Low pressure developing over the western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[Frank P]

h114 969mb

[Frank P]

h117 965mb

[Frank P]

h120 961mb

[Frank P]

h126 953mb south of PC

[Category5Kaiju]

Yup, looks like the recent GFS has an intensifying hurricane that travels through the Yucatan Channel, kind of like a certain other storm that happened 6 years ago.

I wonder if the persistent convection we're seeing in real-time down in the WCAR has been fed into this model, so it has adjusted its prognosis accordingly.

[Stratton23]

So its either going to be a weak sloppy sheared system, or a stronger hurricane lol, no in between options here with the models lol

[Frank P]

h132 953mb heading for the Big Bend area

[Frank P]

Inland at the Big Bend area 953mb, and forward motion is accelerating NE

[Frank P]

[Nimbus]

Real buoy observations south of Jamaica registered a 1005 mb low passing so there may be a center near 15N -78w forming as we speak.

High pressure building over the area so if it shoots the channel it could be the GFS major

[FLpanhandle91]

Tough to prepare for these types of storms when the difference in longitude between Pensacola and Naples is only 5.5 degrees.

[kevin]

GFS clearly saw the thread was getting a bit boring and decided to spice it up again. In all seriousness, this one is a bit worrying as (if I understand correctly) this model run has some more recent data ingested into it so it might be more accurate than previous runs. We're 'still' about 2 days away from a TD according to this run so there's still many runs for things to change and they surely will. Very interested to see if other models will also start trending more like this GFS run with new data or whether this was just a coincidence.

[wx98]

For the sake of the reader, please don’t post every time a new hour comes in. A whole page of what the pressure is at each hour is aggravating and unhelpful.

[kevin]

Thought I'd post this here as it's relevant. You can clearly see the loop current on the MPI map as a elongated sub-880 mbar section stretching almost all the way to Florida . I know that at this point everyone's probably already aware of this, but in terms of MPI this potential storm has nuclear fuel to work with.

[caneman]

For the sake of the reader, please don’t post every time a new hour comes in. A whole page of what the pressure is at each hour is aggravating and unhelpful.

To each his own. I appreciate it.

[Stormcenter]

GFS will probably have heading to Tampa on its next run.
I don’t trust it one bit.

[eastcoastFL]

For the sake of the reader, please don’t post every time a new hour comes in. A whole page of what the pressure is at each hour is aggravating and unhelpful.

To each his own. I appreciate it.

I actually appreciate it as well.

[Stormcenter]

GFS will probably have heading to Tampa on its next run.
I don’t trust it one bit.

[wx98]

For the sake of the reader, please don’t post every time a new hour comes in. A whole page of what the pressure is at each hour is aggravating and unhelpful.

To each his own. I appreciate it.

I actually appreciate it as well.

The information is more easily found and understood by visiting an actual model page than trying to deduce what is being typed bit by bit, but okay….

[Cat5James]

GFS will probably have heading to Tampa on its next run.
I don’t trust it one bit.

Another 50 miles east and the 18Z GFS would have been a major problem for Tampa Bay area. Even with the current run I wouldn't be surprised to have flooding issues and storm surge 2-4 ft