Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

[Duddy]

I'm gonna call it early,

the GFS got it right!!!!

It is now my favorite model for this season!

[hurricanefloyd5]

I've been skeptical about 90L mainly because the EPAC is heavily favored climatologically and the bulk of the energy has been on the EPAC side anyway. Even if something developed on the EPAC side, crossing Central America to the Western Caribbean is generally a rare thing. The fact the models are starting to fold on any Western Caribbean development does not surprise me. It's only May 27th afterall, give it another month.

If I am not mistaken the GFS makes the low disappear for about 24hours and after the GFS brings back that same low in a diffrent location, am I right????

[NDG]

There is still is a nice MLC near 11.2N & 81.2 in the southern Carib.

[Thunder44]

I do think we will see one low center form in the SW Carribean by Wednesday or Thursday, but there will another one forming in the EPAC at the same time. So they are going to compete with each other and that will keep them from organizing too quickly. Where they decide to consolidate is where we will have true development and this is where the models disagree on. The Euro, Ukmet, and the NAM say it's having been saying it's in EPAC. The other models say it's in NW Carribean now. I'm leaning toward EPAC because conditions are more favorable there NOW for something spin up more quickly. Of course, it may be more likely the models may be too agressive with development and neither gets really well organized.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Not that it seemed like any great shakes last year in the tropics, the new NAM is rolling in...

Seems like through 60 hours, a EPac and Caribbean forecast, although the EPAC is more significant. At least per the NAM


Multiple centers may be the models way of predicting a badly organized system.

[RL3AO]

[Aric Dunn]

I have to say there appears to a low forming in the SW carrib this morning as well as the east pac! it all a broad low but there are two distinct low forming within the broad trough of low pressure extending from the east pac to the SW carribean .. i would not be surprised if we some more orginization...

[Aric Dunn]

well 12z gfs initializes the two lows i mentioned..

[Aric Dunn]

18hrs

looks to have little better handle on everything this morning..

[Aric Dunn]

30 hrs it does not lose it this time ...

[KWT]

Yep the two center that do appear to be present within the broad circulation is what has been suggested by the models for a little while now. What will be key is what center develops the stronger, whatever one does will be the one that becomes a tropical cyclone whilst the other will slowly decay and fill.

[gatorcane]

well there does seem to be some broad rotation in the SW Caribbean this morning. This visible loop pretty clearly shows this:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

BTW - where did everybody go?

[Aric Dunn]

we have a floater over it.. from ramsdis http://www.cira.colostate.edu/cira/RAMM ... pical.html

[Aric Dunn]

this run the gfs appears to make the caribbean low stronger now ....

[KWT]

Thats a cool image simply because you can see the broad region of energy present, now the key is just where a better defined center tries and forms. I'm getting increasingly confident that something is going to develop out of this regions its just a matter of where and what basin!

[Aric Dunn]

quite a bit stronger ... 54 hrs

[gatorcane]

GFS puts the tropical system right over Florida at 240 hours:

[Aric Dunn]

Thats a cool image simply because you can see the broad region of energy present, now the key is just where a better defined center tries and forms. I'm getting increasingly confident that something is going to develop out of this regions its just a matter of where and what basin!

there is a loop of that image ! click that link

[NDG]

GFS comes out with better upper level conditions for the system in the Caribbean, with a trough of low pressure moving into the EPAC region initially.

[KWT]

Should be noted though gatorcane that was the 0z run, 12z run won't reach that stage for another 40 minutes or so but will be interesting to see where the model goes.

A weaker EPAC system will mean a more northerly tracking Caribbean system and therefore greater chance of developing on several fronts.