2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[South Texas Storms]

0z Canadian just shows a weak low heading towards TX in 10 days. Much weaker this run in the Gulf.

[Alyono]

CMC is weaker due to significantly more land interaction. It moves into Honduras as a TS, but then spends most of its time on land

[Twisted-core]

00z precip if anyone wants look



animated
https://imgur.com/6LRdyGO

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Gfs really consistent- I think we really could get a hurricane in the gulf next week. Central Gulf coast would be where the system may track. I’m not an expert though.

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like signal is there for some form of genesis, would be a huge coup from long range GFS if it were to verify.

[Alyono]

I'm seeing the difference between the EC and the other models

The EC is actually shifting the entire monsoon trough westward such that nothing can form in the Caribbean

[bamajammer4eva]

NWS Tallahassee's sums it up-clear as mud

While the GFS continues to strengthen a surface low across the central Gulf
during this time, the ECMWF continues to show a broad surface high
across the central and eastern Gulf.

[Kingarabian]

I'm seeing the difference between the EC and the other models

The EC is actually shifting the entire monsoon trough westward such that nothing can form in the Caribbean

Such that the system the GFS is spawning briefly forms in the EPAC vs. the GOM.

[Twisted-core]

i was thinking the ec was showing a llcc buried just onshore @158hr sse of Yucatan caribbean
sea..


https://imgur.com/AMLtyFJ

[cycloneye]

Oh boy GFS:

[Dylan]

These GFS solutions are absurd. We haven't seen a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico in the month of June since 1966!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Since the gfs has been pretty consistent on hitting south LA with a hypothetical hurricane here is our latest long range discussion out of baton rouge/New Orleans breaking it all down.


When we last left off, our GFS generated cyclone has transitioned from a
Florida landfall, to an upper Texas coast landfall, and back to a
central Louisiana landfall near Terrebonne Parish. Let`s look at
what we DO know.

1. Current satellite imagery shows a large expanse
of high level shear from Central America through the western
Caribbean Sea into Cuba. This is a strong inhibitor for any
development in the short-term.

2. GFS continues to generate a closed circulation as a result of
an ITCZ disturbance that emerges from Colombia into the Pacific
Ocean south of the Panama Canal Zone, then migrates it north
through the week.

3. ECMWF and CMC models show just open wave feature of no
consequence traversing the periphery of the Bermuda ridge during
the week. While this is still a weaker, less concerning
solution, it is now an acknowledgement to some tropical energy
coming from the ITCZ. Something that has been lacking until now.

4. No discernible feature is noted as a seedling candidate, at
least as the GFS is attempting to depict, despite a pretty active
ITCZ from western Venezuela through the eastern Pacific, which
currently has active Hurricane Aletta.

5. The GFS has now shown a tropical cyclone targeted in the Friday
15th to Saturday 16th range for at least 12 consecutive model
runs.

HYPOTHETICALLY, and in the far too early to predict category, IF
the GFS is on to something, a perfect prog deterministic forecast
shows a 973 mb minimal category 2 hurricane making landfall in
lower Terrebonne Parish. This would potentially produce a storm
surge around 8-9 feet along the LA coast and potentially 3-5 feet
in the tidal lakes. The GFS continues to be discounted at this
time for the reasons given above, but trends are being closely
monitored. 24/RR

[cycloneye]

From chaser Josh Morgerman on twitter.

@iCyclone
Yep, it's that time of year. (What a warped lifestyle.)





 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1005405068273676288

[robbielyn]

These GFS solutions are absurd. We haven't seen a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico in the month of June since 1966!

no offense, but if it happened in 1966(the year i was born incidentally), why couldn’t happen again? Although I truly hope that it is bogus after Harvey last year.

[Dylan]

These GFS solutions are absurd. We haven't seen a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico in the month of June since 1966!

no offense, but if it happened in 1966(the year i was born incidentally), why couldn’t happen again? Although I truly hope that it is bogus after Harvey last year.

Sure, I COULD win the Powerball tonight and retire. The idea of a Category 4 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico in early June is ridiculous, and is extremely unlikely given how rare it is. Once again, its been over 50 years since its happened. All of the stars would have to align. Even the guidance that does develop this only keep it a tropical storm, which is much more reasonable given climatology.

[setxweathergal64]

These GFS solutions are absurd. We haven't seen a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico in the month of June since 1966!

no offense, but if it happened in 1966(the year i was born incidentally), why couldn’t happen again? Although I truly hope that it is bogus after Harvey last year.

Sure, I COULD win the Powerball tonight and retire. The idea of a Category 4 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico in early June is ridiculous, and is extremely unlikely given how rare it is. Once again, its been over 50 years since its happened. All of the stars would have to align. Even the guidance that does develop this only keep it a tropical storm, which is much more reasonable given climatology.

This is my first post in a very long time so I hope I'm doing it right. I have followed this board for years. I live about 10 miles from where the moderator (I can't remember her name) lived and lost her home during Harvey. My mom also lost her home due to 7 feet of unheard of flood waters. Around August 25th I was joking about a post someone had circulated of a predicted 41 inches of rain in our area...and my response was..."there is no way this could be true". Well I guess everything aligned. I never say never anymore..

On a positive note, I'm so thankful for this group.❤

[NDG]

Wow, just no respect at all for the GFS by the NHC, I don't blame them as the Euro would had been on board by now if cyclogenesis was to happen within 5 days like the GFS has been showing.

[StruThiO]

This is my first post in a very long time so I hope I'm doing it right. I have followed this board for years. I live about 10 miles from where the moderator (I can't remember her name) lived and lost her home during Harvey. My mom also lost her home due to 7 feet of unheard of flood waters. Around August 25th I was joking about a post someone had circulated of a predicted 41 inches of rain in our area...and my response was..."there is no way this could be true". Well I guess everything aligned. I never say never anymore..

On a positive note, I'm so thankful for this group.❤

I understand where you're coming from. It's just that a global model persistently indicating a major hurricane in June may raise eyebrows and we need to take a step back and realize that the chances of it actually verifying are super low. Don't want unnecessary hype. And while the Atlantic can be full of surprises, it is only early June. Also, sorry about your mother's house! Hope everything is better by now.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

While we haven't seen a major hurricane in the month of June in many decades, we have seen a sub 950mb hurricane in the Gulf in June relatively recently: Hurricane Alex in 2010.

[setxweathergal64]

This is my first post in a very long time so I hope I'm doing it right. I have followed this board for years. I live about 10 miles from where the moderator (I can't remember her name) lived and lost her home during Harvey. My mom also lost her home due to 7 feet of unheard of flood waters. Around August 25th I was joking about a post someone had circulated of a predicted 41 inches of rain in our area...and my response was..."there is no way this could be true". Well I guess everything aligned. I never say never anymore..

On a positive note, I'm so thankful for this group.❤

I understand where you're coming from. It's just that a global model persistently indicating a major hurricane in June may raise eyebrows and we need to take a step back and realize that the chances of it actually verifying are super low. Don't want unnecessary hype. And while the Atlantic can be full of surprises, it is only early June. Also, sorry about your mother's house! Hope everything is better by now.

Oh I completely get it. Just for me personally, I've been burned by the thought of anything being "unheard of". ☺