kts at the surface

This is CAT 3 now folks..MAJOR HURRICANE..

No, this equals to about 105mph at the surface. A little stronger but still a Cat 2.

[DESTRUCTION5]

my math sux..

[cycloneye]

VDM came with 965 mbs a 5 mb drop in 2 hours.

[WmE]

Did you notice? Eye was described as oval in the last Vortex. Now it says circular. Becoming more organized i guess.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Now Cat 3

[WmE]

I wouldn't upgrade it to a major with an open eyewall. Winds wouldn't support it either. At least for now.

[cycloneye]

110 mph upgrade.

[jhamps10]

I wouldn't upgrade it to a major with an open eyewall. Winds wouldn't support it either. At least for now.

yeah in most cases I'd agree with you, but recon had surface winds in last Vortex message of 115 MPH so I think they will upgrade at 11

[Thunder44]

I wouldn't upgrade it to a major with an open eyewall. Winds wouldn't support it either. At least for now.

yeah in most cases I'd agree with you, but recon had surface winds in last Vortex message of 115 MPH so I think they will upgrade at 11

That is a met on the plane estimate by looking at ocean waves. NHC hardly uses it.

[WmE]

In fact they found winds of just under Cat3 strength. The estimate of the crew were the 100kts, I guess. However if it continues to organize and the eyewall wraps around a Cat 3 at 11.am is not out of question. But as of now it'd hold it as a strong Cat2.

[Lowpressure]

At this point it really does not matter. It will be a 3 and probably much more soon enough. Not worth the squabble of 110 or 115. The bigger issue will be 150-155 approaching Jamaica I would think. I hope not for their sake, but this is going to be ugly for many I am afraid.

[craptacular]

Anyone know how to read UZNT13? There are decoders for URNT11 and 15 and the VDM (URNT12) is fairly straightforward, but I'm lost on UZNT13.

The decoder I got from somewhere around here last year (ReconExcel) will decode dropsondes (UZNT13). Here is an example from today's mission.

*raw data*
557
UZNT13 KNHC 171313
XXAA 67137 99145 70617 04341 99974 25600 10580 00737 ///// /////
92451 22800 12609 85188 19800 14108 70848 12800 17588 88999 77999
31313 09608 81233
61616 AF304 0404A DEAN OB 13
62626 EYEWALL 225 SPL 1459N06176W 1238 MBL WND 11107 AEV 00000
DLM WND 14600 974710 WL150 10599 075 =
XXBB 67138 99145 70617 04341 00974 25600 11953 23600 22850 19800
33769 15401 44702 13800 55697 11600
21212 00974 10580 11970 10086 22965 10108 33963 10616 44951 11125
55949 11124 66941 11105 77939 11604 88930 12112 99914 13104 11898
13610 22850 14108 33742 16602 44697 17585
31313 09608 81233
61616 AF304 0404A DEAN OB 13
62626 EYEWALL 225 SPL 1459N06176W 1238 MBL WND 11107 AEV 00000
DLM WND 14600 974710 WL150 10599 075 =

*decoded*

Dropsonde Observations
Storm Name: DEAN (04L)
Mission Number: 04
Flight ID: AF304
Observation Number: 13
Time: 1300Z
Latitude: 14.5°N
Longitude: 61.7°W
Location: 47 mi W of Fort-de-France, Martinique
Surface: 974 mb; Temp: 78°F; Dewpt: 78°F; ESE (105°) @ 92 mph
#VALUE!
925mb height: 1480 ft; Temp: 73°F; Dewpt: 73°F; SE (125°) @ 126 mph
850mb height: 3898 ft; Temp: 68°F; Dewpt: 68°F; SE (140°) @ 124 mph
700mb height: 9344 ft; Temp: 55°F; Dewpt: 55°F; S (175°) @ 101 mph
500mb height: Unavailable
400mb height: Unavailable
300mb height: Unavailable
250mb height: Unavailable
200mb height: Unavailable
EYEWALL 225 SPL 1459N06176W 1238 MBL WND 11107 AEV 00000
DLM WND 14600 974710 WL150 10599 075 =

974mb winds: ESE (105°) @ 92 mph
970mb winds: E (100°) @ 99 mph
965mb winds: E (100°) @ 124 mph
963mb winds: ESE (105°) @ 134 mph
951mb winds: ESE (110°) @ 144 mph
949mb winds: ESE (110°) @ 143 mph
941mb winds: ESE (110°) @ 121 mph
939mb winds: ESE (115°) @ 120 mph
930mb winds: ESE (120°) @ 129 mph
914mb winds: SE (130°) @ 120 mph
898mb winds: SE (135°) @ 127 mph
850mb winds: SE (140°) @ 124 mph
742mb winds: SSE (165°) @ 118 mph
697mb winds: S (175°) @ 98 mph
#VALUE!

[marcane_1973]

Question: What is the inhibiting factors from Mr. Dean keeping an eyewall closed for a long period of time and how come we have not been able to see a decent cleared out eye as of yet??? In the past we have seen Hurricanes with a pressure reading in the 965-975 range that have had a better structure and cleared out eye by now.

[WmE]

I'm not sure either. IMO westerly shear (perhaps causing some dry air intrusion) prevents it from closing its eyewall. NHC notes that shear should abate in 24 hours. Well without shear and the improved heat content nothing should hinder further intensification.

[KWT]

Well what I'm thinking is its a 965mbs with a open eyewall and a clouded eye feature...how strong it could become once it actually does clear that eye out and closes the eyewall, 940, 920, lower??

[CrazyC83]

Right now I would go with 95 kt and 964mb.

[Derek Ortt]

it is only 90KT

the 102KT was an SFMR reading, but it was over land. SFMR cannot get accurate readings over land

[Ivanhater]

Wow..I had a dream last night I was dropping dropsonds outside of the plane door... This storm is taking up my life! lol

[SouthFloridawx]

962 on one of those obs eh?