Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[tolakram]

A strengthening storm in the graveyard? Does that really sound reasonable? Anything can happen, but I wonder if development will be delayed until the western Caribbean.

[pgoss11]

Looks like like it will pass to the north of the ABC islands.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

A strengthening storm in the graveyard? Does that really sound reasonable? Anything can happen, but I wonder if development will be delayed until the western Caribbean.

A storm can strengthen in the graveyard, so long as it establishes itself before it reaches the Islands as a self sustaining tropical cyclone with a closed LLC. See Felix and Dean in 2007.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Seems the GFS is trending weaker each run and is also further south each run.

[Alyono]

it's moving much faster this run. May be why its struggling a bit

[Alyono]

A strengthening storm in the graveyard? Does that really sound reasonable? Anything can happen, but I wonder if development will be delayed until the western Caribbean.

The graveyard is a John Hope Myth that should not be followed. The environment is favorable; thus, it should intensify

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Seems the GFS is trending weaker each run and is also further south each run.

Not surprising. Looks like a "meet me in the middle" scenario with the ECMWF reluctantly admitting that development will happen, and the GFS reluctantly admitting this probably won't be a hurricane by the time it reaches the Caribbean.

[Hurricaneman]

Definitely trending towards the Euro with the MLC over the east coast and possibly a more northerly steering current in the Western Caribbean

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[tarheelprogrammer]

Seems the GFS is trending weaker each run and is also further south each run.

Not surprising. Looks like a "meet me in the middle" scenario with the ECMWF reluctantly admitting that development will happen, and the GFS reluctantly admitting this probably won't be a hurricane by the time it reaches the Caribbean.

Yeah but a few more trends south and this is in South America. Plenty of time to watch.

[Alyono]

This MU is about exactly what I forecast a few hours ago, though I suspect it is going to rapidly intensify

[tarheelprogrammer]

This MU is about exactly what I forecast a few hours ago, though I suspect it is going to rapidly intensify

100 percent agree conditions look good and the water is very warm. Looks to be meeting in the middle with the ECMWF.

[Blown Away]

150 Hours, strengthening and moving WNW... Probably Cat 2

[tolakram]

Definitely trending towards the Euro with the MLC over the east coast and possibly a more northerly steering current in the Western Caribbean

The euro just now has a storm down there, I don't think it's even trending with itself yet.

My point about the graveyard is that if it does not develop prior to the windwards I really don't think it will until the western Caribbean. In order to develop way down there, in the ritzy section where the tombstones are really big , one would have to believe that the upper air environment is near perfect and dry air coming off the coast of SA won't be an issue. This amateur finds that darn hard to believe. If it does develop prior to the windwards then, as pointed out above, it doesn't really matter.

[Alyono]

Definitely trending towards the Euro with the MLC over the east coast and possibly a more northerly steering current in the Western Caribbean

The euro just now has a storm down there, I don't think it's even trending with itself yet.

My point about the graveyard is that if it does not develop prior to the windwards I really don't think it will until the western Caribbean. In order to develop way down there, in the ritzy section where the tombstones are really big , one would have to believe that the upper air environment is near perfect and dry air coming off the coast of SA won't be an issue. This amateur finds that darn hard to believe. If it does develop prior to the windwards then, as pointed out above, it doesn't really matter.

Since 2001, we have had something like 10 storms that have formed in the eastern Caribbean. Even 2013 had one. The eastern Caribbean is usually only unfavorable during major SAL outbreaks as the SAL surge at 700mb gets enhanced there

[USTropics]

The models had been forecasting two vorticities leaving the coast days ago (the CMC even developed both for a while), the first vorticity is now P43L.

One thing we'll have to monitor is the possibility of two vorticities emerging off the coast (one to the far south, and one around 15N in association with the monsoonal trough).

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS faster and heading NW at 186 hours. Heading for weakness over Florida and Gulf

[USTropics]

Yea this is almost a day faster, brushes up against Jamaica at 192 hours (a week from tomorrow):

[Blown Away]

192 Hours... Direct hit on Jamaica... Cat 3/4

[gatorcane]

[Hurricaneman]

that screams central Cuba to Florida

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.