ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)
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Re: ENSO Updates
The spring barrier is still a factor but the latest CFS shows mostly neutral ENSO for the peak season.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ENSO Updates
The SOI continues very positive with no big sign of crashing to negative anytime soon.
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/
Code: Select all
15 Apr 2018 1012.52 1008.40 12.47 11.50 5.56
14 Apr 2018 1009.79 1009.80 -17.31 11.25 5.55
13 Apr 2018 1013.39 1009.75 9.01 11.87 5.81
12 Apr 2018 1014.92 1009.90 18.96 11.65 5.77
11 Apr 2018 1013.49 1009.75 9.73 11.12 5.66
10 Apr 2018 1012.28 1010.90 -7.28 10.87 5.64
9 Apr 2018 1012.48 1010.50 -2.96 11.08 5.71
8 Apr 2018 1013.65 1009.95 9.44 11.53 5.68
7 Apr 2018 1013.60 1008.90 16.65 11.73 5.46
6 Apr 2018 1012.94 1007.75 20.19 11.63 5.11
5 Apr 2018 1011.96 1006.65 21.05 11.09 4.70
4 Apr 2018 1012.45 1007.65 17.38 10.47 4.39
3 Apr 2018 1012.83 1006.90 25.52 10.15 4.20
2 Apr 2018 1012.88 1006.15 31.29 9.72 4.01
1 Apr 2018 1012.64 1006.55 26.68 9.14 3.79
31 Mar 2018 1012.25 1007.45 3.30 8.48 3.57
30 Mar 2018 1013.00 1007.75 5.46 8.59 3.60
29 Mar 2018 1014.21 1006.20 18.67 8.64 3.52
28 Mar 2018 1011.41 1005.85 6.94 8.50 3.32
27 Mar 2018 1011.86 1005.75 9.57 9.00 3.22
26 Mar 2018 1013.50 1006.50 13.83 9.11 2.95
25 Mar 2018 1014.02 1007.00 13.93 9.42 2.67
24 Mar 2018 1014.29 1005.35 23.12 9.73 2.42
23 Mar 2018 1012.84 1003.70 24.08 9.45 2.06
22 Mar 2018 1010.01 1004.20 8.14 8.52 1.65
21 Mar 2018 1008.59 1005.75 -6.08 7.82 1.45
20 Mar 2018 1010.11 1007.75 -8.38 7.51 1.49
19 Mar 2018 1012.24 1009.65 -7.28 7.35 1.57
18 Mar 2018 1013.04 1006.25 12.83 7.15 1.58
17 Mar 2018 1012.51 1000.90 35.90 6.47 1.33
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Re: ENSO Updates
Another WWB is showing up west of the dateline in sync with upcoming MJO coming out of the IO
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: ENSO Updates
That wwb west of the date line is likely from a triggered warm kw passing asper plot
https://imgur.com/szmI6UR
As for mjo prefer to wait and see if verifies and if it can get pass the maritime with any strength.
https://imgur.com/GKkpZ10
https://imgur.com/szmI6UR
As for mjo prefer to wait and see if verifies and if it can get pass the maritime with any strength.
https://imgur.com/GKkpZ10
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Re: ENSO Updates
In 2018 the MJO has enhanced when crossing the western Pacific. This as been recurring in 30-60 day frames happening in January, February, March, and April so far. Its been crossing the IO at a decent clip, fading in the Maritime then restrengthen over the WPAC. No reason to believe it won't do the same this go round. The WWB is not appearing in a vacuum, it's related to the MJO movement.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: ENSO Updates
ENSO/SST Tracker (04/14/2018)
https://imgur.com/y1qpSr4
https://imgur.com/QZl9K6U
For anyone interested. ATL is the mover of real interest.
StormVista Email Service
https://imgur.com/y1qpSr4
https://imgur.com/QZl9K6U
For anyone interested. ATL is the mover of real interest.
StormVista Email Service
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Re: ENSO Updates
When looked at side by side you can see the evolution taking place below the surface at the beginning of the month to mid month now. To me, this is far more important than anything at the surface as it foretells going months ahead if you continue the WWBs.
TAO/Triton
Sea level rises are not only in the western tropical Pacific, but beginning to rise in the central areas
EQ heat content is enough to sustain El Nino if one can get going
TAO/Triton
Sea level rises are not only in the western tropical Pacific, but beginning to rise in the central areas
EQ heat content is enough to sustain El Nino if one can get going
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: ENSO Updates
Boms sst data and heights + the enso tracker post don't look that impressive atm. Not cherry
picking here just saying.
https://imgur.com/RfPLajL
POAMA Ocean Monitoring Products
https://imgur.com/4wkX3NI
Ncep oisst 3day sst anoms.
https://imgur.com/kjal2NQ
picking here just saying.
https://imgur.com/RfPLajL
POAMA Ocean Monitoring Products
https://imgur.com/4wkX3NI
Ncep oisst 3day sst anoms.
https://imgur.com/kjal2NQ
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates
Ntxw wrote:Another WWB is showing up west of the dateline in sync with upcoming MJO coming out of the IO
Saw it on the GFS this morning and it's interesting that it's almost a carbon copy of the late March event.
Will be important to see if it stops the trade burst developing in the eastern Pacific.
If this WWB materializes, that means since the start of the year, we've seen four westerly wind bursts in as many months. And they've all been MJO driven. Gives us a hint on where the atmosphere may be leaning to.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates
Ntxw wrote:When looked at side by side you can see the evolution taking place below the surface at the beginning of the month to mid month now. To me, this is far more important than anything at the surface as it foretells going months ahead if you continue the WWBs.
It's important to remember that ENSO is a long term episode. While a lot are focusing on the cool surface SST's, the warm and large sub surface pool cannot be ignored, and in the long term things can quickly change.
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Re: ENSO Updates
I agree with a flip long term. Given how long it takes to all come together just don't see it
in the next 6 months being anything other than neutral.
in the next 6 months being anything other than neutral.
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- NotSparta
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Re: ENSO Updates
Kingarabian wrote:Ntxw wrote:Another WWB is showing up west of the dateline in sync with upcoming MJO coming out of the IO
Saw it on the GFS this morning and it's interesting that it's almost a carbon copy of the late March event.
Will be important to see if it stops the trade burst developing in the eastern Pacific.
If this WWB materializes, that means since the start of the year, we've seen four westerly wind bursts in as many months. And they've all been MJO driven. Gives us a hint on where the atmosphere may be leaning to.
Looks even further west
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This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.
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Re: ENSO Updates
NotSparta wrote:Kingarabian wrote:Ntxw wrote:Another WWB is showing up west of the dateline in sync with upcoming MJO coming out of the IO
Saw it on the GFS this morning and it's interesting that it's almost a carbon copy of the late March event.
https://i.imgur.com/zSDsuN5.gif
Will be important to see if it stops the trade burst developing in the eastern Pacific.
If this WWB materializes, that means since the start of the year, we've seen four westerly wind bursts in as many months. And they've all been MJO driven. Gives us a hint on where the atmosphere may be leaning to.
Looks even further west
That’s what I was also going to say, that is further west (over the maritime continent to be exact) and weaker than previous WWBs. Also interesting that it ramps up the trades over the central and eastern Pacific (El Niño killer).
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- NotSparta
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Re: ENSO Updates
NDG wrote:NotSparta wrote:Kingarabian wrote:
Saw it on the GFS this morning and it's interesting that it's almost a carbon copy of the late March event.
https://i.imgur.com/zSDsuN5.gif
Will be important to see if it stops the trade burst developing in the eastern Pacific.
If this WWB materializes, that means since the start of the year, we've seen four westerly wind bursts in as many months. And they've all been MJO driven. Gives us a hint on where the atmosphere may be leaning to.
Looks even further west
That’s what I was also going to say, that is further west (over the maritime continent to be exact) and weaker than previous WWBs. Also interesting that it ramps up the trades over the central and eastern Pacific (El Niño killer).
With that wind pattern if we can get an El Niño it would be Modoki (sorry to bring out that word)
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Re: ENSO Updates
-0.4C will be at the update
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- CyclonicFury
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Re: ENSO Updates
Looks like La Niña is unofficially over and is unlikely to return this fall/winter. So long, La Niña!
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- cycloneye
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Re: ENSO Updates
@Met_khinz
Nina continues to hold on w/ consistent easterlies east of 180 into early May...research shows lingering ENSO neutral gives merit to warmer risks May into the summer. Need to watch this evolution like a hawk.
https://twitter.com/Met_khinz/status/985857177117188096
Nina continues to hold on w/ consistent easterlies east of 180 into early May...research shows lingering ENSO neutral gives merit to warmer risks May into the summer. Need to watch this evolution like a hawk.
https://twitter.com/Met_khinz/status/985857177117188096
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 4/16/18: Niño 3.4 up to -0.4C
CPC weekly update of 4/16/18 is up to -0.4C at Niño 3.4 and that is up from the -0.5C that was in last week's update. IMO,La Niña Advisory will be gone when the CPC Diagnostic update of May 10th is released.
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 4/16/18: Niño 3.4 up to -0.4C
@PaulRoundy1
La Niña appears to be ending.
https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/985892144715128833
@MJVentrice
Showing up in the atmospheric coupling component too...
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/985897307030859776
La Niña appears to be ending.
https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/985892144715128833
@MJVentrice
Showing up in the atmospheric coupling component too...
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/985897307030859776
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 4/16/18: Niño 3.4 up to -0.4C
We're behind 2006 (0.0) and 2009 (-0.2) at this time of year.
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