TD 10...Back Again

dwg71 · #821 Postby **dwg71** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 1:34 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Folks this has been happening for days now(Up and Down)...Its certainly not written off yet...Wait till that Shear calms Jose is going to be born!!!! I say Cat 1 in the Bahamas..

You can certainly gloat if that happens, because right now your the only one seeing that way. Its an open wave..

#822 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 1:34 pm

It has been really interesting to see how the system has been trying to organize every night, but during the day all goes downhill.

clfenwi · #823 Postby **clfenwi** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 1:34 pm

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/rtwx/ewall/ewalltropatl.html

They've since pulled it, but this site had model verifications for Irene for each period (00/06/12/18Z) through the previous 120 hours. I've forgotten which day it was (it was before the recurve fully materialized), but there was one period where CLIPER's 96 hour forecast nailed the position of Irene (while nothing else was notably close).

Of course, blind men playing darts can throw bulls-eyes every once in a while...

Sanibel · #824 Postby **Sanibel** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 1:36 pm

It's important to consider the system's personality. This one was always weak, but we had a good flare-up after a long down phase last night. When Irene tracked west in similar conditions she also showed steady simmering tendencies.

This one could be dissipating, and the Caribbean depth doesn't aid it either. But wait to see if it fires another flare-up before writing it off...

DESTRUCTION5 · #825 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 1:36 pm

dwg71 wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Folks this has been happening for days now(Up and Down)...Its certainly not written off yet...Wait till that Shear calms Jose is going to be born!!!! I say Cat 1 in the Bahamas..

You can certainly gloat if that happens, because right now your the only one seeing that way. Its an open wave..

LP is still there...Nothings changed since this morn...Right on track

artist · #826 Postby **artist** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 1:39 pm

ok - if you look at the visible here rather than using the real close up you can better see where the circulation is (or I see it at least). I see the circulation at approximately 18.5, 58.8. Click on it as a single image and pin point the area then go back and do an 8 image loop.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastnhe.html

#827 Postby **micktooth** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 1:46 pm

XTD 10 is going to have a really tough time coming up. Its about to run smack into the upper level westerly winds which are currently out ahead of it. It will be interesting to say the least, but I think it's not going to develop any time soon. The central and southwestern Carribean flare ups do look a little interesting.

Javlin · #828 Postby **Javlin** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 1:51 pm

That might be an upper air circulation maybe I would not venture far enough to call it at the surface.

Sanibel · #829 Postby **Sanibel** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 1:54 pm

GOES loops are down...

#830 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 1:56 pm

Sanibel wrote:GOES loops are down...

really? They still work fine for me.

<RICKY>

WindRunner · #831 Postby **WindRunner** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 2:04 pm

Well, recon has found 24kt winds but no circulation, the one thing that we (I) thought that it held on to.

#832 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 2:05 pm

WindRunner wrote:Well, recon has found 24kt winds but no circulation, the one thing that we (I) thought that it held on to.

are they finished or still looking around?

<RICKY>

Recurve · #833 Postby **Recurve** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 2:09 pm

The low to the northwest actually has better convection now, appears to be firing up on the color-enhanced floater #1 loop...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

#834 Postby **storms in NC** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 2:36 pm

Sanibel
Well you you thinking?

WindRunner · #835 Postby **WindRunner** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 2:40 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
WindRunner wrote:Well, recon has found 24kt winds but no circulation, the one thing that we (I) thought that it held on to.

are they finished or still looking around?

<RICKY>

They're done now, those were the top winds.
All the wind was 117-145 degrees, no circ.

#836 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 2:44 pm

WindRunner wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:
WindRunner wrote:Well, recon has found 24kt winds but no circulation, the one thing that we (I) thought that it held on to.

are they finished or still looking around?

<RICKY>

They're done now, those were the top winds.
All the wind was 117-145 degrees, no circ.

Good. Then it is finally over with now. Alright. Can we all move on now please?

<RICKY>

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #837 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 2:47 pm

Theres nothing to move to.

#838 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 2:50 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Theres nothing to move to.

Sure there is. Luis and I have been talking about that big wave about to move off Africa in a few hours to perhaps tomorrow morning. If that can hold its convection while it emerges into the Atlantic that would be the next one to watch.

<RICKY>

#839 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 2:52 pm

I think our friend SAL will not help this new wave to develop.

MiamiensisWx · #840 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Thu Aug 18, 2005 2:55 pm

HURAKAN wrote:I think our friend SAL will not help this new wave to develop.

At least not for now...

TD 10...Back Again

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