Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[stormreader]

All speculation, but some of La's most significant strikes are in a narrow time frame Sept 29-Oct 4 from Carribean storms coming up through the Yucatan Channel. Just a thought.

[psyclone]

Plenty of Ivan-esque tracks being modeled at this point.

[ConvergenceZone]

Hopefully we will have an Invest thread to follow shortly. Hopefully by the end of tomorrow. Calling this a pouch too much longer just doesn't feel right with the increasing % for development AND model support

[stormlover2013]

Mexico to Florida peeps will be all on this website the next 2 weeks

[johngaltfla]

Mexico to Florida peeps will be all on this website the next 2 weeks

Us Florida Peeps are already all on this website.

[robbielyn]

We sure are. We are usually the first to show up.

[OURAGAN]

It' s P43L to follow now

[OURAGAN]

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/synops ... 092400.txt

[pgoss11]

I'm confused now. Are there two pouches that separate eventually with one intensifying??

[cycloneye]

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/synopses2016/synopsis-P43L-2016092400.txt

Interesting the change of number.I was not aware so thanks for bringing it.

[Hurricaneman]

Whats going on a pouch merger and its become a new pouch

[psyclone]

All the more reason to be thankful for the eventual invest designation...we can jettison this pouch keno baloney. I would be shocked if we don't have an invest before the weekend is over..

[TheAustinMan]

Whats going on a pouch merger and its become a new pouch

Recent modelling suggested that the packet of moisture associated with the former, unified Pouch 39L would split into two pockets of moisture, with one segment speeding ahead and one lagging behind. Dr. Montgomery, who heads the pouch tracking initiative, has decided to designate the western pouch as 43L, and the lagging one 39L. 43L is the one that has been producing much of the model activity.

[Hurricaneman]

looks a bit tighter this run at 66 than the 12z at 72hrs. Seems to hold off development until hr 84 so it seems to be pushing back the development timetable. Seems to be going towards the Euro solution in terms of development

[RL3AO]

looks a bit tighter this run at 66 than the 12z at 72hrs. Seems to hold off development until hr 84 so it seems to be pushing back the development timetable

Looks quite a bit weaker to me on the 850 vort map. We will see what the rest of the run shows.

[Alyono]

looks a bit tighter this run at 66 than the 12z at 72hrs. Seems to hold off development until hr 84 so it seems to be pushing back the development timetable

Looks quite a bit weaker to me on the 850 vort map. We will see what the rest of the run shows.

Looks more reasonable this run compared to previous ones

[pgoss11]

Looks much weaker passing through the Windwards.

[Hurricaneman]

This may be the reason they haven't issued an invest yet

[Hurricaneman]

Faster and slightly north at 114

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looks much weaker passing through the Windwards.

Probably much more realistic, to be honest.