NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC (Is invest 96L)

[northjaxpro]

cycloneye, you beat me to that mention lol. I can't ever recall seeing so many posts on a thread on Storm2K with a system which has not even been declared as an invest yet.

I will say this though. Should this system goes on to organize into a significant tropical entity, this thread will implode as well

[Aric Dunn]

Waiting patiently for the first visible to see how the swirl is doing. If it's still there I predict an invest in the next couple of hours.

Very hard to see anything in this loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

if u use the rgb u can track it all night its still there now north of the yucatan. the is not so much there anymore

[cycloneye]

cycloneye, you beat me to that mention lol. I can't ever recall seeing so many posts on a thread on Storm2K with a system which has not even been declared as an invest yet.

I will say this though. Should this system goes on to organize into a significant tropical entity,

Well,not this one. The 96L thread will explode if what you describe occurs and may try to beat the Ivan's thread that had over 600 pages.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM CHRIS...LOCATED ABOUT 630 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS... SHOWERS...AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA.
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH IN A DAY OR SO...AND SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARD
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/ROBERTS

[StormingB81]

The news station here in Orlando said that if it gainbs strength it will head west and if it stays a weak low it will move over Florida..not sure if that was the right thing to say or not.

[northjaxpro]

Thanks cycloneye. I meant explode, not implode LOL....

But yeah, it is about to get very crazy on Storm2K as soon as this system is tagged as an invest. Maybe today we will see this finally occur.

[tolakram]

The swirl lives.

[cycloneye]

The swirl lives.

http://img692.imageshack.us/img692/1296/zzgulfswirl.jpg

And we can emigrate to Active Storm/Invests forum very soon.

[vaffie]

Looking at 6Z NAM right now, shows it moving north and then, about 150 miles south of Louisiana, it starts drifting westward

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=06%2F21%2F2012+06UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=1000_500_thick&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

[tolakram]

live visible loop, only 3 frames so far: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=3

[cycloneye]

Special Feature discussion:

THE 1010 MB LOW HAS DISSIPATED LEAVING A SURFACE TROUGH AT
21/0900 UTC EXTENDING FROM 29N85W THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO
20N87W. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN A DAY OR SO...AND SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE
FROM 22N81W TO 21N87W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF CUBA...SE GULF OF
MEXICO AND NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO S OF 29N W OF 90W...
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 19N W OF 77W...AND PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS S OF 26N W OF 75W ACROSS FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF HISPANIOLA.

[cycloneye]

8:05 AM EDT discussion of Gulf of Mexico:

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL NW TO THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS COAST COVERING ALL BUT THE FAR
NE GULF. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO THE W OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF 92W TO
INLAND OVER MEXICO AND TEXAS. AN UPPER LOW IS INLAND OVER S
ALABAMA EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH TO OVER THE FAR NE GULF. THE
ACTIVITY OVER THE E GULF IS DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION ABOVE. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF AS A NEW LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER YUCATAN
TODAY AND MOVE INTO THE S CENTRAL GULF THROUGH SAT POSSIBLY AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO TRACK NE TO THE E
GULF SUN AND MON.

[Aric Dunn]

The shear is dropping the anticyclone is nosing its way up into the central gulf. Things should begin to fire today.

[NDG]

Latest H85 vorticity map shows strongest vorticity still over the SE GOM, elongated for sure.

[tolakram]

06Z GFS shows no real development until east of Florida, similar to 00z.

[Rgv20]

0zECMWF Ensemble Means continue to point out that the forecast can change in a hurry. The operational ECMWF run by 144hrs has this potential TC in the Eastern Gulf while you can see below the Ensemble Means want to place it in the Western/Central Gulf. It is interesting the battle that is going on between the Operational run and the Ensemble Members of both the GFS&ECMWF...lets see who wins!





Just another graphic with the same forecast stamp as above, the purple shading just indicates how much uncertainties is going on the the Euro model.

[cycloneye]

Off Topic= To let know the members that we got the first hurricane of 2012 Atlantic Season!!!!! Go to Active Storms/Invests forum to see the breaking news.

[NDG]

IMO, early vis sat shows that a larger circulation is trying to get going along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, elongated a bit from W to E, while the little swirl in the SE GOM is racing to the west getting absorbed by the larger circulation developing.

[tolakram]

I think the swirl is dissipating. Probably the fact that the images and loops we have access too are delayed a bit.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

I agree, just north of YP is now the area to watch.

[crimi481]

Not positive - but the original cloudless swirl seems to be the player - as the big blob of weather between W. Cuba and Yucatan appears to be migrating north towards that low swirl (filling in the center)

Ant cyclone is forming - as the ULL's surrounding Gulf now far enough away and beggining to ventilate the S.E. Gulf zone. This could be a formidable system in time - bringing tremendous downpours to Fl west coast

All above is just unofficial guess work