2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[ConvergenceZone]

Peak season isn't far off, and I'm quite pleased, amazed actually, that the models are not showing much activity. That's perfectly fine with me. We have lowered our predicted numbers to 19/8/5 from 23/12/6 earlier in June. That's an additional 14 named storms, which is much more reasonable than another 18, given the state of the tropics. New Euro seasonal is predicting normal activity for Sept-Nov. La Nina just can't get going, and the deep tropics just don't seem as favorable as expected. Also, the Azores-Bermuda high is weaker than predicted, allowing for storms (like Ernesto) to recurve earlier. I'd be quite happy if Ernesto was the last storm of the season, though I doubt that will be the case. My internal office hurricane contest numbers are 17/8/4 (from May).

That's great news wxman. I had felt in my gut a couple of weeks ago that those predicted numbers were way to high as I mentioned on here. It looks like we might be able to squeeze out one more storm late August, but it's highly doubtful that we will suddenly get 18+ named storms starting in September. I'm really happy for you as I know it's quite stressful when you have to work all the time. I always pay most attention to your opinion since you study hurricanes for a living. Thanks for sharing the great news!

[Stratton23]

that is an extremely dangerous assumption to make that the bermuda high is staying weak, it wont, models agree on a + NAO becoming entrenched through september, there wont be much room for recurving , we arent close to peak season yet either

[jlauderdal]

Peak season isn't far off, and I'm quite pleased, amazed actually, that the models are not showing much activity. That's perfectly fine with me. We have lowered our predicted numbers to 19/8/5 from 23/12/6 earlier in June. That's an additional 14 named storms, which is much more reasonable than another 18, given the state of the tropics. New Euro seasonal is predicting normal activity for Sept-Nov. La Nina just can't get going, and the deep tropics just don't seem as favorable as expected. Also, the Azores-Bermuda high is weaker than predicted, allowing for storms (like Ernesto) to recurve earlier. I'd be quite happy if Ernesto was the last storm of the season, though I doubt that will be the case. My internal office hurricane contest numbers are 17/8/4 (from May).

That's great news wxman. I had felt in my gut a couple of weeks ago that those predicted numbers were way to high as I mentioned on here. It looks like we might be able to squeeze out one more storm late August, but it's highly doubtful that we will suddenly get 18+ named storms starting in September. I'm really happy for you as I know it's quite stressful when you have to work all the time. I always pay most attention to your opinion since you study hurricanes for a living. Thanks for sharing the great news!

I thought they were too high, it's tough to break records and all that so I went lower and would drop that even more, above average season and it only takes one but in terms of numbers looks like an underperformer in regards to those big seasonal forecasts.

[TomballEd]

Peak season isn't far off, and I'm quite pleased, amazed actually, that the models are not showing much activity. That's perfectly fine with me. We have lowered our predicted numbers to 19/8/5 from 23/12/6 earlier in June. That's an additional 14 named storms, which is much more reasonable than another 18, given the state of the tropics. New Euro seasonal is predicting normal activity for Sept-Nov. La Nina just can't get going, and the deep tropics just don't seem as favorable as expected. Also, the Azores-Bermuda high is weaker than predicted, allowing for storms (like Ernesto) to recurve earlier. I'd be quite happy if Ernesto was the last storm of the season, though I doubt that will be the case. My internal office hurricane contest numbers are 17/8/4 (from May).

That's great news wxman. I had felt in my gut a couple of weeks ago that those predicted numbers were way to high as I mentioned on here. It looks like we might be able to squeeze out one more storm late August, but it's highly doubtful that we will suddenly get 18+ named storms starting in September. I'm really happy for you as I know it's quite stressful when you have to work all the time. I always pay most attention to your opinion since you study hurricanes for a living. Thanks for sharing the great news!

I thought they were too high, it's tough to break records and all that so I went lower and would drop that even more, above average season and it only takes one but in terms of numbers looks like an underperformer in regards to those big seasonal forecasts.

I thought the numbers seemed high, but a 2005 season seemed possible, ENSO and near record/record NATL SSTs made me think we could go well into the second alphabet. So I wasn't doubting. I still think we will finish above average NS, and above or well above average ACE.

[ConvergenceZone]

Peak season isn't far off, and I'm quite pleased, amazed actually, that the models are not showing much activity. That's perfectly fine with me. We have lowered our predicted numbers to 19/8/5 from 23/12/6 earlier in June. That's an additional 14 named storms, which is much more reasonable than another 18, given the state of the tropics. New Euro seasonal is predicting normal activity for Sept-Nov. La Nina just can't get going, and the deep tropics just don't seem as favorable as expected. Also, the Azores-Bermuda high is weaker than predicted, allowing for storms (like Ernesto) to recurve earlier. I'd be quite happy if Ernesto was the last storm of the season, though I doubt that will be the case. My internal office hurricane contest numbers are 17/8/4 (from May).

That's great news wxman. I had felt in my gut a couple of weeks ago that those predicted numbers were way to high as I mentioned on here. It looks like we might be able to squeeze out one more storm late August, but it's highly doubtful that we will suddenly get 18+ named storms starting in September. I'm really happy for you as I know it's quite stressful when you have to work all the time. I always pay most attention to your opinion since you study hurricanes for a living. Thanks for sharing the great news!

I thought they were too high, it's tough to break records and all that so I went lower and would drop that even more, above average season and it only takes one but in terms of numbers looks like an underperformer in regards to those big seasonal forecasts.

Yea, I remember sitting at my computer when I heard their last prediction, my exact words were "oh come on now, get real" lol. There's such a big difference between being above average and them calling for a super insane hyper tropics on steroids active like they were calling for. Honestly I've never really liked the predictions anyway, because past results shows that the the accuracy record is very low, both on the high end and the low end. Honestly I think it would be better if they just said, "above average" or "below average" etc, instead of throwing out storm numbers.

[wxman57]

that is an extremely dangerous assumption to make that the bermuda high is staying weak, it wont, models agree on a + NAO becoming entrenched through september, there wont be much room for recurving , we arent close to peak season yet either

An extremely dangerous assumption? I simply observed that the Bermuda high is weaker and farther east at present. I'm not saying every storm will curve out to sea. Nothing is being assumed. Everyone has to pay close attention to the tropics through at least October (November in Caribbean).

[SFLcane]

12z eps coming in with late developers and not much of a recurve signal. We shall see!

[otowntiger]

Wxman57’s post confirms for me what I’m thinking and that is a hyper active season is very likely not happening as it looks now. I think a ‘regular above average season is more likely. It just goes to show that there are a whole lot of other factors to consider besides SST’s and La Niña vs El Niño, etc. when it comes to season predictions, and dare I say there are probably unknown factors that play a part too.

[skyline385]

And there's the switch flip coming, just like every year

https://i.imgur.com/gQjTGAq.png

Similar support today

https://i.imgur.com/nLeXsgF.png

Support continues

https://i.imgur.com/Ts5sysL.png

Mores support as switch flip nears

[SFLcane]

Wxman57’s post confirms for me what I’m thinking and that is a hyper active season is very likely not happening as it looks now. I think a ‘regular above average season is more likely. It just goes to show that there are a whole lot of other factors to consider besides SST’s and La Niña vs El Niño, etc. when it comes to season predictions, and dare I say there are probably unknown factors that play a part too.

Why isnt going to happen? Its 8/16! As Dr. Kimwood mentioned 10 TC'S developed in sept in 2020. We are just in the 1st inning of this season. " Patience is a vertue this time of the year"

[otowntiger]

that is an extremely dangerous assumption to make that the bermuda high is staying weak, it wont, models agree on a + NAO becoming entrenched through september, there wont be much room for recurving , we arent close to peak season yet either

An extremely dangerous assumption? I simply observed that the Bermuda high is weaker and farther east at present. I'm not saying every storm will curve out to sea. Nothing is being assumed. Everyone has to pay close attention to the tropics through at least October (November in Caribbean).

Exactly. I was just wondering how is it ‘extremely dangerous’ for all of us weather geeks and pro Mets to make an observation from our desktop computers about the current condition of the Bermuda high and its potential effects on any distant potential storm?

[skyline385]

That's great news wxman. I had felt in my gut a couple of weeks ago that those predicted numbers were way to high as I mentioned on here. It looks like we might be able to squeeze out one more storm late August, but it's highly doubtful that we will suddenly get 18+ named storms starting in September. I'm really happy for you as I know it's quite stressful when you have to work all the time. I always pay most attention to your opinion since you study hurricanes for a living. Thanks for sharing the great news!

I thought they were too high, it's tough to break records and all that so I went lower and would drop that even more, above average season and it only takes one but in terms of numbers looks like an underperformer in regards to those big seasonal forecasts.

