Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

[toad strangler]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1317804043671113729

The GFS did have a W Caribbean ghost earlier in the season as well.

If this is a ghost, it’s by far the most consistent and believable ghost ever. There’s still a trackable disturbance to watch for genesis that’ll emerge in the Caribbean at the same time frame the GFS was predicting over a week ago.

If you look at my post above, conditions seem pretty solid for development, so I have no idea what the models are seeing that prohibits genesis.

Yeah I'm not sold on it just pointing out the earlier season ghost in the same area. Nobody got to excited about that one as it wasn't the time of year for that track. Just gotta be patient ..

[ronjon]

Are we taking our eye off the ball here? Big blowup of convection in the Bahamas this morning. Will it move west or southwest and merge with the central american gyre?

[aspen]

Are we taking our eye off the ball here? Big blowup of convection in the Bahamas this morning. Will it move west or southwest and merge with the central american gyre?

That might be associated with the Yucatán low the GFS and GFS-Para really want to develop. The latter gets it closer to TC status than pre-Zeta, despite it being over land for most of its life.

[TheStormExpert]

It looks like we have been chasing a phantom storm for over a week now incredible.

We’ve been fooled by the GFS’s Western Caribbean phantom storm bias once again!

[ElectricStorm]

I'm still not buying the nothing developing solution at this time, if the models keep trending that way over the next couple of days, then maybe but with the amount of time this will have over water, I would think we would still see at least a TS out of this.

[NDG]

Are we taking our eye off the ball here? Big blowup of convection in the Bahamas this morning. Will it move west or southwest and merge with the central american gyre?

The GFS and Euro show the area of convection over the Bahamas to move west across FL and then into the Yucatan P area by mid week but the GFS is still persistent in a disturbance rotating around it coming out of Panama/S America area during the week.

[northjaxpro]

Are we taking our eye off the ball here? Big blowup of convection in the Bahamas this morning. Will it move west or southwest and merge with the central american gyre?

I am so glad that someone here FINALLY made a keen observation instead of focusing so much attention for over a week now to the SW Caribbean with no incipient area to watch there yet?

Ronjon I am with you that the area of deep convection in the Bahamas is the area to watch!!

[AutoPenalti]

Are we taking our eye off the ball here? Big blowup of convection in the Bahamas this morning. Will it move west or southwest and merge with the central american gyre?

I am so glad that someone here FINALLY made a keen observation instead of focusing so much attention for over a week now to the SW Caribbean with no incipient area to watch there yet?

Ronjon I am with you that the area of deep convection in the Bahamas is the area to watch!!

It’s likely that won’t be the catalyst to this wave that is suppose to develop though.

[SFLcane]

Are we taking our eye off the ball here? Big blowup of convection in the Bahamas this morning. Will it move west or southwest and merge with the central american gyre?

I am so glad that someone here FINALLY made a keen observation instead of focusing so much attention for over a week now to the SW Caribbean with no incipient area to watch there yet?

Ronjon I am with you that the area of deep convection in the Bahamas is the area to watch!!

I think this is the precursor for development.

[northjaxpro]

Are we taking our eye off the ball here? Big blowup of convection in the Bahamas this morning. Will it move west or southwest and merge with the central american gyre?

I am so glad that someone here FINALLY made a keen observation instead of focusing so much attention for over a week now to the SW Caribbean with no incipient area to watch there yet?

Ronjon I am with you that the area of deep convection in the Bahamas is the area to watch!!

It’s likely that won’t be the catalyst to this wave that is suppose to develop though.

I think the area in the Bahamas will eventually drift west/ west southwest over time and get to near the Yucatan , in which it may spin up under decent upper level conditions. We shall see. We will know soon.

[boca]

I started a thread on the Bahamas system that ronjon and northjaxpro mentioned.

[aspen]

The only problem I see in the Caribbean this week is that the NW flank of the gyre/WCar low is a little on the dry side, but otherwise this looks pretty good.

[underthwx]

Are we taking our eye off the ball here? Big blowup of convection in the Bahamas this morning. Will it move west or southwest and merge with the central american gyre?

