Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)

[jlauderdal]

Surface pressures are already quite low in the western Caribbean (1007-1009mb). Lowest pressure is north of Honduras/east of Belize. Banding is starting to show up on satellite imagery, and it's not Matthew's circulation. I'd say there's plenty there to initiate an invest. Development is looking likely, probably in 48-72 hrs. Northward track toward Florida and possibly into or along the East U.S. Coast seems like a good bet.

And I don't think this will be the last of the storms forming there. Low pressures will continue across the region. This may be the 2nd of 3 or 4 storms that form there over the next 2 weeks. Time for Florida's hurricane season.

I just looked at the satellite...and it is really coming together near 17.5/83. There is some really good mid level vorticity there.

I noticed the low pressures this morning. Cudos to the globals for seeing this pretty far in advance. I guess you and I are obsolete.

you guys are one model run away from being back in business so dont file for unemployment just yet

[SFLcane]

NWS in miami seems optimistic on a rain event with deep tropical mositure lifting northward.

ALTHOUGH STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, IT SEEMS MOST PLAUSIBLE THAT THIS LOW WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY FORMING INTO A STRONG TROPICAL SYSTEM. HOWEVER, A LARGE AMOUNT OF DEEP RICH MOISTURE COULD CERTAINLY BE TRANSPORTED INTO SOUTH FLORIDAWEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE A SECONDARY LOW MAY ALSO FORM TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME, HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH JUST A MODEST INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS POSSIBLE.

[jlauderdal]

Thanks for the arguments folks but let's get back on topic please

I concur....please take your spat to our wonderful PM service...or I will be forced to do it for you

just start a cge match thread, yesterday it was ivan and gator posting about the strength of the trough and today its eric vs rock, rock is tense because he doesnt get the system and eric is tense because he lives in low lying miami lakes which floods when the clouds go dark...

[jlauderdal]

flying into key weston october 4 and staying till the 11th
should the storm threat be over by then

you posted that same question about a week ago and we said we would get our crystal balls and let you know, same thing applies however it does look to be rather unsettled for the next few weeks, fyi accuwx does 15 day forecast so if you believe in such things you should give that a look

[HURAKAN]

If I understand well the latest GFS, after this system moves over Florida, another low or lows also form over the NW Caribbean and then also ride the trough?

[cycloneye]

The squadron is ready to fly on full gear starting tommorow. This means 96L is imminent.

Code: Select all

000
NOUS42 KNHC 261600
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT SUN 27 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
         TCPOD NUMBER.....10-117

I.   ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
     1. SUSPECT SYSTEM (NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN)
        FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
        A. 27/1800Z
        B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
        C. 27/1430Z
        D. 18.0N 85.0W
        E. 27/1700Z TO 27/2300Z
        F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

        FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
        A. 28/0000Z
        B. NOAA9 02GGA SURV
        C. 27/1730Z
        D. N/A
        E. N/A
        F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

        FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
        A. 28/0600,1200Z
        B. AFXXX 0316A CYCLONE
        C. 28/0245Z
        D. 19.0N 85.0W
        E. 28/0500Z TO 28/1200Z
        F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

     2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
        A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
        B. PROBABLE G-IV MISSION FOR 29/0000Z WITH TAKEOFF
           AT 28/1730Z.
     3. REMARK: THE NSF/NCAR G-V WILL FLY A 7 HR RESEARCH
        MISSION INTO AND AROUND THE SUSPECT AREA BETWEEEN
        41,000 AND 43,000 FT WITH TAKEOFF AT 27/1200Z.



[KWT]

Should have an invest very soon for this area given the obs that are out there.

Tough call in terms of strength, the models aren't overly agressive but as I said this morning they tend to struggle at times with these sorts of set-ups and how strong systems can become..

ps, as Wxman57 said expect several systems to form in the Caribbean in the next 2 weeks...

[Vortex]

If the GFS is to be beleived we crank out another storm over the NW carribean by weeks end..I've never seen anything like this in 30years of watching the tropics that I can recall..should it verify

[lrak]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

mid level spin?

[jlauderdal]

12Z NAM looks to move a Strong TS/Hurricane right over SFL Wednesday evening...




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

seems way too fast, i need some time to dust off the big guy out in the garage and get 50 gallons for it

[Vortex]

By Saturday part 2 starts cranking up over NW carribean..if the consistancy contiues and there's additional support may need a new thread as this evolves in the 96-144 time frame..

12Z GFS H144


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal144.gif

[MortisFL]

Correct, GFS develops another low.

[ConvergenceZone]

By Saturday part 2 starts cranking up over NW carribean..if the consistancy contiues and there's additional support may need a new thread as this evolves in the 96-144 time frame..

Wow, if that is true Vortex, Florida may end up with some major flooding concerns over the next couple of weeks, not to mention, the 2nd one may end up
even stronger as far as winds are concerned.

[MortisFL]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=18&lon=-84&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&numframes=10

mid level spin?

Appears to be one. Maybe an invest later today.

[sfwx]

I guess we here in Florida should be expecting a little more than the 40% chance of rain that is being predicted by our local (Orlando) mets for later this week?

From the Melbourne NWS discussion this a.m. regarding the 40% rain chance:

GIVEN THAT THERE IS STILL NO INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS
FORECASTED TROPICAL SYSTEM FOR THE MODELS TO GRAB ONTO...CONFIDENCE
IN ANY OF THE GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO TRACK AND NORTHWARD SPEED
REMAINS LOW. WILL THEREFORE STICK CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR NOW
WITH RAIN CHANCES AROUND 40% AND TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

[Aric Dunn]

The GFS looks like a hose... spraying out TC .... lol

[Vortex]

reminds we of the african wave train and the tc's that it pumped out every few days...only problem is the hose has FL all over it...

[Vortex]

part 2 another storm/hurricane for south FL within a week?



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal240.gif

[AJC3]

By Saturday part 2 starts cranking up over NW carribean..if the consistancy contiues and there's additional support may need a new thread as this evolves in the 96-144 time frame..

Wow, if that is true Vortex, Florida may end up with some major flooding concerns over the next couple of weeks, not to mention, the 2nd one may end up even stronger as far as winds are concerned.

If you look at the 12Z GFS accumulated precip fields through day 10, it's pretty obscene. 6"+ everywhere south/east of a line from Cape Coral to Saint Augustine, 10"+ south/east of a line from Naples to Daytona Beach, and bullseyes of 28" over Florida Bay and 25" just east of Cape Canaveral. The Caymans, Jamaica and Cuba also get abused. This setup is looking like it's gonna produce a serious multi-day rain event for someone. I think in this respect, the issue is now becoming exactly where the surface frontal boundary will stall, because along and east of it looks really, really wet for several days. The 12Z GFS shows this pattern setting up farther north/west than the 00Z ECM. Either way, both the GFS and ECM portend a significant heavy rain threat for at least the NW Caribbean, the Keys and South Florida.

[cycloneye]

First Mission towards NW Caribbean area will be tommorow afternoon.

SUSPECT SYSTEM (NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 27/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
C. 27/1430Z
D. 18.0N 85.0W
E. 27/1700Z TO 27/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT