NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC (Is invest 96L)

[Sanibel]

Broad sheared mess in my opinion. The northern center usually wins due to poleward.

[Stormcenter]

Let's be honest here, this is still one big disorganized mess that looks like it's in no hurry to develop. IMO

[Ivanhater]

Let's be honest here, this is still one big disorganized mess that looks like it's in no hurry to develop. IMO

True and all the models have shown this being the case for the next couple of days. However, with models including the reliable Euro rapidly strengthening this in the Gulf, it has people on watch. Hopefully it does become nothing.

[tailgater]

Latest H85 vorticity map shows strongest vorticity still over the SE GOM, elongated for sure.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8vor.GIF

Latest
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8vor.GIF

You can see the low on the northern coast of the Yuctan taking over on the high res vis loop.

edit by tolakram: removed live images

[blazess556]

I would say that the area which will eventually develop is located around 25N and 85W. It will gradually move to the northwest and develop over the next couple of days.

[hurricaneCW]

How likely is it that we'll get Debby with this system, and what's the time frame approx.

[canes04]

Keep an eye on the North coast of the YP. I think our low will develop there and drift North today.
Shear appears to be on the decrease this morning.
Can someone provide obs from this area?

[boca]

I would say that the area which will eventually develop is located around 25N and 85W. It will gradual move to the northwest and develop over the next couple of days.

The GFS as well as the Euro predict the system to move NE.

[cycloneye]

The squadron is ready for Friday afternoon to go out there. Here is today's TCPOD.


NOUS42 KNHC 211400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JUN 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-034

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 --
A. 22/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 22/1600Z
D. 23.0N 89.0W
E. 22/1730Z TO 22/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A MISSION
AT 23/1800Z NEAR 24.5N 89.0W

[blazess556]

I would say that the area which will eventually develop is located around 25N and 85W. It will gradual move to the northwest and develop over the next couple of days.

The GFS as well as the Euro predict the system to move NE.

Most of the guidance is all over the place once we get out past 3 days. Will it get picked up by the trough or not? That is the question. It should move off to the northwest but after that, will it continue to the west, or get picked up and move off to the NE?

[Aric Dunn]

both low are going to interact and merge. not one wins over the other.

[JPmia]

Where is the invest??

[tolakram]

live 10 frame loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

That swirl is still barely with us, but convection now starting to fire north of the YP. If you speed this loop up, and drop the one bad frame, you get a sense it might be getting better organized.

[cycloneye]

Where is the invest??

Is imminent that it will be tagged. They are waiting IMO for the area North of Yucatan to get more organized.

[ROCK]

06Z NOGAPS abandons the splitting the energy / NE scenario and prefers a western solution....this is a flip for sure....

[wxman57]

Better issue the invest before it reaches TS strength. Low forming just north of Yucatan. Banding east of low. SW winds at Cancun. Well on its way to developing. I'd give it about a 99.999% chance of being Debby within 48 hrs.

[Nikki]

Better issue the invest before it reaches TS strength. Low forming just north of Yucatan. Banding east of low. SW winds at Cancun. Well on its way to developing. I'd give it about a 99.999% chance of being Debby within 48 hrs.

Thank you so much for chiming in wxman57!

[blazess556]

Last nights European run was very bullish with this system and I agree as this "invest" is looking very good as noted by wxman57. banding becoming more noticeable near the yucatan peninsula.

[tailgater]

While looking at Chris I noticed that the 06 runs of both the GFDL and hwrf seem to leave this in the GOM for 126 hrs. SURE HOPE IT'S A INVEST by then.

[boca]

Better issue the invest before it reaches TS strength. Low forming just north of Yucatan. Banding east of low. SW winds at Cancun. Well on its way to developing. I'd give it about a 99.999% chance of being Debby within 48 hrs.

Florida or Texas who gets Debbie