Here's the subsurface data for 94-95, 02-03, and 04-05 events:
![Image](https://i.imgur.com/B3Fosnv.png)
Here's 2018:
![Image](https://i.imgur.com/Y31rcbc.png)
The 94-95, 02-03, and 04-05 events clearly had significantly more cooler waters allocated beneath Nino 3 and Nino 1+2 than 2018 has. Furthermore, Nino 1+2 needs to be at a consistent -1C/-1.5C to fit the authors definition of a Modoki El Nino, and CDAS has Nino 1+2 up to -4.0C. The GFS and the Euro also have below average trades in the far eastern Pacific as well, which will promote Nino 1+2 warming even more. So until that changes, it's going to be hard to favor a Modoki El Nino going into hurricane season.