ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[NotSparta]

I don't think you can really trust models in the middle of the SPB, they probably have problems caused by it, though that doesn't count out an El Niño

[StruThiO]

I’m convinced certain folks want an El Niño and model skill is not of concern. I don’t understand it. To me ENSO is fascinating and unpredictable. I really think the model hugging of useless ENSO forecasts is embarrassing for our hobby.

Of course we want an el nino. It only takes one aside, last year was bad and we dont want a repeat of that

[CyclonicFury]

The current warming of the ENSO regions should be enough to dissipate La Niña and return to neutral conditions - this is fairly typical to occur in the spring of weakening La Niña events.

With the current weak La Niña (probably nearing cool neutral by now) in April, it appears likely ENSO will be warm-neutral by late summer. I have a hard time thinking we will see anything more than a weak, late-developing El Niño. In order for an El Niño similar to 2009 to develop, we would probably need a robust WWB in late spring or early summer - the WWB in the Western Pacific appears to be ending soon based on that graphic, although trades will relax a bit in the eastern Pacific.

My guess would be warm neutral during hurricane season, primarily based on the current lingering La Niña base state. Until the BoM and CPC issue an El Niño watch - El Niño development is not imminent.

[cycloneye]

The next CPC complete update that is issued every month on the second Thursdays (April 12) should give us plenty of information and we will see if El Niño Watch is issued.The March update had El Niño chance for ASO at 33%.Also,on that date,CPC ENSO BLOG will have why they did what the update says.

[Kingarabian]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/980941299443519488

[Kingarabian]

This how 2009 and 2006 SST profiles looked like compared to the present SST's:

[NotSparta]

Once the JFM ONI comes out I'll find some analogs

[dexterlabio]

I don't see any model hugging here. We occasionally post the Euro and CFS seasonal forecasts for informational purposes only. Everything else posted here are present real time observations.The warm pool at the sub surface is clear as day, the WWB's and relaxed trades are legit. The two components of ENSO, the ocean and atmosphere, are showing trends towards a certain state. That's pretty much it.

I don't know but it seems like seasonal forecasts appear to be reliable when they are showing La Nina/No El Nino. I remember folks raising the possibility of 3rd swing of La Nina because CFSv2 said so, after all the flip-flopping in the April forecast update. Is it because the forecasts almost always show El Nino every year?

[NotSparta]

I don't see any model hugging here. We occasionally post the Euro and CFS seasonal forecasts for informational purposes only. Everything else posted here are present real time observations.The warm pool at the sub surface is clear as day, the WWB's and relaxed trades are legit. The two components of ENSO, the ocean and atmosphere, are showing trends towards a certain state. That's pretty much it.

I don't know but it seems like seasonal forecasts appear to be reliable when they are showing La Nina/No El Nino. I remember folks raising the possibility of 3rd swing of La Nina because CFSv2 said so, after all the flip-flopping in the April forecast update. Is it because the forecasts almost always show El Nino every year?

As I said above, I don't really trust models right now because the barrier is getting them down (it being April was a big problem for the CFSv2) and they'll flip flop a ton - especially now - making them unreliable, imo. As for the last point, I haven't been around enough to know that

[TheStormExpert]

So both the Euro and CFS are now calling for a full blown El Niño event during peak Atlantic season time, interesting. Still way too soon to know if this will be the final outcome or not as even at this time last year they were currently calling for the same tune for peak time last season.

[Yellow Evan]

So both the Euro and CFS are now calling for a full blown El Niño event during peak Atlantic season time, interesting. Still way too soon to know if this will be the final outcome or not as even at this time last year they were currently calling for the same tune for peak time last season.

They do this around the time of every equinox to some extent. Don't be played.

[NotSparta]

So both the Euro and CFS are now calling for a full blown El Niño event during peak Atlantic season time, interesting. Still way too soon to know if this will be the final outcome or not as even at this time last year they were currently calling for the same tune for peak time last season.

Those aren't good - Euro has a high bias and always seems to sell an El Niño, and the CFS is showing an El Niño because it's April, and pretty much that alone. The equinox and April mess the ENSO models up a lot

[CyclonicFury]

So both the Euro and CFS are now calling for a full blown El Niño event during peak Atlantic season time, interesting. Still way too soon to know if this will be the final outcome or not as even at this time last year they were currently calling for the same tune for peak time last season.

Those aren't good - Euro has a high bias and always seems to sell an El Niño, and the CFS is showing an El Niño because it's April, and pretty much that alone. The equinox and April mess the ENSO models up a lot

Interestingly the CFS shown on the official weekly ENSO update looks much more neutral than the Tropical Tidbits graph.

Then again, we can’t trust ENSO models at all this tome of year

[StruThiO]

JFM oni is -0.8C. Fifth trimonthly below -0.5C.

[cycloneye]

JFM oni is -0.8C. Fifth trimonthly below -0.5C.

It has been going up for the past two updates since it reached the coldest at -1.0C.

[NotSparta]

There are 3 analogs since 1950 with similar ENSO conditions that an El Nino form by ASO - 1976, 2006, and 2009, with the new JFM data

[NDG]

There are 3 analogs since 1950 with similar ENSO conditions that an El Nino form by ASO - 1976, 2006, and 2009, with the new JFM data

By this time in 2006 & 2009 Nino 3.4 was rapidly warming up into cool neutral zone and warm neutral by early May.

[CyclonicFury]

The current warm pool is impressive, but weaker than the warm pool of 2014 - which was nearly a failed El Nino. It took a secondary warm pool to initiate El Nino in 2014, and this was not until November. The current warm pool, as it spreads eastward and upward towards the surface, should be enough to dissipate the La Nina and turn ENSO neutral by May. We will need to watch if the warm pool weakens as it nears the surface. But it may take a second warm pool to start an El Nino, as well as a sustained period of westerly wind anomalies beginning in May/June. If the warm pool weakens as it reaches the surface and there isn't a second warm pool to follow it up, ENSO would probably stay neutral during this summer.

Out of curiosity, does anyone have any subsurface ENSO data at this time from 2006 and 2009, which were late-blooming El Ninos? I'm interested to see how they compare to this year.

[Kingarabian]

There are 3 analogs since 1950 with similar ENSO conditions that an El Nino form by ASO - 1976, 2006, and 2009, with the new JFM data

By this time in 2006 & 2009 Nino 3.4 was rapidly warming up into cool neutral zone and warm neutral by early May.

If you look at my previous post of the buoys, 2006, and 2009 are behind 2018 at this present time. We're approaching warm-neutral quicker than 2006 and 2009.

[NotSparta]

There are 3 analogs since 1950 with similar ENSO conditions that an El Nino form by ASO - 1976, 2006, and 2009, with the new JFM data

By this time in 2006 & 2009 Nino 3.4 was rapidly warming up into cool neutral zone and warm neutral by early May.

If you look at my previous post of the buoys, 2006, and 2009 are behind 2018 at this present time. We're approaching warm-neutral quicker than 2006 and 2009.

They both are slightly cooler during the March 27-April 1 period though, but I'm not sure if it's that significant.