2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[toad strangler]

I'm thinking this is no phantom. A legit possibility.

Disclaimer - Yes it's very far out and I'm not taking individual runs verbatim what-so-ever

[CyclonicFury]

I'm not believing it until I see the ECMWF or UKMET show it. The GFS and GEFS has a MAJOR issue with false alarms in this region.

[WeatherEmperor]

12Z GFS rolling and has a classic October setup for genesis in the WCAR with a low forming in 250 hours. Shows a large anticyclone over the WCAR and a break in the ridge over Florida and the EGOM. Yes same wave the Euro is picking up on which is triggers development.

300 hours:
[url]https://i.postimg.cc/597tMKjG/gfs-mslpurl]

Very interesting developments Gator. I think we are going to need another day or two before we can see the development show up on the operational Euro & Canadian models as they only go out 240 hours. Let's say that if by tomorrow or Wednesday, the Euro and Canadian also show development than it's game on.

[gatorcane]

I don’t think it is a phantom. Also note the GFS simulated IR and MSLP anomaly fields show a very large storm. I think Florida will need to watch this.

[kevin]

GFS operational run (12z) @384 hours. Left you can see the WCAR system (949! mbar), which is in the Gulf by that time and moving NNE while still strengthening. In the right corner you can see the Cape Verde system (980 mbar).

[SFLcane]

Certainly possible folks conditions are favorable and plenty of untouched heat content. I would like to see EPS come onboard

[DESTRUCTION5]

Certainly possible folks conditions are favorable and plenty of untouched heat content. I would like to see EPS come onboard

https://i.imgur.com/5kUI6Vu.png

Genesis starts around 270 Hrs...it's out of the 300s now....see if Euro hops on board in next 2 days.

[sma10]

Certainly possible folks conditions are favorable and plenty of untouched heat content. I would like to see EPS come onboard

https://i.imgur.com/5kUI6Vu.png

Seems to be a healthy size

[SFLcane]

GEFS concentration near the NW carib.

[gatorcane]

Euro with weak development of the Africa wave but still heads west towards Caribbean.

[SFLcane]

Euro with weak development of the Africa wave but still heads west towards Caribbean.

So the GFS is not alone with this idea in terms of bringing this TW into the carib and eventually developing once it potentially reaches the western carib.

[toad strangler]

Euro with weak development of the Africa wave but still heads west towards Caribbean.

That wave, if it's the catalyst for what the GFS is showing, is still about 3 to 4 days away from suspected area at 240 hrs on the 12z Euro

[Hurricaneman]

Euro with weak development of the Africa wave but still heads west towards Caribbean.

That wave, if it's the catalyst for what the GFS is showing, is still about 3 to 4 days away from suspected area at 240 hrs on the 12z Euro

Seems as though albeit slowly the Euro is trending towards the GFS with a wave coming into the Caribbean while development may be a few days beyond the Euro 240 hr and is also slower with the wave it’s lending credence to the GFS

The 12zEuro is also slower and more developed with the wave than 0z

[N2FSU]

12z Euro +240 hrs


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[sma10]

Euro with weak development of the Africa wave but still heads west towards Caribbean.

That wave, if it's the catalyst for what the GFS is showing, is still about 3 to 4 days away from suspected area at 240 hrs on the 12z Euro

Yes, furthermore, the 12Z Euro is actually developing it a tad more which is substantially slowing down its westward movement. These are important variables moving forward, as if it does actually develop, it may not even make it all the way to the W Carib

[toad strangler]

Euro with weak development of the Africa wave but still heads west towards Caribbean.

That wave, if it's the catalyst for what the GFS is showing, is still about 3 to 4 days away from suspected area at 240 hrs on the 12z Euro

Yes, furthermore, the 12Z Euro is actually developing it a tad more which is substantially slowing down its westward movement. These are important variables moving forward, as if it does actually develop, it may not even make it all the way to the W Carib

OR the weak L that Euro pops at 240 hours down off the coast of Columbia is the spark that shows on the GFS.

[SFLcane]

Upon further looking Euro has above normal pressures in the entire Caribbean/Gulf Complete opposite of GFS. This is the GFS bias in action.

[SFLcane]

The likely solution is this wave is a weak system that turns north in the Atlantic or East Caribbean.

[SFLcane]

EPS is developing it more quickly and will probably turn out to sea.

[blp]

12z runs have not cleared things up IMO yet but I think I finally see the seeds for something happening and it could originate from three places. And these are typical areas to seed development. First I see strong trough that leaves the southern piece of the vortcity behind in the W. Carribean or Second area is the S. Caribbean with a strong vortcity spinning off of the Colombian Low and third is a strong wave approaching the Leeward islands.

All this tells me is this is going to be complicated and slower to play out but that overall the Pressure Cooker is heating up and conditions are favorable for something to eventually develop. We probably will see one of these areas win out in the next few runs.