NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC (Is invest 96L)

[caneman]

IF the Euro and GFS are agreeing I'll take that over CMC, NOGAPS, UKMET. I don't think any of them know for sure though so for now stick so I'll stick with the ones with best verification.

[ROCK]

IMO GFS continues to be way to fast in moving this disturbance to the east....By Monday it already crossed Florida according to the GFS..

agree...its having issues...Dean said convective feedback and I would agree with that....

[cycloneye]

IMO GFS continues to be way to fast in moving this disturbance to the east....By Monday it already crossed Florida according to the GFS..

You think the MJO has to do with the feedback of GFS?

[tolakram]

At this point I would think invest in the next hour or so. Circulation really getting defined.

[ROCK]

Mark that is where I have it also....nice map

[Aric Dunn]

Just need to move father away from land. right now its still interacting with the other swirl and eventually it should swing ENE and likely build under or near the convection.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

2 Possibilities:
With lowering shear, high TCHP and loop current path, IMO we will have a hurricane soon:

1. Texas (Slow or Rapid development and trough misses it)
2. Florida (Rapid development and trough catches it)



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[cycloneye]

Look at those clouds in Playa del Carmen near Cancun at this Web Cam.

[caneman]

I think alot of it depends on how quickly it comes together.

[ROCK]

Dang, Luis I was looking for sun bathers....

[crimi481]

Check out WV Loop
Whatever this "thing" is - it seems to be moving/expanding to N.N East
New center may form - somewhere in middle of it?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

[Dean4Storms]

I have two varying thought on this....

#1 If the low near the north Yucatan peninsula deepens, organizes today and becomes the dominant Low then I would expect fairly rapid intensification being under virtually no shear and very warm SST's. That said, I believe a system there and deepening fairly rapidly would feel the trough and move toward the Tampa area by Mon/Tues. as a hurricane.

#2 If the Low forms further north under the shear and dry air to its north in the central Gulf then it struggles to deepen, misses the trough and eventually gets influenced by the Plains ridging and turns back westward eventually coming under more favorable conditions and threatening TX.

I think the eventual situation depends wholly on where this low develops which in turn will affect it's intensity and eventual path. The #1 solution would unfold fairly quickly and we would know by Saturday. The #2 solution and this will be well into next week.


This is just my opinion and you should rely on all your information from official sources which I am not!

[Rgv20]

IMO GFS continues to be way to fast in moving this disturbance to the east....By Monday it already crossed Florida according to the GFS..

You think the MJO has to do with the feedback of GFS?

http://img819.imageshack.us/img819/4089 ... sefull.gif

Most definitely, that MJO pulse the GFS is forecasting is unrealistic and IMO is the main culprit for the GFS having convective feedback problems. Even HPC ignored the 0zGFS and would probably ignore this current 12z run.

[tolakram]

Check out WV Loop
Whatever this "thing" is - it seems to be moving/expanding to N.N East
New center may form - somewhere in middle of it?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

You're seeing the upper level low, see the spin near the upper right of the image, moving away. The ULL is also causing most of the shear, which is decreasing as the ULL moves away.

[crimi481]

Sorry - moving more N.N West
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

[ROCK]

Check out WV Loop
Whatever this "thing" is - it seems to be moving/expanding to N.N East
New center may form - somewhere in middle of it?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

Not the best way to view an organizing feature....get you a 4-1KM sat loop and zoom in....here:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

[crimi481]

Check out WV Loop
Whatever this "thing" is - it seems to be moving/expanding to N.N East
New center may form - somewhere in middle of it?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

You're seeing the upper level low, see the spin near the upper right of the image, moving away. The ULL is also causing most of the shear, which is decreasing as the ULL moves away.

Yes - the shear may make this a big right sided system - for short term. No clue after that

[Dean4Storms]

I think the models are initializing the low much too far north. Missing the fact it's sitting in virtually very little shear already which into turn delays the intensification and thus the poleward eventuality and feeling the trough. This Low near the north coast of the Yucatan gets a bit offshore later today and lookout tonight!

[caneman]

That is some heavy convection just to the NE of the YUC wouldn't be surprised if the low nearest to it wil lbe the main culprit. Really surprised this isn't an invest yet...

[caneman]

I posted the same time as you. I agree DEan. I think it is ramping up quickly.