Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

[Rainband]

Lets just keep the tropics free of activity until after I get home on the 8th

[KWT]

I get the feeling that the reason why it creates a much weaker run is because it spread the energy much thinner thanks to the system appears to be also trying to form in the EPAC...as a song states "this town ain't big enough for the both of us"

Going to be interesting to see where we go from here, if the EPAC side forms then even if the Sw Caribbean system also forms it'll be forced WNW eventually until synoptic features finally drag the two apart.
I suspect we will se 90E before 90L, may well see the first later today.

[Meso]

Don't think the 00z EURO was posted.

The 72 hours is interesting too : http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008052700!!chart.gif

[KWT]

Yep you can see its trying to form the two areas of low pressure on the 0z ECM. if that happens a BOC track is most likely.

[Meso]

06z 84 Hour NAM

The NAM is going with E.Pac development too.I don't care where this thing forms anymore,as long as something does


GFS 06z MODEL RUN

24 Hours
First signs of a closed low in the Caribbean

66 Hours
Loses the low

90 Hours
The low is back,but headed towards the Yucatan.Similar to EURO if it emerges weak into the BOC

120 Hours
A broad low located on the Yucatan

162 Hours
Carries on hovering around the Yucatan,with another low in the E.Pacific

204 Hours
Elongated low

[Thunder44]

Given how much shear is in Carribean now, I think it's more likely that development, if any, will occur first in the EPAC. The CMC and GFS seem to be gradually coming in further west with development as well.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

The hotspot!!!

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON MAY 26 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL AMERICA
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS MINIMAL
AND REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THIS AREA. HOWEVER...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY OR DRIFTS EASTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY IN PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND
NICARAGUA.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/AGUIRRE

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE MAY 27 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA WESTWARD INTO
THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS LIMITED AND ANY DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA
IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES LITTLE.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Chacor]

It's orange (20-50% in next 48 hours) on the GTWO.

[HURAKAN]

Medium: 20%-50%. First time used.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE MAY 27 2008

RECENT
AND AND CURRENT PRES ANALYSES REVEAL THAT THIS MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO BE TIED IN TO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES WHICH COVERS THE FAR
ERN PACIFIC ROUGHLY FROM 04N TO 15N E OF 100W TO CENTRAL
AMERICA. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS AREA MAY EVENTUALLY
CONSOLIDATE INTO A SPECIFIC LOW CENTER WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS...AND LIKELY TRACK TO THE NE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND
THEN MORE NLY IN 3 OR 4 DAYS.

[Meso]

Does anyone have the URL to that image with the coloured blocks across the Atlantic which displays chance of tropical development,I seem to have lost my bookmarks over the past year.



GTWO = Get The 'What' Out?

[Ed Mahmoud]

UK Met is a Pac system that dies crossing C. America...

WTNT80 EGRR 270535



MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



AND ATLANTIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 27.05.2008



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 10.3N 88.0W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 28.05.2008 10.3N 88.0W WEAK

00UTC 29.05.2008 10.7N 89.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 29.05.2008 11.3N 90.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 30.05.2008 11.8N 91.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 30.05.2008 12.2N 91.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 31.05.2008 13.3N 91.6W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 31.05.2008 14.0N 92.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

00UTC 01.06.2008 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH





THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT





MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

[Chacor]

I've never seen the UKMET output use "intense" before. All the previous ones I've seen never go beyond 'strong'. One to watch for sure. Will be interesting to see if it verifies.

[Ed Mahmoud]

JMA viewed at AccuWx PPV site says stays in the Pacific, I'm gonna say 90L isn't in the cards, but only the Shadow really knows.

[gatorcane]

I've been skeptical about 90L mainly because the EPAC is heavily favored climatologically and the bulk of the energy has been on the EPAC side anyway. Even if something developed on the EPAC side, crossing Central America to the Western Caribbean is generally a rare thing. The fact the models are starting to fold on any Western Caribbean development does not surprise me. It's only May 27th afterall, give it another month.

[NDG]

Believe it or not, anything trying to form in the Caribbean has the best LL convergence and UL, and before somebody say, look at the levels in the EPAC, that is not anywhere close where low pressure is trying to form on the pacific side

[Meso]

The 12z NAM forecast for 24 Hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/nam/12/images/nam_slp_048s.gif

48 hour NAM