ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Cool tongue is all the way to 180. Water off Peru is v/cool got me wondering if we may
see that cold upwelled water cross the eq.

Plot shows a better view the cool water off Peru .

https://imgur.com/a/wXBcG

[Kingarabian]

As we all know, the SOI is very important when it comes to ENSO. March through June, it's important to look at how the atmosphere is influencing ENSO during these months. March will come in as a +8.50 on the SOI, which means that La Nina or cool neutral conditions continue to be prevalent. However, that still doesn't mean that we'll likely not have or have an El Nino by ASO even though the start of hurricane season is only 90 days away.

2002, 2006, 2009, 2014, and 2015 were El Nino years and had one thing in common: June was a negative SOI month during these years. Strong warm pools developed in the late winter and were allowed to reach the surface due to favorable wind conditions. 2006 and 2009, both didn't have a monthly negative SOI reading until May.

2012 was anomalous ENSO wise since it had a negative SOI setup from March to June, but ended up being a bust. There was also a warm pool in place but it never made it to the eastern Pacific due to a strong up welling Kelvin wave that was developing at the same time. Interesting...

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

APCC http://www.apcc21.net/ser/outlook.do?lang=en
Post just as a point to look back on after 3 months.

[Kingarabian]

Taken from the Texas Spring thread:

MJO going 8-1-2 in April looks like a cooler than normal signal for much of the US.

We could have a prolonged -SOI setup for April if the MJO stays in phases 8 and 1 for an extended period of time. We normally see higher pressures over the MC and lower pressures near Tahiti during these phases. 12Z Euro shows negative SOI values beginning on April 6/7.
A -SOI favors relaxed trades, and there is potential for a WWB to develop east of the dateline.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

That cool up -welled water appears on the plot to have crossed the eq now and is spreading west with trades and surface current. For how long and how far.?

https://imgur.com/DBppHRO

[Ntxw]

https://i.imgur.com/DBppHRO.png
That cool up -welled water appears on the plot to have crossed the eq now and is spreading west with trades and surface current. For how long and how far.?

https://imgur.com/DBppHRO

Waters here are very shallow and can change on a dime quickly. The trades in the nino 3 and 1+2 are significantly weak so not much help there. The cool strip is actually warming, and is very small. It will quickly be overwhelmed should the winds reverse. There is no depth to it to sustain it long term. If you go back just a bit more than a month ago it was positive on the weeklies, just to show how volatile it is

7 day SST anom change.



Also you have to look at raw SST's. It's getting warmer near 28C above and south of this region. As the seasons change this water needs to cool significantly along with the cooling of the southern hemisphere to keep up with the -anomalies

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

https://i.imgur.com/DBppHRO.png
That cool up -welled water appears on the plot to have crossed the eq now and is spreading west with trades and surface current. For how long and how far.?

https://imgur.com/DBppHRO

Waters here are very shallow and can change on a dime quickly. The trades in the nino 3 and 1+2 are significantly weak so not much help there. The cool strip is actually warming, and is very small. It will quickly be overwhelmed should the winds reverse. There is no depth to it to sustain it long term. If you go back just a bit more than a month ago it was positive on the weeklies, just to show how volatile it is

7 day SST anom change.



Also you have to look at raw SST's. It's getting warmer near 28C above and south of this region. As the seasons change this water needs to cool significantly along with the cooling of the southern hemisphere to keep up with the -anomalies

Was just pointing out there is cool water mixing in. Those CDAS anom plots can look spectacular at times.

I prefer the BOMS 7 day for anoms And Kyle Macritchie CFS plots for U 850hpa EQ wind projections..


https://imgur.com/gaiu4st


https://www.kylemacritchie.com/meteorology/showhovs.php



https://imgur.com/pgDWtjT
epac oisst

[WeatherEmperor]

For the 4/2/2018 update, Nino 3.4 warmed very slightly to -0.7C. Nino 1+2 is at -0.6C


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[cycloneye]

La Niña is still hanging on but Niño 3.4 went up to -0.7C in this 4/2/18 CPC update. It was at -0.8C on last week's update.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

[Shell Mound]

The new CFSv2 run has significantly changed its tune and now shows a well-established, moderate to strong El Niño by the peak of hurricane season. Yes, this is the three-month average for ASO. Apparently, the CFSv2 anticipates a significant shift toward El Niño sometime this month, owing to MJO-modulated WWB and -SOI. In fact, the model shows El Niño in place as early as JJA. I think this is quite plausible, given current trends, since the model shows the shift in the near term. At this point, I think one can safely say that while the evidence favours warm neutral ENSO by peak season, the trend is rapidly shifting toward El Niño. As I've said, I have respectfully disagreed with a neutral-ENSO forecast for some time and have personally favoured El Niño, and now the evidence seems to be trending that way. But I could be wrong.

