Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas

#861 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 9:38 pm

Whoa....in 6 hours, the low moves from off the coast of Jacksonville to the northeastern gulf at 60 hours?

#862 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 9:38 pm

By the way, my coworker on swing shifts informs me that the 12Z ECMWF has easterly winds at 10 kts in the upper levels across the central-eastern Gulf vs. the 18Z GFS with 15kt westerly winds. Like I said, what if the models aren't handling the upper air pattern well because they don't handle tropical systems well?

#863 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 9:39 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:Here we go again... AFM and stratosphere747 gang up on Extremeweatherguy.. It is kind of funny actually. I mean it wasn't even like I singled AFM out anywhere in my post. All I basically said was that we should never let our gaurd down because Humberto showed us that anything can happen in the tropics. There was no attacking, there was no "calling out" of a particular met, there was really no harm in my post. Sure, I admit that I missed AFM's post on the other page saying that shear could lighten once in the central GOM and that he was talking only about the short term, but does that give him the right to respond in a rude manner toward me? I don't really think so (IMO).

BTW: When I said "quite a few mets" I wasn't referring just to S2K mets. I was talking about most of the TV mets and a few other internet/forum mets that were giving the swirl of clouds (that later became Humberto) basically little to no chance of development up to even 12 hours before it took off. It was not a personal attack of AFM or Derek Ortt in particular.

EWG...nobody is ganging up on you...and I have to admit...you have gotten a lot better. But really...are we going to let our guard down? Of course anything can happen in the tropics. The last words I spoke to my boss at work at 3:30 on Wed was that I anticipated a landfalling pressure of 987-990mb...and that was in the Cat1 range...especially given the tight pressure gradient. He thought I was crazy. Of course anything can happen.

I'm sorry if I took it like I did...but even you have to admit in the past you have been a noble defender of all systems...both tropical and winter...which may have any impact on the SE Texas area. You live in a state of red alert. :lol:

And that was my point. I wasn't picking in the storm...and I agree with WXMAN's post...I actually think it has a good chance in the central/western GOM "IF" something gets going per the models. The atmosphere looks good there. It looks terrible off of Florida...which is what we were talking about.

#864 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 9:42 pm

NAM 200mb at 66 hours

Upper winds relax in most of GOM

#865 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 9:42 pm

wxman57 wrote:By the way, my coworker on swing shifts informs me that the 12Z ECMWF has easterly winds at 10 kts in the upper levels across the central-eastern Gulf vs. the 18Z GFS with 15kt westerly winds. Like I said, what if the models aren't handling the upper air pattern well because they don't handle tropical systems well?

...And that is not a big what if...considering they don't handle them well normally anyway.

I know I was impressed with the upper level pattern over the central and western GOM by the weekend...at least on the 18 z run. The upper low fills and the high to the north helps out with the easterlies. Maybe the Euro sees it happening earlier?

#866 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 9:44 pm

Pffffft! Testing! Can anybody hear me? ;-)

I need to head off to bed now as I think I'll be having a very busy next 5-7 days with action in the Gulf. Careful believing too much about what the models are predicting. They're good for guidance, but they can also steer you in the wrong direction.

Night all.

#867 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 9:45 pm

Right now is a great time to learn. We currently have a few pro mets on board discussing and/or debating on the future of this possible system. I've already learned a bit more in the past 10 minutes of reading. Like AFM said, let's not get confused with the talk of high shear and favorable conditions. The high shear looks to be in the short term....prior to affecting Florida. Better conditions look probably right now as the system nears the central gulf.

I'm very interested to see what the 00z GFS shows. I really wish I could see the 00z Euro tonight, but there's no way these eyelids will open

#868 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 9:45 pm

cycloneye wrote:NAM 200mb at 66 hours

Upper winds relax

The real key to all this actually lies in that upper low over CA. How fast does it dig down....which builds the high out to the east of Texas...which decreases the winds aloft over the GoM. If that is faster than progged...the winds over the GoM are better...quicker.

#869 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 9:48 pm

NAM 200mb at 72 hours

A small pocket of 30 kt upper winds in WestCentral gulf.

