2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

[DioBrando]

oh and not to forget they were all during the cold period (before 1995)

Note that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation is currently in a cool cycle which began in 2013 (Klotzbach/Gray method).

[CyclonicFury]

oh and not to forget they were all during the cold period (before 1995)

Note that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation is currently in a cool cycle which began in 2013 (Klotzbach/Gray method).

Klotzbach's AMO actually turned positive in July FWIW.

Also, the Atlantic has not behaved like the cool cycle the last three years. Three consecutive above average seasons that were way more active than the 1970-94 average.

[DioBrando]

July 2019 AMO Index (Klotzbach website)

+1.87

[DioBrando]

oh and not to forget they were all during the cold period (before 1995)

Note that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation is currently in a cool cycle which began in 2013 (Klotzbach/Gray method).

Klotzbach's AMO actually turned positive in July FWIW.

Also, the Atlantic has not behaved like the cool cycle the last three years. Three consecutive above average seasons that were way more active than the 1970-94 average.

True, in fact I just literally quoted the AMO index in my last post in red.

How many more maps, models and graphs do I have to post to prove that things are changing without resorting to the use of cherry-picking?

[USTropics]

Even if you were to disregard SSTAs, in a -AMO we should be seeing a very dry Sahel/inactive WAM and cooler boreal summers in Europe, the opposite is occurring.

[DioBrando]

Even if you were to disregard SSTAs, in a -AMO we should be seeing a very dry Sahel/inactive WAM and cooler boreal summers in Europe, the opposite is occurring.

We here in Italy had multiple heatwaves, for example, even reaching 50 degrees celcius this summer. It was particularly extreme in France according to a friend who lives there!
And even more heatwaves coming to Italy this week!

[wxman57]

Note that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation is currently in a cool cycle which began in 2013 (Klotzbach/Gray method).

Klotzbach's AMO actually turned positive in July FWIW.

Also, the Atlantic has not behaved like the cool cycle the last three years. Three consecutive above average seasons that were way more active than the 1970-94 average.

True, in fact I just literally quoted the AMO index in my last post in red.

How many more maps, models and graphs do I have to post to prove that things are changing without resorting to the use of cherry-picking?

Note that I did not mention the July AMO value in my post above, only that the AMO appears to have shifted to a cool period starting in 2013, as can be seen below. That spike in July looks quite odd. I suspect that we will see a significant drop in August. During each cool AMO cycles there are years with spikes above normal, as with warm AMO cycles with cool spikes. Generally, though, the Atlantic is in a cool cycle. We won't know until the end of November whether the season averaged out as above or below-normal.

I sent a note to Klotzbach asking his opinion of the July upward spike in the AMO. Will let you know what he things about it.

Ok, enough of this. I now say we're going to see 50 named storms this season, happy?

[wxman57]

Klotzbach says that the warm AMO spike in July was due to a very negative AO/NAO. The warm spot that triggered the spike isn't expected to have any impact on the deep tropics, according to Phil. He thinks the spike is only temporary, going down in the coming months.

I asked Phil to clarify what the warm spike might mean as far as the rest of the season. He says that the AMO index during the summer has a fairly low correlation with hurricane activity peak-season.

The only changing I'm seeing out there is the Atlantic becoming more hostile than a month ago. Remember, less storms than normal does not mean no big threats.

[shiny-pebble]

Note that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation is currently in a cool cycle which began in 2013 (Klotzbach/Gray method).

Klotzbach's AMO actually turned positive in July FWIW.

Also, the Atlantic has not behaved like the cool cycle the last three years. Three consecutive above average seasons that were way more active than the 1970-94 average.

True, in fact I just literally quoted the AMO index in my last post in red.

How many more maps, models and graphs do I have to post to prove that things are changing without resorting to the use of cherry-picking?

I respect your opinion, but weren't you saying literally a week ago that this season would be a bust and didn't you cancel it? Not much has happened in the past week that has made predicted conditions flip.

Sent from my LG-H700 using Tapatalk

[DioBrando]

Klotzbach's AMO actually turned positive in July FWIW.

Also, the Atlantic has not behaved like the cool cycle the last three years. Three consecutive above average seasons that were way more active than the 1970-94 average.

True, in fact I just literally quoted the AMO index in my last post in red.

How many more maps, models and graphs do I have to post to prove that things are changing without resorting to the use of cherry-picking?