In fact, if you look at the run, the CFSv2 eventually develops a 2015-/1997-grade El Niño by early winter.

[WAcyclone]

https://i.imgur.com/sXdQ8qy.png

The new CFSv2 run has significantly changed its tune and now shows a well-established, moderate to strong El Niño by the peak of hurricane season. Yes, this is the three-month average for ASO. Apparently, the CFSv2 anticipates a significant shift toward El Niño sometime this month, owing to MJO-modulated WWB and -SOI. In fact, the model shows El Niño in place as early as JJA. I think this is quite plausible, given current trends, since the model shows the shift in the near term. At this point, I think one can safely say that while the evidence favours warm neutral ENSO by peak season, the trend is rapidly shifting toward El Niño. As I've said, I have respectfully disagreed with a neutral-ENSO forecast for some time and have personally favoured El Niño, and now the evidence seems to be trending that way. But I could be wrong.

In fact, if you look at the run, the CFSv2 eventually develops a 2015-/1997-grade El Niño by early winter.

Note that the significant change in the CFSv2 forecast occurred between the 18z Mar 31 and 00z Apr 01 runs:



This strange model behaviour has already been discussed by Levi Cowan last year:

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/859423781546229762




 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/859423948274053121

[cycloneye]

The last two words from Levi Cowan "Be Careful" are important to look at when you see this sudden change by CFSv2.Let's see if the next runs show the change sustaining or not.

[Alyono]

lets wait for something other than dog doo doo to tell us we're heading into an el niño. Yes, CFS and EC is nothing but dog doo doo. Check the verification

How many years are we going to fall for BS model forecasts of an el niño?

[KAlexPR]

lets wait for something other than dog doo doo to tell us we're heading into an el niño. Yes, CFS and EC is nothing but dog doo doo. Check the verification

How many years are we going to fall for BS model forecasts of an el niño?

Totally agree. These ENSO forecasts are like clockwork, same story every year.

[CyclonicFury]

I'm not going to be sold on El Niño development until the official weekly anomaly value of Niño 3.4 reaches +0.5C or NOAA issues an El Niño watch.

[StruThiO]

I feel like its certainly possible if the atmosphere cooperates.



But I don't know that much about this; just learning.

[Kingarabian]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/980859163491340288

[Kingarabian]

GFS showing another week of relaxed trades or no trades at all in the central and eastern Pacific. Look for warming in these regions to continue this week.

[GeneratorPower]

lets wait for something other than dog doo doo to tell us we're heading into an el niño. Yes, CFS and EC is nothing but dog doo doo. Check the verification

How many years are we going to fall for BS model forecasts of an el niño?

I’m convinced certain folks want an El Niño and model skill is not of concern. I don’t understand it. To me ENSO is fascinating and unpredictable. I really think the model hugging of useless ENSO forecasts is embarrassing for our hobby.

[Kingarabian]

lets wait for something other than dog doo doo to tell us we're heading into an el niño. Yes, CFS and EC is nothing but dog doo doo. Check the verification

How many years are we going to fall for BS model forecasts of an el niño?

I’m convinced certain folks want an El Niño and model skill is not of concern. I don’t understand it. To me ENSO is fascinating and unpredictable. I really think the model hugging of useless ENSO forecasts is embarrassing for our hobby.

I don't see any model hugging here. We occasionally post the Euro and CFS seasonal forecasts for informational purposes only. Everything else posted here are present real time observations.The warm pool at the sub surface is clear as day, the WWB's and relaxed trades are legit. The two components of ENSO, the ocean and atmosphere, are showing trends towards a certain state. That's pretty much it.