Yea, I remember sitting at my computer when I heard their last prediction, my exact words were "oh come on now, get real" lol. There's such a big difference between being above average and them calling for a super insane hyper tropics on steroids active like they were calling for. Honestly I've never really liked the predictions anyway, because past results shows that the the accuracy record is very low, both on the high end and the low end. Honestly I think it would be better if they just said, "above average" or "below average" etc, instead of throwing out storm numbers.

Just gonna say, this has same vibes as that one user in NOLA calling season cancel a week before Katrina in 2005. wxman has lowered his NS numbers which is fair but ACE-wise, a hyperactive season is still very much on the table. We are still 3rd ACE-wise going into switch flip with a record +AMO and the transition to La Nina continuing. We also just literally had a record breaking C5 in June so I would hold off on claiming that forecasts were not accurate mid-August before the NATL climatological peak even begins.

[TomballEd]

12z eps coming in with late developers and not much of a recurve signal. We shall see!

https://i.postimg.cc/zXHVJFsv/nnnn.png

I see 5-7 that don't look certain to recurve before the Caribbean or North America. Anything N of 20N before 60W isn't likely to affect CONUS. Two fairly strong disturbances close to each other catches the eye, the two perturbed runs are probably picking up on the same thing. Looks like at least 2 members in the Caribbean may be developing the same or a different disturbance. This is more meaningful, IMHO, than 20% of the runs at 15 days with forecast TCs randomly spread through out the basin.

Members with systems near each other at the same time and the same place, GEFS also seem to be interesting beyond 2 weeks in the Caribbean as well. The strength of the Bermuda high may not be as critical if a system doesn't develop before the W. Caribbean

[WeatherBoy2000]

That's great news wxman. I had felt in my gut a couple of weeks ago that those predicted numbers were way to high as I mentioned on here. It looks like we might be able to squeeze out one more storm late August, but it's highly doubtful that we will suddenly get 18+ named storms starting in September. I'm really happy for you as I know it's quite stressful when you have to work all the time. I always pay most attention to your opinion since you study hurricanes for a living. Thanks for sharing the great news!

I thought they were too high, it's tough to break records and all that so I went lower and would drop that even more, above average season and it only takes one but in terms of numbers looks like an underperformer in regards to those big seasonal forecasts.

I thought the numbers seemed high, but a 2005 season seemed possible, ENSO and near record/record NATL SSTs made me think we could go well into the second alphabet. So I wasn't doubting. I still think we will finish above average NS, and above or well above average ACE.

I think it's just impossible to predict a season like 2005, it was the 21st century equivalent to 1933. There are set ups that make a season like that more likely, and this year was definitely a candidate, but I doubt we're going to get a season quite like that now. Weather patterns came together just right (or wrong) in 2005 to produce that season. It's the subtle things that can't be predicted months in advance that make a season truly exceptional versus just active.

[SFLcane]

12z eps coming in with late developers and not much of a recurve signal. We shall see!

https://i.postimg.cc/zXHVJFsv/nnnn.png

I see 5-7 that don't look certain to recurve before the Caribbean or North America. Anything N of 20N before 60W isn't likely to affect CONUS. Two fairly strong disturbances close to each other catches the eye, the two perturbed runs are probably picking up on the same thing. Looks like at least 2 members in the Caribbean may be developing the same or a different disturbance. This is more meaningful, IMHO, than 20% of the runs at 15 days with forecast TCs randomly spread through out the basin.

Members with systems near each other at the same time and the same place, GEFS also seem to be interesting beyond 2 weeks in the Caribbean as well. The strength of the Bermuda high may not be as critical if a system doesn't develop before the W. Caribbean

Timing and steering always go hand and hand.

[Weathertracker96]

I thought they were too high, it's tough to break records and all that so I went lower and would drop that even more, above average season and it only takes one but in terms of numbers looks like an underperformer in regards to those big seasonal forecasts.

Yea, I remember sitting at my computer when I heard their last prediction, my exact words were "oh come on now, get real" lol. There's such a big difference between being above average and them calling for a super insane hyper tropics on steroids active like they were calling for. Honestly I've never really liked the predictions anyway, because past results shows that the the accuracy record is very low, both on the high end and the low end. Honestly I think it would be better if they just said, "above average" or "below average" etc, instead of throwing out storm numbers.

