Trough of low pressure in Western Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

[SFLcane]

Really something to see the gfs be so persistent with developing a tc in the western Carib for many many runs only to drop it. I am still in the development camp for now but that may change during the next couple of days we will see.

[LarryWx]

Icon strongest run yet.

https://i.ibb.co/GpcbPYK/icon-mslp-wind-watl-61.png

Icon has not been a good model due to having a tendency toward fake storms, especially when on its own.

[SouthFLTropics]

GFS through 150 hours...

[LarryWx]

GFS through 150 hours...

https://i.imgur.com/GuJzGCT.jpg

It is getting close to the time to give up the ghost, folks.

[aspen]

Still no development, although the disturbance is still there. What is the GFS seeing that kills this?

[LarryWx]

Really something to see the gfs be so persistent with developing a tc in the western Carib for many many runs only to drop it. I am still in the development camp for now but that may change during the next couple of days we will see.

We’ve seen the GFS and GEFS do this before in the W Car in October with similar extreme persistence only to later say “I fooled you”. Just look back at some past October threads here at this forum.

[LarryWx]

Still no development, although the disturbance is still there. What is the GFS seeing that kills this?

The W Car TC so far is just a model cartoon. So, nothing has been killed since it has yet to exist.
Through 180, nothing on the 12Z GFS.

[StPeteMike]

Still no development, although the disturbance is still there. What is the GFS seeing that kills this?

Maybe the disturbed weather in the Bahamas? Whatever gets going there will slowly drift in the direction of where this was supposed to head to. While models earlier just gave this potential system just increased moisture but nothing organized like now. Also, the models have backed off on how strong this system would develop in the early stages, which would had eliminated the impact of the Bahama system. A weaker system will feel the impacts.

[Loveweather12]

No it’s not. Especially with Ensembles showing support. Nope not time

GFS through 150 hours...

https://i.imgur.com/GuJzGCT.jpg

It is getting close to the time to give up the ghost, folks.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

If I had a dollar for every time this forum has attempted to kill off a modeled storm only for it to develop regardless, I wouldn't have to worry about my college expenses.

[Loveweather12]

If I had a dollar for every time this forum has attempted to kill off a modeled storm only for it to develop regardless, I wouldn't have to worry about my college expenses.

Thank you for saying that. If conditions are right you can’t question Mother Nature despite what computer is saying

[LarryWx]

No it’s not. Especially with Ensembles showing support. Nope not time

GFS through 150 hours...

https://i.imgur.com/GuJzGCT.jpg

It is getting close to the time to give up the ghost, folks.

GEFS support has also been vanishing albeit in a more subtle manner. The GEFS has a genesis bias.

[blp]

Really something to see the gfs be so persistent with developing a tc in the western Carib for many many runs only to drop it. I am still in the development camp for now but that may change during the next couple of days we will see.

We’ve seen the GFS and GEFS do this before in the W Car in October with similar extreme persistence only to later say “I fooled you”. Just look back at some past October threads here at this forum.

Larrywx, it's not the same. The GFS ghost of the past was the only model onboard and it would keep pushing back development outside 240hr. This was different in that you had CMC on board and the time-frames were inside 240. Now you have 12zIcon and just checked 12 CMC onboard so it is not a ghost.

We might still be fooled here but not because we fell.for the same GFS antics.

[CourierPR]

If I had a dollar for every time this forum has attempted to kill off a modeled storm only for it to develop regardless, I wouldn't have to worry about my college expenses.

Yet another word to overuse--ghost. Let's wait because, as the great philosopher, Yogi Berra, once said, "It ain't over till it's over."

[underthwx]

All of you have shared many well thought out scenarios with this potential system...all of them possible...time will soon tell...

[toad strangler]

NHC is at 30% through Day 5 with the lemon further W than the GFS was teasing for days. The 12z GFS today has the energy but does not develop and send it right into Central America.

[blp]

12z CMC stronger vs 00z says not yet folks. It bet Euro comes on board now lol.

[LarryWx]

Really something to see the gfs be so persistent with developing a tc in the western Carib for many many runs only to drop it. I am still in the development camp for now but that may change during the next couple of days we will see.

We’ve seen the GFS and GEFS do this before in the W Car in October with similar extreme persistence only to later say “I fooled you”. Just look back at some past October threads here at this forum.

Larrywx, it's not the same. The GFS ghost of the past was the only model onboard and it would keep pushing back development outside 240hr. This was different in that you had CMC on board and the time-frames were inside 240. Now you have 12zIcon and just checked 12 CMC onboard so it is not a ghost.

We might still be fooled here but not because we fell.for the same GFS antics.

Both the ICON and CMC have a history of being genesis happy. If/when either the Euro or UKMET has something, I’ll become bullish.

12Z UKMET says no W Car genesis through 12Z on 10/24.

[toad strangler]

12z CMC much stronger says not yet folks.

https://i.ibb.co/b2q8MHv/gem-z850-vort-watl-22.png

12z CMC is well E of the NHC.

[SconnieCane]

We’ve seen the GFS and GEFS do this before in the W Car in October with similar extreme persistence only to later say “I fooled you”. Just look back at some past October threads here at this forum.

Larrywx, it's not the same. The GFS ghost of the past was the only model onboard and it would keep pushing back development outside 240hr. This was different in that you had CMC on board and the time-frames were inside 240. Now you have 12zIcon and just checked 12 CMC onboard so it is not a ghost.

We might still be fooled here but not because we fell.for the same GFS antics.

Both the ICON and CMC have a history of being genesis happy. If/when either the Euro or UKMET has something, I’ll become bullish.

12Z UKMET says no W Car genesis through 12Z on 10/24.

Euro couldn't see a TC outside of 48 hours this year unless it strolled up and smacked it in the face.