ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[NDG]

There are 3 analogs since 1950 with similar ENSO conditions that an El Nino form by ASO - 1976, 2006, and 2009, with the new JFM data

By this time in 2006 & 2009 Nino 3.4 was rapidly warming up into cool neutral zone and warm neutral by early May.

If you look at my previous post of the buoys, 2006, and 2009 are behind 2018 at this present time. We're approaching warm-neutral quicker than 2006 and 2009.

I was going by the CPC's weekly Nino 3.4 SSTs official readings.

29MAR2006 27.0-0.5
05APR2006 27.3-0.3
12APR2006 27.7 0.0
17MAY2006 28.1 0.2

25MAR2009 26.8-0.6
01APR2009 27.1-0.4
08APR2009 27.4-0.2
06MAY2009 27.9 0.1

[Kingarabian]

By this time in 2006 & 2009 Nino 3.4 was rapidly warming up into cool neutral zone and warm neutral by early May.

If you look at my previous post of the buoys, 2006, and 2009 are behind 2018 at this present time. We're approaching warm-neutral quicker than 2006 and 2009.

I was going by the CPC's weekly Nino 3.4 SSTs official readings.

29MAR2006 27.0-0.5
05APR2006 27.3-0.3
12APR2006 27.7 0.0
17MAY2006 28.1 0.2

25MAR2009 26.8-0.6
01APR2009 27.1-0.4
08APR2009 27.4-0.2
06MAY2009 27.9 0.1

Ooh, interesting! Good catch.

[NDG]

[cycloneye]

@webberweather 1978, 1980, 1981, & 1988 certainly fit into the -ENSO/+PMM/+PDO mold & despite the warm MDR in the spring (much warmer than this yr) and -ENSO, the seasons were near or modestly above normal. It's also no coincidence that ~50% of the top 20 +PMM years in March are El Ninos.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/981930439320449024

[cycloneye]

@BenNollWeather
Some notable warming ongoing across the tropical and sub-tropical Pacific over the past 2 weeks, SSTAs have increased by 1-3ºC. La Niña is fading.



 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/981134735488335872

[cycloneye]

@PaulRoundy1
The forecast for activity this year should come with an implied large standard deviation. The TAO cross section below suggests pause, though active seasons have occurred when such a pattern was present in the spring.



 https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/982249057887305728

[Kingarabian]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/982292469013364736

[Kingarabian]

Interesting tweet by Eric Webb in regards to the PMM and its relation to El Nino:

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/982331086498947073

[Ntxw]

There has never been a thermocline slope mostly positive below the Pacific end to end that ended up La Nina, so we can cross that out for 2018. The positive in the eastern basin below the surface is warming, meaning a less inclined slope favoring warmth down the road. The cool waters are limited only near the surface. Any progressive WWBs now will knock on the door. It's either going to be warm-neutral or El Nino of some sort.

The change is more dramatic when you look at longer time scales



Below is the 5 day averages centered around the beginning of April compared to the beginning of Feb



The WWBs have done the work below the surface thus far to get it started. At the same time, the big El Nino Super Events, already had massive warming of 4-5C+ in the eastern Pacific by April. So we can also probably cross that out.

[Kingarabian]

Latest TAO Buoy update almost confirms a new down welling Kelvin wave in the WPAC. We can also see the current down welling Kelvin wave being reinforced in the EPAC thanks to weak trades and some westerly wind anomalies.

[Kingarabian]

There has never been a thermocline slope mostly positive below the Pacific end to end that ended up La Nina, so we can cross that out for 2018. The positive in the eastern basin below the surface is warming, meaning a less inclined slope favoring warmth down the road. The cool waters are limited only near the surface. Any progressive WWBs now will knock on the door. It's either going to be warm-neutral or El Nino of some sort.

The change is more dramatic when you look at longer time scales

[img]http://i68.tinypic.com/zx4mk0.png[img]

Below is the 5 day averages centered around the beginning of April compared to the beginning of Feb

[img]http://i65.tinypic.com/smr8dz.png[img]

The WWBs have done the work below the surface thus far to get it started. At the same time, the big El Nino Super Events, already had massive warming of 4-5C+ in the eastern Pacific by April. So we can also probably cross that out.

It's a clash of history since the current (historically positive) PMM and the very strong MJO pulse in February are historically situated/correlated to El Nino events. Yet historically an El Nino is not favored this soon after a La Nina.

It's kind of hard to comprehend whats going on. I think the CPC will have to up the odds of an El Nino or issue an El Nino watch on the 12th.

[NotSparta]

30 day ESPI is a bit below -1. ENSO region seems a bit dry but enhanced convection not far away. WPAC wet anomalies likely contributing

[NotSparta]

By this time in 2006 & 2009 Nino 3.4 was rapidly warming up into cool neutral zone and warm neutral by early May.

If you look at my previous post of the buoys, 2006, and 2009 are behind 2018 at this present time. We're approaching warm-neutral quicker than 2006 and 2009.

I was going by the CPC's weekly Nino 3.4 SSTs official readings.

29MAR2006 27.0-0.5
05APR2006 27.3-0.3
12APR2006 27.7 0.0
17MAY2006 28.1 0.2

25MAR2009 26.8-0.6
01APR2009 27.1-0.4
08APR2009 27.4-0.2
06MAY2009 27.9 0.1

28MAR2018 26.7-0.7

Latest CPC Niño 3.4 weekly slightly cooler than closest days of both those years. We'll see what the next weekly shows

[cycloneye]

The April 3 update of the subsurface waters shows the warm pool continuing to creep eastward (leading edge around 110W) and getting closer to surface but still there are some cooler waters to contend.

[Kingarabian]

Per CDAS, looks like Nino 3.4 is higher this week, at -0.430

Not too far off from the buoys:

[cycloneye]

Very interesting from Webb.

@webberweather
For 2 Ninos of the same caliber, ones that start in the CP & build east are more effective @ triggering non-linear, coupled feedbacks off the bat that are critical for growth. May be another reason why last yr's NINO attempt failed. Eq Pacific couldn't be more different this yr

@webberweather
Plus the warm pool is deeper in the west, increasing the potential longevity of the feedbacks in the CP. Aside from any AGW influence, I think this could be another good reason why most El Ninos since 1976 have been observed to start near the dateline and not South America

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/982757039146455040




 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/982758883939799040

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Bom and Jma enso updates are due in on Tuesday 10th.
http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/produc ... tlook.html

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/index.shtml?link=1


on another note.

https://imgur.com/TSZQTJ4

[cycloneye]

It will be an important week that culminates with the 12th CPC complete update. We will have plenty of information to digest.

[Kingarabian]

Taking a look at the 850 MB wind forecasts from the CFS and Euro:

CFSv2 has westerly wind anomalies in the eastern pacific continuing for most of April.



Euro/EPS keeps trades relaxed across the eastern Pacific, before another huge WWB forms just west or over the dateline:

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Boms poama / projections lime = easterly anoms; Red=westerly anoms.