2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[Aric Dunn]

JB now on board via twitter

@BigJoeBastardi
10m10 minutes ago
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Okay NOW THE TROPICS HAVE MY ATTENTION! ECWMF move of MJO into phase 1 then perhaps 2/3 says to look out late next week and week after


@BigJoeBastardi
9m9 minutes ago
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GFS still looks way overdone but western gulf is area I am watching in 6-10

I guess the only thing that is predictable in this whole situation is JB. lol

[Kingarabian]

Even with the OP Euro showing a decent vort in the WGOM, only 2 EPS members have GFS like solutions till day 8. Day 10, I see around 4 members burying a weak low into Mexico.

[stormreader]

JB now on board via twitter

@BigJoeBastardi
10m10 minutes ago
More
Okay NOW THE TROPICS HAVE MY ATTENTION! ECWMF move of MJO into phase 1 then perhaps 2/3 says to look out late next week and week after


@BigJoeBastardi
9m9 minutes ago
More
GFS still looks way overdone but western gulf is area I am watching in 6-10

I guess the only thing that is predictable in this whole situation is JB. lol

You called it, Aric! I didn't know he was "Big Joe"!

[stormlover2013]

Euro slowly maybe getting on board

[TheAustinMan]

Aiding the potential development of a system in the southwestern Caribbean would be the modeled approach of the convectively-coupled Kelvin wave (read as: atmospheric disturbances that promote divergent winds in the upper-levels) currently over the Eastern Pacific. Of course, cyclogenesis does not require these periodic waves, but one rule of thumb is that they can suppress development in the three days leading up to the wave's peak, and then enhance development in the three days following the passage of peak Kelvin wave convection. Per the GFS, the EPAC kelvin wave should peak over the Western/Southwestern Caribbean on June 11. By the rule of thumb, this would enhance convective activity around June 11-14 over the region of interest.

Current look at Kelvin wave anomalies. 114KB. Source: Michael J. Ventrice

[USTropics]

Also would strongly suggest looking at the 500mb verification of the different models (http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model ... rification). While the various models have underestimated the strength of ridging in the Caribbean, they have overestimated the strength of ridging extending from the GOM towards the EPAC. This has impacts on genesis location (particularly the UKMET).

Model verification of 500mb heights from 06/03 (red) compared to current analysis (blue). Notice ECMWF/UKMET have overestimated ridging:

[NDG]

The strongest EPS member out of 4 or 5 members that are showing development, for whatever is worth.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS about to emerge into GOM from the Yucatan...

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I wouldn't be surprised if this ended up being a quick BoC spinup like TS Arlene in 2011.

[gatorcane]

Gaining strength and heading NW stronger than 12Z:

[gatorcane]

Slowing down and intensifying at 162 hours:

[aperson]

Not really digging the steering collapse close to TX on the 18z. If Euro jumps on board tonight (I expect it to with 5H verification), I think that's the next big thing to watch.

[gatorcane]

Wow still intensifying:

[Haris]

such consistency in track amazes me.

I am starting to get on board!

This will be a TX and Mexico system btw.

[stormlover2013]

Still long ways to go, I don’t look at anything past 4-5 days

[gatorcane]

Seems at least a mention by the NHC would make sense out of respect for the GFS showing possible development near the Yucatan within 5 days.

[TheAustinMan]

such consistency in track amazes me.

It's been somewhat consistent today, but since May 31 or so (whenever this system was first modeled in some fashion), there is virtually no portion of the United States Gulf Coast that hasn't seen the GFS send a tropical cyclone up their way, with the lone exceptions being the Everglades and the Rio Grande Valley. I've heard talk of the GFS not pulling off the usual windshield-wiper shenanigans, but that impression might be due to the fact that this has been somewhat of a windshield wiper in slow motion. The overall trend has been more west, though, since the GFS started modeling this potential system.

1.1 MB. Source: Plotted in Google Earth.

[aperson]

There was a lot of inconsistency due to the modeling of the Omega block over North America. However, now that it's resolving there really isn't any sort of escape route east of around the Louisiana border. The modeling of the Arctic cyclone would need to change substantially to move that block appreciably in the 5-7 day time frame.

https://i.imgur.com/90ZD7pK.mp4

[cycloneye]

But Avila has zip:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Jun 9 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Alyono]

development chances clearly are NOT zero. They are closer to 30 percent