'CaneFreak · #870 Postby **'CaneFreak** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 9:50 pm

"This system really does have me concerned. With a ridge building to the north and a slow west movement beneath it, it would seem like quite a favorable environment for TC development/intensification. The "fly in the ointment" is that upper low. What if the models are wrong with its strength and/or location (or even its existence) by Friday? My gut is telling me that this system could be a real problem. Or maybe it's all the Corn Chex I just ate."

I could not agree more. It would have dual outflow channels to work with and a cold upper air temps to work with. Not to mention the upper level ridge to its north creating a no shear environment. The key is...does it survive past the upper low in its attempt to get west of it? Notice folks, this thing is going to have to go cross through the upper low's path to get to the western Gulf. So, lots of questions with very few answers at this present moment.

miamicanes177 · #871 Postby **miamicanes177** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 9:50 pm

wxman57 wrote:Interesting discussions, AFM/Derek. I agree, AFM, that the upper low could be the spark that gets some kind of low going, possibly near Florida on one side or the other. But the question I have is how the global models would handle the upper-level features (i.e., the low) given that they don't really forecast tropical systems well. 5-day forecasts are often pretty bad as far as upper wind predictions, particularly if the model "thinks" the low its developing isn't tropical in nature. So maybe the shear you're seeing isn't really going to be there by Friday?

This system really does have me concerned. With a ridge building to the north and a slow west movement beneath it, it would seem like quite a favorable environment for TC development/intensification. The "fly in the ointment" is that upper low. What if the models are wrong with its strength and/or location (or even its existence) by Friday? My gut is telling me that this system could be a real problem. Or maybe it's all the Corn Chex I just ate.

I don't want this to get lost on the earlier page between the bickering back and forth. No doubt this could be a player in the GOM. We've only had 3 hurricanes so far so it's almost like we're due anytime now for another one. Me an wxman57 must have ate the same thing because my gut is telling me to watch out for development too.

#872 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 9:55 pm

NAM 200mb at 78 hours

50 kt upper winds in extreme Eastern gulf,A very small pocket of 30 kt shear continues in the WestCentral Gulf.

#873 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 9:55 pm

It doesn't look to move much once in the gulf according to the 00z NAM.

Stratosphere747 · #874 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 9:56 pm

jaxfladude · #875 Postby **jaxfladude** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 9:56 pm

skysummit wrote:Whoa....in 6 hours, the low moves from off the coast of Jacksonville to the northeastern gulf at 60 hours?

8 inches at Jacksonville Beach, Fla.
Now that is tropical(they say it was a Nor'easter) :lol:

#876 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 10:01 pm

NAM 200mb at 84 hours

In summary,the 00z NAM at 200mb shows upper winds screaming in the gulf until 60 hours and after that they relax a bit.

#877 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 10:02 pm

looks like some convection is blowing up just east of the bahamas as the front interacts with the tropical wave passing by to the south...

Note if this area gets going...chances of intensification before crossing the FL peninsula are greater.

MiamiensisWx · #878 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 10:03 pm

cycloneye wrote:NAM 200mb at 84 hours

In summary,the 00z NAM at 200mb shows upper winds screaming in the gulf until 60 hours and after that they relax a bit.

Interestingly, that scenario would provide a better upper-air environment for the remnants of Ingrid near the Bahamas. The key word is "if" the NAM nails the evolving pattern, and I (like everyone) takes this model with a degree of skepticism.

#879 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 10:05 pm

MiamiensisWx wrote:
cycloneye wrote:NAM 200mb at 84 hours

In summary,the 00z NAM at 200mb shows upper winds screaming in the gulf until 60 hours and after that they relax a bit.

Interestingly, that scenario would provide a better upper-air environment for the remnants of Ingrid near the Bahamas. The key word is "if" the NAM nails the evolving pattern.

It is possible Ingrid can be a player in all this mess -- by the end of this week. So far Ingrid is not making my predictions of regeneration looking good..

but she could regenerate down the road and that would be interesting.

#880 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 10:06 pm

cycloneye wrote:NAM 200mb at 84 hours

In summary,the 00z NAM at 200mb shows upper winds screaming in the gulf until 60 hours and after that they relax a bit.

They do relax some...but they are still not favorable over the Gulf through the entire run (thru 12z Fri) since the remain cyclonic over the entire GoM.

So...if the NAM is correct...nothing to get too excited about thru Friday.

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