Tropical Wave in Bay of Campeche (Is Invest 91L)

[Frank P]

Frank P, if thats the case, its possible we could see the vorticity focusing more on the northern side of the wave, which could have some pretty dramatic changes down the road, very interesting week ahead with this one

looking at that EURO ensembles run, it's amazing the only ones that go inland out to 240h is the ones heading towards in the northern gulf, all the others look like a gang war in the BOC... weird, tells me one of two things, some members speed up the forward motion causing the system to be influenced by the strong cool front that will be coming down next week turn it north. Or the system misses the front and meanders around in the BOC and SW GOM for some time. All that of course depends on the system developing and this model comes to fruition... haven't a clue what will happen

[underthwx]

EPS upticked in the BOC, also looks like its combining our gulf low and the system into one, the members all kinda merge together, interesting

I read that the broad low near the middle texas coast...is forecast to move inland by Tuesday....so...based on that fact...the broad low will not be a influence on the eastern carribean wave?....right?...

[Stratton23]

Frank P the operational Euro has almost a nicholas track, weak low riding up the mexican coast line just off shore, it will be interesting, but thinking their might be some sort of general weakness over the western gulf, we will see, but it could get very interesting down the road

[Frank P]

radar out of PR

[Stratton23]

yeah their definitely is some rotation in that region, interesting

[Frank P]

Convection is the northern lobe is spitting outflow boundaries now and cloud tops cooling, and the southern lobe the convection is deepening as of the latest IR images. System looks to me to be moving in a WNW motion.

[cajungal]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/Bv7S1Twy/IMG-1308.jpg [/url]
12z Euro ensembles a out to 10 days

Will still be watching here in SE Louisiana

[Stratton23]

18z ICON develops a more defined vortex and eventually becomes a TS on approach to the yucatan, it also eventually merges with the gulf low again, im wondering if thats becoming a real possibility, the euro kinda shows the same thing happening

[skyline385]

This is interesting, AIFS 12z suddenly got onboard the GoM system from the gyre over Yucatan (from our AOI) trend.

12z EPS also had an uptick in members showing that solution

[Teban54]

18z GFS has much better vorticity at all levels in just 6-12 hours, continuing through currently available parts of the run (60 hrs):



Edit: Now loading through 102 hrs and I feel it may be an ugly run. 1005 mb, but more importantly, further north than earlier runs.

[WaveBreaking]

18z run has a nearly closed 1004 mb low in the WCAR @ 108 hours. More north than previous runs too.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Happy hour GFS delivering as always.

[Frank P]

This could be the first attempt at a hot tower since I've been watching this system, appears at the last image. Basically right in the front center of the blob. Convection looks high on the IR.

[WaveBreaking]

18z gfs starts firing convection around a center @ 120 hours.

[Teban54]

Happy hour GFS delivering as always.

Unlike most 18z runs, though, we should know whether it has merit in real time in just 12-18 hours. This run shows a big convective burst at 1z (3 hours from now) that continues for at least 6 hours (albeit fading out a bit at the next frame). If vorticity is still strong tomorrow morning, it would suggest 18z GFS may be catching up with short-term trends rather than doing typical happy hour stuff.

[WaveBreaking]

Happy hour GFS delivering as always.

Unlike most 18z runs, though, we should know whether it has merit in real time in just 12-18 hours. This run shows a big convective burst at 1z (3 hours from now) that continues for at least 6 hours (albeit fading out a bit at the next frame). If vorticity is still strong tomorrow morning, it would suggest 18z GFS may be catching up with short-term trends rather than doing typical happy hour stuff.

https://i.postimg.cc/gjHvKBh7/image.png

If this latest pulse of convection near the middle of the wave axis that Frank P pointed out maintains itself. Then the 18z run might be onto something.

[DunedinDave]

Looks like this may ramp up but fortunately it will looks like it will run into CA and potentially crush it.

[LadyBug72]

This is interesting, AIFS 12z suddenly got onboard the GoM system from the gyre over Yucatan (from our AOI) trend.

12z EPS also had an uptick in members showing that solution

https://i.imgur.com/T1MKfx5.png

https://i.imgur.com/4WgEUDs.png

Can someone please explain what the different colored lines mean?

[Stratton23]

I have a strong suspicion that the GFS is too progressive with the upper air pattern, I think its lifting the trough out too fast before ridging builds in, considering it has a hurricane just off the yucatan peninsula, it definitely would feel that trough a but more before turning west

[mantis83]

Looks like this may ramp up but fortunately it will looks like it will run into CA and potentially crush it.

yes sir weakens pretty dramatically once it crashes into mexico.....