I respect your opinion, but weren't you saying literally a week ago that this season would be a bust and didn't you cancel it? Not much has happened in the past week that has made predicted conditions flip.

Sent from my LG-H700 using Tapatalk

that's because i did a little research using maps, models and real-time sites to find out what the current conditions are and compared them to last week where large wads of tutts and shear was being displayed on maps (now they are trending towards clearing up.) dry air is the main issue right now promoted by a suppressed phase of the mjo. once that goes into a better phase, the sinking air can retreat and dry air can peter out. i compared trends opposed to what was actually going on at the meantime. then i had a look at the 2018 and 2017 threads to this one too. i then talked about this with some of my other real-life friends also interested in severe weather, tropical weather and climate change.
so that's why i decided to back off from abrupt season canceling.
i mean, i'm learning more about the weather and climate change and i only got into looking into it more since last year, so i'm looking at it from all different angles.

[LarryWx]

The following 18 years had no August TC geneses on record:
1997, 1961, 1941, 1929, 1923, 1922, 1921, 1920, 1919, 1914, 1912, 1907, 1905, 1902, 1884, 1876, 1868, and 1857.

Note that during the satellite era, there have been only 2 in 59 years (3%). Pre-satellite era, when it was much easier to miss a fish storm, there were 16 in 109 years or a much higher 15%. So, the 3% is much more likely to be closer to reality.

[wxman57]

Our latest analogs from July, which included a projection of a weak El Nino (+0.5 to +0.6) were as follows:

1968 - 8/4/0 45 ACE
1976 - 10/6/2 84 ACE
1979 - 9/5/2 92 ACE
1993 - 8/4/1 39 ACE
1991 - 8/4/2 36 ACE

I'm checking with our long-range guy to see if he's computed the latest analogs based on warm-neutral conditions in the Nino 3.4 area. Note that a weak El Nino typically has little impact on Atlantic activity. It takes a moderate to strong El Nino to hinder development, so there should not be much change in the analogs going to warm-neutral. Note that the analog years may differ from Klotzbach as he uses current conditions while we look at predicted conditions across the tropics.

Interesting that all analog years had at least 1 tropical cyclone threat for the US East Coast. 1976 with Belle, 1979 with David (then Frederic into the Alabama coast), 1993 with Emily and 1991 with Bob. Finally, 1968 had Gladys into west Florida during October.

Yes, and I pointed that out in my outlook presentations this spring. I just got my coworker's new analogs based on warm-neutral in Nino 3.4:

1958 - 12/7/3 109 ACE
1959 - 14/7/2 77 ACE
1960 - 8/4/2 73 ACE
1968 - 8/4/0 45 ACE
1979 - 9/5/2 92 ACE
1980 - 11/9/2 149 ACE
1981 - 12/7/3 100 ACE
1993 - 8/4/1 39 ACE

Average is 10/6/2 with 86 ACE for those analogs. I plotted all Caribbean & U.S. hurricane landfalls for these analogs (below). I'm not seeing a pattern that is similar to 1980 out there. Allen was the first hurricane I ever worked. A number of hits along the East U.S. Coast in the analogs, despite the relatively low numbers and ACE for the analogs. Like I said, lower than average numbers doesn't mean a decreased risk of a hurricane landfall, necessarily.

http://wxman57.com/images/analogs.JPG

Note that my long-range guy for the past 30 years is out of the office today. He tells me that the analogs I posted above are mostly secondary and not primary analogs. He'll be in the office tomorrow to give me the primary analogs for Aug-Nov.

[NDG]

Interesting that all analog years had at least 1 tropical cyclone threat for the US East Coast. 1976 with Belle, 1979 with David (then Frederic into the Alabama coast), 1993 with Emily and 1991 with Bob. Finally, 1968 had Gladys into west Florida during October.

Yes, and I pointed that out in my outlook presentations this spring. I just got my coworker's new analogs based on warm-neutral in Nino 3.4:

1958 - 12/7/3 109 ACE
1959 - 14/7/2 77 ACE
1960 - 8/4/2 73 ACE
1968 - 8/4/0 45 ACE
1979 - 9/5/2 92 ACE
1980 - 11/9/2 149 ACE
1981 - 12/7/3 100 ACE
1993 - 8/4/1 39 ACE

Average is 10/6/2 with 86 ACE for those analogs. I plotted all Caribbean & U.S. hurricane landfalls for these analogs (below). I'm not seeing a pattern that is similar to 1980 out there. Allen was the first hurricane I ever worked. A number of hits along the East U.S. Coast in the analogs, despite the relatively low numbers and ACE for the analogs. Like I said, lower than average numbers doesn't mean a decreased risk of a hurricane landfall, necessarily.

http://wxman57.com/images/analogs.JPG

Note that my long-range guy for the past 30 years is out of the office today. He tells me that the analogs I posted above are mostly secondary and not primary analogs. He'll be in the office tomorrow to give me the primary analogs for Aug-Nov.

