2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[Alyono]

:uarrow: Alyono, you see all storms that could potentially form in August becoming hurricanes, with one of those two becoming majors?

yeah. Always thought this was a quality over quantity season. A slightly more active version of 2014

[Alyono]

those wanting US action are aware that we DO have a US threat that has recon scheduled for Friday?

[tarheelprogrammer]

Almost all ensemble members have a storm around Cape Verde below around hour 222:


Around hour 384 there is 7 members that I can tell have the storm still:


One of those members seems to be consistently showing a monster storm heading toward Florida. While it is unlikely to verify I will say the GEFS members seem to be showing less shear than the operational run.

Also, the GEFS run shows this at hour 48:


The change from 48 hours to 384 is eye opening.

[Siker]

12z Euro has a 1009mb low with that wave as it comes off Africa.

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF has a kink or very weak circulation north of Hispanola/PR at 240 hours.

[StormHunter72]

Some of Us watch for information. I think if you want a hobby buy a train set or a drone. Don't wish for a disaster. I mean really...

[Hammy]

Some of Us watch for information. I think if you want a hobby buy a train set or a drone. Don't wish for a disaster. I mean really...

While I'm not personally wishing for a disaster, a nice sprawling tropical storm would be nice to bring some needed rain to northern Georgia.

[StormHunter72]

They will either continue to go into the Eastern Pacific, conditions may not be adequate enough for them to develop in in the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, or they will lack the energy needed to spin up.

What's your thoughts on things wxman57?

You missed my point. I was questioning your apparent desire for a deadly hurricane to develop in the western Caribbean or Gulf.

I'd like to put in my two cents. I don't think anyone wishes death and destruction of others, but as enthusiasts of nature's more powerful side, destruction sometimes happens, and one cannot deny that is part of the edge that makes this hobby addicting.

Furthermore, even if one wanted destruction, it is an impotent sentiment since cyclogenesis is literally one of the few things we have zero control over.

All we can do is watch and warn. The danger that we want to avoid is unfortunately also a necessary component that gives our science its relevance.

Praying for a slow season. While I see your point it still does not make sense to be excited about the formation of a disaster In my opinion.

[StormHunter72]

Some of Us watch for information. I think if you want a hobby buy a train set or a drone. Don't wish for a disaster. I mean really...

While I'm not personally wishing for a disaster, a nice sprawling tropical storm would be nice to bring some needed rain to northern Georgia.

Much needed rain is fine but we have to draw a line between the two.

[gatorcane]

Models may not be showing much over the next two weeks but remember how quickly things can change in the tropics - even our state-of-the-art models can miss things in the medium-range sometimes let alone out through 384 hours. Look at Joaquin in the Bahamas area from last year which became one of the strongest hurricanes in the Atlantic basin in recent years.... The first discussion by NHC called for upper-level winds to become unfavorable as models were not showing much in the 5-day NHC forecast window. Then suddenly within one run I recall the ECMWF switched from bearish to bullish. All from one isolated ULL traversing the Atlantic that hit the sweet spot at the right time...and at the end of September too.

Old Joaquin thread:
viewtopic.php?f=83&t=117586&hilit=joaquin

[floridasun78]

if what happening in east Pacific happen here Atlantic side going be cazy

[StormHunter72]

if what happening in east Pacific happen here Atlantic side going be cazy

Usually if the Pacific is active the Atlantic activity will be quelled.

[WPBWeather]

Models may not be showing much over the next two weeks but remember how quickly things can change in the tropics - even our state-of-the-art models can miss things in the medium-range sometimes let alone out through 384 hours. Look at Joaquin in the Bahamas area from last year which became one of the strongest hurricanes in the Atlantic basin in recent years.... The first discussion by NHC called for upper-level winds to become unfavorable as models were not showing much in the 5-day NHC forecast window. Then suddenly within one run I recall the ECMWF switched from bearish to bullish. All from one isolated ULL traversing the Atlantic that hit the sweet spot at the right time...and at the end of September too.

Old Joaquin thread:
viewtopic.php?f=83&t=117586&hilit=joaquin

Yes Joaquin, the Cat 4+ that got past most forecasts but thankfully turned before hitting FL. If it had hit, the billions of dollars in property lost (not to mention lives) could have caused a world wide insurance calamity. With our over built coasts here, just ONE storm can cause world wide negative effects. I also note the 33 lost on the El Faro sinking off Puerto Rico.

[ninel conde]

If conditions were favorable this would be a good look for the atlantic. High over the NW atlantic and nice steering. If this were the set up for aug the east coast and gom would have cause to worry.

[Hammy]

Strongest band of convection along the ITCZ, and the earlier GEM/Euro seem to show the monsoon trough at least splitting and producing a stronger one closer to 10-15N, if not actually weakening the northern one. Should this play out it could reduce the amount of desert air being spewed over the Atlantic.

[tarheelprogrammer]

The Atlantic basin in the GFS run at 18z is like a desert thanks to a desert.



Only seeing more dry air being pumped out of the Sahara and into the Atlantic. The tropical wave that the GFS was showing developing seems to bite the dust and more dust fills in behind it. Things can change and will but not a good sign if you are wanting to see TCs.

[ninel conde]

The Atlantic basin in the GFS run at 18z is like a desert thanks to a desert.



Only seeing more dry air being pumped out of the Sahara and into the Atlantic. The tropical wave that the GFS was showing developing seems to bite the dust and more dust fills in behind it. Things can change and will but not a good sign if you are wanting to see TCs.

the reason is easy to see. the western atlantic is dominated by low pressure and a neg NAO also exists so the azores high is pushed south and east and it is in perfect position to rip the tropics with dust. if somehow some were expecting the western basin to be favorable something needs to change pronto.

[TheStormExpert]

18z GFS Ensembles continues to advertise Tropical Cyclone development starting just west of the Cape Verde Islands @ around 228hrs. Then one of the areas moves into the SE Bahamas in the very long-range.

The Operational GFS does not have these areas so I wouldn't buy into it yet.

[tarheelprogrammer]

New GFS run showing wave a LOT stronger than previous run.



Down to 999:

[Hammy]

18z GFS Ensembles continues to advertise Tropical Cyclone development starting just west of the Cape Verde Islands @ around 228hrs. Then one of the areas moves into the SE Bahamas in the very long-range.

The Operational GFS does not have these areas so I wouldn't buy into it yet.

New GFS run showing wave a LOT stronger than previous run.

Down to 999

Makes me wonder a bit if what the ensemble runs show can be a precursor to operational runs.