Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

[NDG]

Noticeable weaker on this run through 72hrs.

[cycloneye]

Start of 00z GFS Run It starts with a 1007 mb low in SW Caribbean.

00z GFS at 24 Hours EPAC low,nothing yet at Caribbean.

00z GFS at 30 Hours Trying to form low in SW Caribbean.

00z GFS at 48 Hours 1006 mb low just north of Costa Rica.

00z GFS at 60 Hours 1007 mb low in the same place.

00z GFS at 72 Hours Stucked over land in CentralAmerica.

00z GFS at 90 Hours Low just north of Honduras.

[boca]

Hugging the Yucatan lower coast thru 90hrs.

[NDG]

GFS still builds a ridge aloft, so no problems in the upper levels initially, land interaction will be its biggest problem.

[cycloneye]

00z GFS at 114 Hours Nothing new,still inland.Our friend from the east shows up.

[RL3AO]

Tries to get into the BOC in 120hrs

[Opal storm]

Unless that ridge breaks down, this thing doesn't have much of a chance. Maybe a brief shot in the BOC but I don't even know about that.

[cycloneye]

00z GFS at 144 Hours Low in BOC.

00z GFS at 156 hours Weak low in BOC.Definitly a much weaker run.Season canceled?

[boca]

It looks like a broad trough of low pressure instead of something trying to get its act together. Do I smell a bad run. The low jumped over the Yucatan back to the coast at 168hrs.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_168m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_156m.gif

[RL3AO]

Definitly a much weaker run.Season canceled?

I think its time to create a new Texas winter thread. This tropical stuff just isn't going to do anything.

[cycloneye]

00z GFS at 168 Hours Nothing interesting to note.

[boca]

Its easier to figure out the timoing of the cold front pulling thru the area rather than the GFS smelling out where to put this phantom low. We have 43 pages on a GFS huntch gotta love it.

[cycloneye]

00z GFS at 216 Hours

Things look a bit more interesting with a lopsided 1004 mb low.

00z GFS at 240 Hours TAMPA landfall.

[boca]

At 252hrs they have a 1003mb over West Palm.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_252m.gif

[boca]

Wxman57 pointed out that the GFS model keeps on delaying the timing of this low getting its act together. He's on to something.

[JonathanBelles]

We've figured it out in chat: :p the Low is waiting for me to graduate lol

[cycloneye]

00z GFS Loop Here is the 00z loop.System gets act together after its stucked over land.Passes Florida Peninnsula and moves off the U.S East Coast.

[NDG]

00z CMC also comes out with a weaker low, tracks it towards BOC by day 6.

[Aric Dunn]

nogaps 180 hrs

[Aric Dunn]

nogaps 00z
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http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation