ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Kingarabian]

One things for sure, with la nina still managing to drop (as it went down to -0.8 this week), there really is barely any time at all for ENSO to be significantly detrimental to the upcoming hurricane season. I hope things change fast because I don't want an active season after last year. Question: I know Nino 1+2 is subject to more dramatic and quick fluctuations in temperature, but when it's sharply negative like it is currently (per tropicaltidbits) would that "slow" el Nino in any way? Thanks.

2009 El Nino was a late bloomer where it didn't take off until late May-June.

[NotSparta]

One things for sure, with la nina still managing to drop (as it went down to -0.8 this week), there really is barely any time at all for ENSO to be significantly detrimental to the upcoming hurricane season. I hope things change fast because I don't want an active season after last year. Question: I know Nino 1+2 is subject to more dramatic and quick fluctuations in temperature, but when it's sharply negative like it is currently (per tropicaltidbits) would that "slow" el Nino in any way? Thanks.

Niño 1+2 probably flucuates the most out of the regions, due to its small size. At the end of February it was at +1°C compared to average

[Ntxw]

The WWB is not without fanfare. Of course, Jelawat. First of its kind in the NHEM. Perhaps a Typhoon down the road



The first typhoon in 2017 was in late July.

[hamburgerman7070]

Hey guys. What do we need to see happen for some type of niño this winter? And how likely is that to occur? I know its early, but niñas aren't too nice to us, especially during winter.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-r ... march-2018

[Ntxw]

Jelawat has pushed Cat 4 and is a Super Typhoon trying for Cat 5. Is this a precursor as some other pre El Nino years have been with rising Pacific motion? 2015 had Higos and Maysak in Feb/March. 1997 had Isa in April. In May 2009 Kujira was around when the Nino started going off. Of course there are years that don't. No doubt the STY is enveloped in a potent WWB in the west.

[Ntxw]

As you can also see the trades have significantly weakened below normal in the eastern Nino regions (Nino 3 and 1+2 being effected). SSTs anoms should rapidly reverse in the coming days.



You can see the change occuring near 90W

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/979652403153731584




We all know what 2015 was. Looking at CPC's ONI data, 2002 was a moderate el nino year, 1988 a strong la nina year, and 1972 a strong el nino year. Interesting!

[Ntxw]

It doesn't hurt that the MJO is amplifying most when in the Pacific or near Pacific phases. Could be a sign rising motion is favored there. This is a common theme in all of those typhoons early in the year. 1988 diverged in that March went into the very strong Nina phases (Maritime continent) coming off an El Nino. That's not happening this go round.

So far in 2018

[euro6208]

Jelawat has pushed Cat 4 and is a Super Typhoon trying for Cat 5. Is this a precursor as some other pre El Nino years have been with rising Pacific motion? 2015 had Higos and Maysak in Feb/March. 1997 had Isa in April. In May 2009 Kujira was around when the Nino started going off. Of course there are years that don't. No doubt the STY is enveloped in a potent WWB in the west.

What about Cat 5 Mitag in March 2002?

[Ntxw]

Jelawat has pushed Cat 4 and is a Super Typhoon trying for Cat 5. Is this a precursor as some other pre El Nino years have been with rising Pacific motion? 2015 had Higos and Maysak in Feb/March. 1997 had Isa in April. In May 2009 Kujira was around when the Nino started going off. Of course there are years that don't. No doubt the STY is enveloped in a potent WWB in the west.

What about Cat 5 Mitag in March 2002?

That one too and 2004 Sudal. Needless to say there is some correlation to strong early Typhoons to bigger typhoon seasons and some linkage to +ENSO, just as there is some correlation to late starting typhoon seasons and -ENSO

[Kingarabian]

The -1C contour that was dominating since winter and early spring has disappeared this week.

[Kingarabian]

The sub-surface pool is still a strong and large one, that continues to expand, but looks to my have weakened in the past week. Hard to tell using just the buoys though:

[NotSparta]

The sub-surface pool is still a strong and large one, that continues to expand, but looks to my have weakened in the past week. Hard to tell using just the buoys though:

The La Niña has suddenly weakened, in the eastern areas, so the warm pool doesn't need to be as strong to flip things

[Shell Mound]

The build-up of equatorial heat content looks rather unstoppable to me. The trend indicates that the depth of the warmth is increasing to the west of the dateline, despite fluctuations farther to the east. The next significant, MJO-modulated WWB, combined with the effects of Typhoon Jelawat, will further enhance warmth to the west of the dateline, and also cause warm anomalies to propagate eastward. NINO 1 and 2 have already warmed rapidly in a matter of days, with negative anomalies going strongly positive in just two or three days. At this rate, given the factors mentioned, El Niño can be easily attained by the peak of hurricane season. At least that's my opinion.

[StruThiO]

In case anyone needs a visual of how quickly its heating up over there.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Cool tongue is all the way to 180. Water off Peru is v/cool got me wondering if we may
see that cold upwelled water cross the eq.

[StruThiO]

Still long range but maybe WWB ending soon.

Also SOI for March is 8.42.

[Kingarabian]

[img]https://i.imgur.com/7rMeB7r.png[img]

Still long range but maybe WWB ending soon.

Also SOI for March is 8.42.

Looks like weak trades for the first week of April over the Nino regions.

[Alyono]

seeing something else interesting. westerly wind anomalies near the islands of the eastern Caribbean. Could be a situation setting up of cooler than normal waters by Africa but warmer than normal near the islands. Something also to consider for Atlantic season, in addition to the ENSO