I just think that if the AMO does not go back to negative during the peak of the hurricane season the average ACE out of all of them might be too low. IMO.

[Emmett_Brown]

If you look at a longer range chart of the AMO, there are often pockets of cool years within an overall warm trend. For example, there was a pronounced 2-3 year dip into negative values in the late 1940s during the last positive AMO. It returned to positive until the 1960s, before finally flipping to negative, and staying mostly negative until the mid 1990's. So, we could easily see a return to the positive AMO before it finally ends in another decade or so. Or, this could indeed be the end of the recent positive AMO... But if so, that would make the recent positive AMO shorter than the previous cycle by about a decade. Also, 2017 had an ACE of 225, which is not characteristic of cold AMO (as CyclonicFury pointed out)

[HURRICANELONNY]

Now that's fake news. Can't believe they can get away posting that:
https://nypost.com/2019/08/12/us-could- ... perts-say/

[AnnularCane]

Now that's fake news. Can't believe they can get away posting that:
https://nypost.com/2019/08/12/us-could- ... perts-say/

Well, that's certainly a way to get attention. Of course, the actual article says nine hurricanes could develop, not hit the US. I guess they want clicks.

Hey, I "could" win the lottery too!

[LarryWx]

Now that's fake news. Can't believe they can get away posting that:
https://nypost.com/2019/08/12/us-could- ... perts-say/

So, the NY Post is taking the high end of the NHC 5-9 hurricane forecast range and saying the US could be hit with 9 Hs. Talk about a sensationalizing headline! Of course, one US H hit has already happened, Barry. So, I guess they're saying watch out for possibly 8 more H hits.

[hurricanehunter69]

Just like a pop corn thunderstorm...The tropics can heat up (flip the switch ) and become very active in quite a hurry! We have a warm-neutral ENSO, below average shear, and above average SST's. The tropics would likely be very active If it weren't for a significant outbreak of mid-level dry air, ( SAL ). I would still bet on a 2/1/0 line in August and 6/4/2 in Sept, 4/3/1 Oct and 1/1/0 the rest of the way. 15/9/3

[DioBrando]

Just like a pop corn thunderstorm...The tropics can heat up (flip the switch ) and become very active in quite a hurry! We have a warm-neutral ENSO, below average shear, and above average SST's. The tropics would likely be very active If it weren't for a significant outbreak of mid-level dry air, ( SAL ). I would still bet on a 2/1/0 line in August and 6/4/2 in Sept, 4/3/1 Oct and 1/1/0 the rest of the way. 15/9/3

THIS. In fact... lemme do a little made-up scenario based on your numbers.
Bolded names: majors
Italics: non-majors
(RED NAME = MOST INTENSE)

I've put some analogs for each name from the scenario based on what I think could happen based on state and models so far. Tell me if you (anyone) disagree with anything.

August
Chantal https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Cindy_(2017)
Dorian - 1 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Hurricane_Isaac

September
Erin https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Tropical_Storm_Jose
Fernand - 3 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Hurricane_Edouard
Gabby - 1 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Humberto_(2007)
Humberto - 4 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Edouard_(1996) OR https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Hurricane_Fabian
Imelda - 2 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Irene_(1999)
Jerry https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Tropical_Storm_Hermine

October
Karen - 2 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Humberto_(2001)
Lorenzo - 4 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Charley
Melissa https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Tropical_Storm_Mindy
Nestor - 1 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Hurricane_Lisa

November
Olga https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Tropical_Storm_Peter

For Humberto, option 1 seems more likely than option 2.

Overall, this seems pretty feasible should the switch flip (that suppressed phase of the MJO and the dry air need to go otherwise it would be active!)
Does this seem like your scenario?

[LarryWx]

Now that's fake news. Can't believe they can get away posting that:
https://nypost.com/2019/08/12/us-could- ... perts-say/

The NY post headline says 9 Hs could hit the US in 2019 vs the record high of 7 (1886) back to 1851. So, this deserves two of these: