Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas

#841 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 9:16 pm

00z NAM at 24 hours

For those who like to see what the NAM has in every run,here is the 00z run in 24 hours.

00z NAM in 36 hours

NAM in 36 hours

jhamps10 · #842 Postby **jhamps10** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 9:20 pm

looks like NAM is still on it's 12z idea.

#843 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 9:20 pm

00Z Nam rolling in

At H+30

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_030l.gif

#844 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 9:21 pm

perk wrote:Judging by the nasty tone of your post you're the one that's taking this personal.

Maybe if you had a little history...you could judge. If you are going to say "quite a few pro-mets...."then considering there were only 3 or 4 of us posting that day...then you mean all of us...and I know that is not the case. That didn't happen and anyway...what happened then doesn't have any bearing on now...and we were talking about a sheared system off of Florida...and the weather conditions off of FL will not produce a Humberto. Period.

And what I am referring to is the tendency of some on this board to take it personally. Every time some get their hopes up...and others (not just pro-mets) bring in a little sanity...it gets like this. Some act like you just said their child, the QB, needs to be benched because he can't complete a pass.

Look...if you DISAGREE with the shear forecast...then talk about the 40 kts...the upper low...where it will be and how it won't shear a system...NOT about "quite a few pro-mets"...who knows who they are...who didn't see Humberto going cane...and anything can happen so stop it...

...And so yes...maybe a little personal because it gets a little old. I post facts. Derek posts facts...wxman57 and the others posts facts. If you disagree with the facts...I have no problem with that...but just put up some facts.

Also...this is nothing new b/w me and EWG. He gets bent out of shape 3 or 4 times a winter at me when he sees the 540 line dip below Houston on the 240 hr GFS...and I tell him not to get his hopes up...He won't get any snow. :lol:

#845 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 9:22 pm

NAM 200mb

Nasty upper winds in 36 hours

Ed Mahmoud · #846 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 9:23 pm

Not even JB says this is a TS in less than 3 days.

Possibly a TS by late Thursday was his call, in GOMEX, heading West or Northwest, possibly (but not a definite call yet) becoming a hurricane.

Florida needs the rain, doesn't it?

My gut, Louisiana, if something forms. A few years back, everything went to North Carolina, then Florida got a decade's worth of hurricanes in one year, now it seems like everything goes to Louisiana.

Gut, is, not official or educated, nor too deeply thought about.

#847 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 9:24 pm

cycloneye wrote:00z NAM at 24 hours

For those who like to see what the NAM has in every run,here is the 00z run in 24 hours.

00z NAM in 36 hours

NAM in 36 hours

Hope everyone is enjoying the big upper low and the 55 kts of wind off of Florida (which is where the sfc low is) :lol:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_036l.gif

#848 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 9:27 pm

NAM 200mb at 48 hours

Relentless upper winds.

Extremeweatherguy · #849 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 9:27 pm

Here we go again... AFM and stratosphere747 gang up on Extremeweatherguy.. :roll:

It is kind of funny actually. I mean it wasn't even like I singled AFM out anywhere in my post. All I basically said was that we should never let our gaurd down because Humberto showed us that anything can happen in the tropics. There was no attacking, there was no "calling out" of a particular met, there was really no harm in my post. Sure, I admit that I missed AFM's post on the other page saying that shear could lighten once in the central GOM and that he was talking only about the short term, but does that give him the right to respond in a rude manner toward me? I don't really think so (IMO).

BTW: When I said "quite a few mets" I wasn't referring just to S2K mets. I was talking about most of the TV mets and a few other internet/forum mets that were giving the swirl of clouds (that later became Humberto) basically little to no chance of development up to even 12 hours before it took off. It was not a personal attack of AFM or Derek Ortt in particular.

Ed Mahmoud · #850 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 9:27 pm

The 540 dm line, in my uneducated observation, works best further North, and away from immediate coast.

The 850 mb 0º line is a better predictor of snow, it would seem, in my part of Texas. What I really watch for is us being just South of the 850 mb freezing line, with the 540 dm line 100 miles or so further North, because we can get ice.

I got to go into work 2 hours later than normal due ice this past winter, in fact.

Still remembering when it snowed enough to coat my car and palm trees on Christmas Eve. Now, that was special.

#851 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 9:28 pm

Interesting discussions, AFM/Derek. I agree, AFM, that the upper low could be the spark that gets some kind of low going, possibly near Florida on one side or the other. But the question I have is how the global models would handle the upper-level features (i.e., the low) given that they don't really forecast tropical systems well. 5-day forecasts are often pretty bad as far as upper wind predictions, particularly if the model "thinks" the low its developing isn't tropical in nature. So maybe the shear you're seeing isn't really going to be there by Friday?

This system really does have me concerned. With a ridge building to the north and a slow west movement beneath it, it would seem like quite a favorable environment for TC development/intensification. The "fly in the ointment" is that upper low. What if the models are wrong with its strength and/or location (or even its existence) by Friday? My gut is telling me that this system could be a real problem. Or maybe it's all the Corn Chex I just ate.

perk · #852 Postby **perk** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 9:29 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:There is some history there Perk, and I think AFM i being more than cordial and not taking it "personal."

Well that's your opinion, and you're certainly welcome to it, and i mine.

Website · #853 Postby **Brent** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 9:29 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
cycloneye wrote:00z NAM at 24 hours

For those who like to see what the NAM has in every run,here is the 00z run in 24 hours.

00z NAM in 36 hours

NAM in 36 hours

Hope everyone is enjoying the big upper low and the 55 kts of wind off of Florida (which is where the sfc low is)

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_036l.gif

OK, is this really September? What is with the horrible shear EVERYWHERE?

#854 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 9:30 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:Not even JB says this is a TS in less than 3 days.

Possibly a TS by late Thursday was his call, in GOMEX, heading West or Northwest, possibly (but not a definite call yet) becoming a hurricane.

Florida needs the rain, doesn't it?

My gut, Louisiana, if something forms. A few years back, everything went to North Carolina, then Florida got a decade's worth of hurricanes in one year, now it seems like everything goes to Louisiana.

Gut, is, not official or educated, nor too deeply thought about.

And that is my feelings. The upper low kicks it off but it can't do anything facing 50 kts of shear. It will have to wait until it gets into the central or western GoM. There the upper levels should be good late week/weekend.

I am personally rooting AGAINST formation. It is my anniversary (10th) and we are going away for the weekend. My wife already coming unraveled because she peeked at Jeff's email about possible tropical development. She's afraid we will have to cancel...because I will have to work if this develops.

And there is why we can be so negative on development sometimes. Development usually means the canceling of family plans for us pro-mets because we are called into work. Gone are the days of watching for fun...unless its a fish. :wink:

Website · #855 Postby **Brent** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 9:31 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS
FROM THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA EASTWARD A FEW HUNDRED MILES OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND BAHAMAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA...BUT SLOW
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WESTWARD OVER FLORIDA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. :sleeping:

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID ARE LOCATED JUST EAST OF
THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS. REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD.

SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIMITED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT
CONTINUES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER KNABB/RHOME

#856 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 9:32 pm

NAM 200mb at 54 hours

50kt upper winds.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #857 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 9:33 pm

I have not seen as many upper level lows in the peak of the season since 97. WOW. If there is really 40 knots of shear over this system...Then don't expect anything to develop period. If its some what favorable then watch this pattern...Reminds me of that system that moved across Florida and raced across east to west the gulf of Mexico a few years ago, and became a hurricane just as it moved inland. Maybe this time there will be enough weakness to pull it into texas. We will see. I'm sure with that system the enviroment was not to unfavorable.

I'm going to watch the Typhoon for the next few days. Then maybe start watching this.

#858 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 9:35 pm

cpdaman wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Winds across South Florida are increasing...seems like something is brewing offshore:

NAPLES CLOUDY 79 74 84 N6 29.97R
W PALM BEACH CLOUDY 77 73 87 N8 30.00R
FT LAUDER-EXEC CLOUDY 82 73 74 NE12 29.97R
FT LAUDERDALE CLOUDY 85 71 63 NE9 29.96R
POMPANO BEACH CLOUDY 82 72 71 NE14 29.97R
PEMBROKE PINES CLOUDY 83 72 69 NE8 29.99R
OPA LOCKA CLOUDY 84 72 67 NE7 29.97S
MIAMI CLOUDY 84 71 65 NE8 29.97R
MIAMI BEACH N/A 84 74 73 E14 29.97R
WEST KENDALL CLOUDY 82 71 69 E6 29.97R
HOMESTEAD CLOUDY 82 74 75 NE7 29.98R

gator i am on the water in s. boca and the wind picked up and has been steady since 8 pm or so

coconut and royal palms are really blowing in the breeze tonight....

Stratosphere747 · #859 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 9:35 pm

perk wrote:
Stratosphere747 wrote:There is some history there Perk, and I think AFM i being more than cordial and not taking it "personal."

Well that's your opinion, and you're certainly welcome to it, and i mine.

No worries...I have to play nice now, and AFM can more than take others to the "woodshed." I've been there myself over the years here..

On-topic - I'm still waiting for something to actually develop, though it has been interesting to see so many models try and do something over the last few days...

#860 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 9:37 pm

NAM 200mb at 60 hours

Upper winds down to 30 kts in EGOM.

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