2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[TheStormExpert]

Hurricane in the Tropical Atlantic on the 00z GFS at around 222hrs., down to 986mb.

[blp]

Not surprised considering how bullish the ensembles were on the 18z. This the system the CFS was seeing for quite sometime it appears. Very interesting.

Just for fantasy, take a look at ensemble 17

http://tc.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFSens17/2016071918/slp.anim

New GFS run showing wave a LOT stronger than previous run.

[]http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016072000/gfs_mslp_pcpn_atl_35.png[/img]

Down to 999:
[]http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016072000/gfs_mslp_wind_atl_38.png[/img]

[tarheelprogrammer]

Not surprised considering how bullish the ensembles were on the 18z. This the system the CFS was seeing for quite sometime it appears. Very interesting.

Just for fantasy, take a look at ensemble 17

http://tc.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFSens17/2016071918/slp.anim

New GFS run showing wave a LOT stronger than previous run.

[]http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016072000/gfs_mslp_pcpn_atl_35.png[/img]

Down to 999:
[]http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016072000/gfs_mslp_wind_atl_38.png[/img]

Hopefully that does not happen. Dry air for the win!

[tarheelprogrammer]

It looks like a fish storm and I am glad scary to think of that thing getting above PR and heading for the southeast.

[TheStormExpert]

Yeah that particular 18z GFS Ensemble would keep us Floridans on guard for sure if it panned out, fortunately there appears to be a weakness opening up on that ensemble run.

[TheStormExpert]

It looks like a fish storm and I am glad scary to think of that thing getting above PR and heading for the southeast.

Nothing is a definite fish this far out, though that is the likely scenario if it ramps up quickly like on the 00z GFS. It's also not even definite that a storm will even form.

[tarheelprogrammer]

It looks like a fish storm and I am glad scary to think of that thing getting above PR and heading for the southeast.

Nothing is a definite fish this far out, though that is the likely scenario if it ramps up quickly like on the 00z GFS. It's also not even definite that a storm will even form.

Sure I am going by this run and of course next run the GFS probably will drop it LOL just saying nobody wants that thing near them at all. It ramps up pretty good without even touching the warmest waters in the Atlantic.

[stormwise]

https://i.imgsafe.org/f080ea2ea5.png

https://i.imgsafe.org/f081dba814.png

[Dylan]

There appears to be strong support from the 0z GEFS as well.

[RL3AO]

I'm a little surprised at how much the GFS intensifies that system in the eastern Atlantic. Anyway, here's my not an expert view on the GFS. We get another SAL outbreak in the next few days (although much weaker than current one) with maybe a large disorganized wave that possibly helps improve the environment off Africa. Wave moves off in about 8 days and immediately develops in GFS. I'm wondering if instead of developing, it may move out into the Atlantic where it could find a somewhat more favorable environment than what we currently see.

[tarheelprogrammer]

While other models do not develop this TW into a storm I am going by the GFS being right (Gulp). Taking a look at the ensembles something of worry down the road if something were to develop is the shift further west and closer to land from 0z to 06z.

0z:


06z:

[RL3AO]

I'm supposed to fly back to Miami on August 5th to get my car to drive back to MN. I don't need anything within 2000 miles of Florida.

[lordkev]

It looks like a fish storm and I am glad scary to think of that thing getting above PR and heading for the southeast.

A storm that is a direct hit on the Leewards is not a fish storm! That would be a strong hurricane bearing down directly at us here.

[tarheelprogrammer]

It looks like a fish storm and I am glad scary to think of that thing getting above PR and heading for the southeast.

A storm that is a direct hit on the Leewards is not a fish storm! That would be a strong hurricane bearing down directly at us here.

It doesn't hit ya'll in either run. Another thing of note is that the GFS in the super long range has a wave try to develop behind this storm and something in the Gulf of Mexico trying to spin up it looks like on the 06z run.

[RL3AO]

Does seem to support why the GFS is favoring development in eastern Atlantic.

[blp]

The Euro & CMC also have this system but as a much weaker 1012 low. So it is not as if this looks to be a GFS phantom. I just think it is overdoing the intensity quite a bit. I think what is reasonable is to have a really strong wave exiting the coast and developing into a a Depression that will be steered by the lower levels and thus move further west across the Atlantic and possible find better conditions as it reaches the islands.

[weathaguyry]

Lets see how much 12z run weakens this...

[hurricanehunter69]

12Z MU showing active EPAC again to start early August:

I think its safe to say the switch isnt going to flip in early august and if the east pac does get hyperactive again all of aug is likely to be dead expecially considering how unfavorable it is now.. I definitely see no reason to assume the western basin will be favorable. at most, 2/1/0 in august for the atlantic.

2/1/0 in August.....? I would agree if it were an El Nino year. I'll bet that even the rest of this month could beat that line.

[Stormcenter]

Sorry but that far out it really is hard to take anything the models are seeing seriously. I'll just wait until at least the first week of August and see what they spitting out then.

[RL3AO]

Sorry but that far out it really is hard to take anything the models are seeing seriously. I'll just wait until at least the first week of August and see what they spitting out then.

It has a potential storm in 7 days. That really isn't that far out.