Pouch PGI46L - Near Windwards - (Is invest 95L)

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ROCK
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Re: Pouch PGI46L - East of Windward Islands

#801 Postby ROCK » Mon Sep 20, 2010 12:50 am

http://www.canadianweather.org/models/gem00.php

CMC long range shows it going into CA at 144hr but I guess it gets pulled back out at 168hr heads over Cuba and up the EC...huh? :?:
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Re: Pouch PGI46L - East of Windward Islands

#802 Postby boca » Mon Sep 20, 2010 12:53 am

ROCK wrote:http://www.canadianweather.org/models/gem00.php

CMC long range shows it going into CA at 144hr but I guess it gets pulled back out at 168hr heads over Cuba and up the EC...huh? :?:


Hey Rock that run of the CMC has it going directly over SE Florida.
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#803 Postby Vortex » Mon Sep 20, 2010 12:53 am

similar to the GFS....still think could be a bit to far to the east....well see what the euro shows shortly...
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#804 Postby AJC3 » Mon Sep 20, 2010 1:35 am

In the 00Z ECM, there has been a NE-ward shift in the position of the H50 low at H144 (western Iowa), compared with the h156 forecast from the 12Z run (southwestern Kansas). Looks as though the ECM H50 pattern has trended toward the GFS at days 5-6.
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#805 Postby Vortex » Mon Sep 20, 2010 1:38 am

00Z euro H+144 beginning to take shape between honduras and jamaica




http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP144.gif
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Re:

#806 Postby Vortex » Mon Sep 20, 2010 1:42 am

AJC3 wrote:In the 00Z ECM, there has been a NE-ward shift in the position of the H50 low at H144 (western Iowa), compared with the h156 forecast from the 12Z run (southwestern Kansas). Looks as though the ECM H50 pattern has trended toward the GFS at days 5-6.




noticed that AJ
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Re: Pouch PGI46L - East of Windward Islands

#807 Postby boca » Mon Sep 20, 2010 1:45 am

The latest euro run at 240hrs takes it into the BOC along the Mexican coastline.

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP240.gif
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#808 Postby Vortex » Mon Sep 20, 2010 1:48 am

H168 stronger over nw carribean



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP168.gif
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Re: Pouch PGI46L - East of Windward Islands

#809 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Sep 20, 2010 1:48 am

boca wrote:The latest euro run at 240hrs takes it into the BOC along the Mexican coastline.

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP240.gif


boca,

That is from last night's 00Z run.
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#810 Postby Vortex » Mon Sep 20, 2010 1:50 am

H192 starting to crank over nw carribean



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP192.gif
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Re: Pouch PGI46L - East of Windward Islands

#811 Postby boca » Mon Sep 20, 2010 1:50 am

Opps sorry guys
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#812 Postby Vortex » Mon Sep 20, 2010 1:52 am

much stronger this run 192




http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP192.gif
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#813 Postby Vortex » Mon Sep 20, 2010 1:55 am

216 stronger moving west....over yucatan...wheres rock :lol:



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP216.gif
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Re: Pouch PGI46L - East of Windward Islands

#814 Postby boca » Mon Sep 20, 2010 2:00 am

I might of posted last nights run by accident but tonights run is ultimately in the same area but stronger.
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Re: Pouch PGI46L - East of Windward Islands

#815 Postby ColinDelia » Mon Sep 20, 2010 3:22 am

PGI46L moves into the Caribbean in 24-36 hours now.
No 850 mb vorticity greater than 40 units yet and quite elongated so i won't post the vorticity image

Image
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Re: Pouch PGI46L - East of Windward Islands

#816 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Sep 20, 2010 5:17 am

Image
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#817 Postby abajan » Mon Sep 20, 2010 5:17 am

Convection blossoming nicely to the east of the islands. Looks like some thundery weather ahead!
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Re: Pouch PGI46L - East of Windward Islands

#818 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 20, 2010 6:09 am

06z GFS loop. The diferences between GFS and ECMWF continue in terms of CONUS evolution of trough.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
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#819 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Sep 20, 2010 6:22 am

06 GFS develops near Jamaica and then northward up the east coast of FL to landfall in GA.

No way this is Pouch PG146L

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLoop.html
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Re: Pouch PGI46L - East of Windward Islands

#820 Postby Blown Away » Mon Sep 20, 2010 6:25 am

cycloneye wrote:06z GFS loop. The diferences between GFS and ECMWF continue in terms of CONUS evolution of trough.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml


That would be an unusual run for a system to be pulled out of the SW Caribbean over E Cuba and then get pushed back over the CONUS.
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