Just gonna say, this has same vibes as that one user in NOLA calling season cancel a week before Katrina in 2005. wxman has lowered his NS numbers which is fair but ACE-wise, a hyperactive season is still very much on the table. We are still 3rd ACE-wise going into switch flip with a record +AMO and the transition to La Nina continuing. We also just literally had a record breaking C5 in June so I would hold off on claiming that forecasts were not accurate mid-August.

https://i.imgur.com/IAWUjIN.png

Yes, I agree. I’m afraid all this “season is over” talk will lead to more complacency. It’s best to watch the tropics & looking at the long range models, things may get active soon. I hope everyone is using this time to make sure they’re prepared.

[WeatherBoy2000]

Wxman57’s post confirms for me what I’m thinking and that is a hyper active season is very likely not happening as it looks now. I think a ‘regular above average season is more likely. It just goes to show that there are a whole lot of other factors to consider besides SST’s and La Niña vs El Niño, etc. when it comes to season predictions, and dare I say there are probably unknown factors that play a part too.

Why isnt going to happen? Its 8/16! As Dr. Kimwood mentioned 10 TC'S developed in sept in 2020. We are just in the 1st inning of this season. " Patience is a vertue this time of the year"

The peak of this season would have to bust pretty horribly if it doesn't achieve at least the bare minimum for hyperactivity. We're on track for at least 50 ace by August 20th, we would only need an addition 105-110 ace to get there. The real question is if the 200+ ace forecasts verify.

[Teban54]

that is an extremely dangerous assumption to make that the bermuda high is staying weak, it wont, models agree on a + NAO becoming entrenched through september, there wont be much room for recurving , we arent close to peak season yet either

An extremely dangerous assumption? I simply observed that the Bermuda high is weaker and farther east at present. I'm not saying every storm will curve out to sea. Nothing is being assumed. Everyone has to pay close attention to the tropics through at least October (November in Caribbean).

Exactly. I was just wondering how is it ‘extremely dangerous’ for all of us weather geeks and pro Mets to make an observation from our desktop computers about the current condition of the Bermuda high and its potential effects on any distant potential storm?

Because 9 out if 10 times, the implied idea conveyed by such comment is "everything will recurve OTS, nothing will hit us, go home".

I don't think that's what wxman57 was trying to convey when he said that, nor that he personally believes it; but on a forum like this with a large number of users and varying degrees of experience and expertise in tracking the hurricane season, such comments can and do send at least some users down that path.

[ConvergenceZone]

Yea, I remember sitting at my computer when I heard their last prediction, my exact words were "oh come on now, get real" lol. There's such a big difference between being above average and them calling for a super insane hyper tropics on steroids active like they were calling for. Honestly I've never really liked the predictions anyway, because past results shows that the the accuracy record is very low, both on the high end and the low end. Honestly I think it would be better if they just said, "above average" or "below average" etc, instead of throwing out storm numbers.

Just gonna say, this has same vibes as that one user in NOLA calling season cancel a week before Katrina in 2005. wxman has lowered his NS numbers which is fair but ACE-wise, a hyperactive season is still very much on the table. We are still 3rd ACE-wise going into switch flip with a record +AMO and the transition to La Nina continuing. We also just literally had a record breaking C5 in June so I would hold off on claiming that forecasts were not accurate mid-August.

https://i.imgur.com/IAWUjIN.png

Yes, I agree. I’m afraid all this “season is over” talk with lead to more complacency. It’s best to watch the tropics & looking at the long range models, things may get active soon. I hope everyone is using this time to make sure they’re prepared.

Sorry but I haven't read any posts from anyone who said "the season was over". Who said that?

[Hammy]

Just gonna say, this has same vibes as that one user in NOLA calling season cancel a week before Katrina in 2005. wxman has lowered his NS numbers which is fair but ACE-wise, a hyperactive season is still very much on the table. We are still 3rd ACE-wise going into switch flip with a record +AMO and the transition to La Nina continuing. We also just literally had a record breaking C5 in June so I would hold off on claiming that forecasts were not accurate mid-August.

https://i.imgur.com/IAWUjIN.png

Yes, I agree. I’m afraid all this “season is over” talk with lead to more complacency. It’s best to watch the tropics & looking at the long range models, things may get active soon. I hope everyone is using this time to make sure they’re prepared.

Sorry but I haven't read any posts from anyone who said "the season was over". Who said that?

"We're not going to have 25+ storms" seems like it's taken as "it's over" by a lot of users here, creating a swath of unhelpful grievance discourse in this thread, which is supposed to be about the model runs

Which on topic, Euro has three quasi-storms at ten days, and given this model's history usually means actual storms will start showing up soon.