Excellent observation....It stands out on satellite...could this possibly be an area that may develop?....or as you suggest Ronjon, merge with the Central American gyre, and serve as a catalyst for formation?...

[underthwx]

Sooner or later...this broad low will form...it may be stuck at 30% for now....but it will change.... otherwise the NHC would not be issuing percentages of formation....the NHC has performed some amazing forecasting this season....Delta for example...they nailed it days before the cyclone made it's unfortunate landfall

[blp]

The 06z GEFS is still quite active and has not gone down much.

Two things could be end up being true.

1) GFS overplayed the intensity. Still a known bias with this model in this region.

2) GFS is correct about the most favorable point of orgin being from the S. Carribean and develops the correct area. We know Euro is poor on the cyclogenesis part.

[LarryWx]

The 06z GEFS is still quite active and has not gone down much.

The 6Z GEFS is the least active one in many days I believe. Also, time has been slipping on it as it had been starting many geneses 10/20-22. Now there’s hardly any TC by 10/22. This could very well end up as just another October W Car GFS/GEFS ghost as that has been common for years. If so, we need to be extra wary about this new GEFS version for being too genesis happy (I was warned about this by a pro met) and also mucho kudos to the Euro, which never went crazy in the W Caribbean and has instead been suggesting a fairly weak GOM low forming instead. We’ll see. I’ve seen other ghosts with similar persistence.

There have only been two seasons on record since 1851 with 3 October W Car geneses: 2005 and 1870. 2020 may not become the third after all.

By the way, the 0Z UKMET has no W Car TC. Let’s see what the 12Z shows.

[LarryWx]

12Z GFS at 120 suggests even more delay and that this is likely just a ghost. It may develop it later in this run but time keeps slipping. Casper warning!

[SFLcane]

The 06z GEFS is still quite active and has not gone down much.

The 6Z GEFS is the least active one in many days I believe. Also, time has been slipping on it as it had been starting many geneses 10/20-22. Now there’s hardly any TC by 10/22. This could very well end up as just another October W Car GFS/GEFS ghost as that has been common for years. If so, we need to be extra wary about this new GEFS version for being too genesis happy (I was warned about this by a pro met) and also mucho kudos to the Euro, which never went crazy in the W Caribbean and has instead been suggesting a fairly weak GOM low forming instead. We’ll see. I’ve seen other ghosts with similar persistence.

There have only been two seasons on record since 1851 with 3 October W Car geneses: 2005 and 1870. 2020 may not become the third after all.

By the way, the 0Z UKMET has no W Car TC. Let’s see what the 12Z shows.

The 06z is still quite active Larry not sure how much this is bias or not. We will see

[LarryWx]

The 06z GEFS is still quite active and has not gone down much.

The 6Z GEFS is the least active one in many days I believe. Also, time has been slipping on it as it had been starting many geneses 10/20-22. Now there’s hardly any TC by 10/22. This could very well end up as just another October W Car GFS/GEFS ghost as that has been common for years. If so, we need to be extra wary about this new GEFS version for being too genesis happy (I was warned about this by a pro met) and also mucho kudos to the Euro, which never went crazy in the W Caribbean and has instead been suggesting a fairly weak GOM low forming instead. We’ll see. I’ve seen other ghosts with similar persistence.

There have only been two seasons on record since 1851 with 3 October W Car geneses: 2005 and 1870. 2020 may not become the third after all.

By the way, the 0Z UKMET has no W Car TC. Let’s see what the 12Z shows.

The 06z is still quite active Larry not sure how much this is bias or not. We will see

https://i.postimg.cc/JzcCQfPY/C5632-B21-E3-EF-4-B68-86-DF-F6779-E1-AC96-A.jpg

https://i.postimg.cc/nLFbS3WF/65-A30-ED5-3744-4-C2-B-8208-AB1-EC3-E8-B44-F.jpg

But this is less active than recent runs.

12Z GFS 150 says “Casper alert”. Nothing so far.

[blp]

Icon strongest run yet.