Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

[gatorcane]

So they are currently gunning for the development of the EPAC system, I certainly wouldn't be surprised if we see 90E from that area, it does look good in the loops just lacks a little in regards to any sustianed deep convection near the center but you don't really need that to be worthy of an invest, if it carries on looking good expect it maybe sometime today/tonight?

I think TD1 in the EPAC will come 1st, not sure whether either possible development will beocme a tropical storm mind you.

It would appear the EPAC low has the best chance of development, but this is no surprise at all looking at the date. If this EPAC low gets going enough it would kill anything trying to form in the SW Caribbean.
I'm still thinking EPAC on this one....

[gatorcane]

NOGAPs 12Z consistent in bringing the system into the NW Caribbean just South of the Western part of Cuba. (left-hand side of the graphic).

[HURAKAN]

Keeping an Eye on the Tropics

An area of disturbed weather over the southern Caribbean will be monitored closely over the next few days as it drifts toward the northwest. There is a slight chance that the system becomes more organized, but due to the close proximity to land masses, any intensification will be very slow. Regardless, parts of central America could be dealing with some heavy rainfall late in the week.

Story by AccuWeather.com senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson.

[Aric Dunn]

[Ed Mahmoud]

Keeping an Eye on the Tropics

An area of disturbed weather over the southern Caribbean will be monitored closely over the next few days as it drifts toward the northwest. There is a slight chance that the system becomes more organized, but due to the close proximity to land masses, any intensification will be very slow. Regardless, parts of central America could be dealing with some heavy rainfall late in the week.

Story by AccuWeather.com senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson.

AccuWx graphics like that are kind of like being on the cover of Sports Illustrated...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Will this thread lock for an East Pac invest, or will it grow, and grow, until finally a 278 hour GFS 6Z run from the previous week, sometime in the future, calling for a TC finally verifies?

[Vortex]

If we get something to form and move between the 12z GFS and the 12Z Nogaps all bets are off in terms of intensity. Lates Vis is becoming increasingly interesting along 80W

[Derek Ortt]

I'm seeing EPAC organization. Not much from the Atlantic side

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'm seeing EPAC organization. Not much from the Atlantic side

Hurakan has just created the new 90E thread...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Will this thread lock for an East Pac invest, or will it grow, and grow, until finally a 278 hour GFS 6Z run from the previous week, sometime in the future, calling for a TC finally verifies?

Not locked, this thread goes on forever, and the party never ends...

[gatorcane]

Derek I agree EPAC organization is looking increasingly likely -- not the Atlantic.

[Decomdoug]

Will this thread lock for an East Pac invest, or will it grow, and grow, until finally a 278 hour GFS 6Z run from the previous week, sometime in the future, calling for a TC finally verifies?

Not locked, this thread goes on forever, and the party never ends...

Let’s keep it going until Aug for entertainment. By then something really will develop.

[KWT]

I'm not sure we should so readily ignore the chance sof a Sw Caribbean system yet because this is what the GFS recently has been suggesting, intial LP development in the EPAC followed by a steady development further east in the SWC.

[hurricanefloyd5]

don't get me wrong or anything, but it seems to me that half the board are saying theE-PAC will form and the other half are saying that the SW Carribean will form so i was wondering why everyone sound like they are so sure of themselves about both basins!!!!!!!!!

Dose this both side could be right??????

[tailgater]

I'm seeing the Upper trough still digging ever so slightly southward( 13n 90w) and it looks to be weaking, along with 1 wave that has passed to about 94W.
In my thinking this would at least for the short term hamper development of the western end of the surface trough that stretches from the Eastern Pacific to the SW Caribbean. The eastern end of surface trough has big sheer ATT to the north but looks to be lessening and another wave coming into the picture might spark off some big time T-storms in the southern Caribbean and far eastern Pacific in the coming days. This is NOT a forecast, Just me letting my mind wander a bit.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[cycloneye]

This thread will continue to be open as no invest has been up for the Caribbean area.As soon that occurs this thread will be locked.

[KWT]

Well if it ever occurs cycloneye!

I'm favouring the EAC region but that doesn't mean nothing can form in the Sw Caribbean. Whilst the EPAC has got a closed low with it the convection is really scattered and given there is still decent energy etc present in the SW portion of the Caribbean I wouldn't rule out that area for development past Thursday by any means.

[cycloneye]

12z NOGAPS



NOGAPS gives Caribbean area a boost.Take a look at the 12z run.

[HURAKAN]

I won't rule out anything. This is the wait game and best way to play it is to wait!!

[Vortex]

We may see an invest or even a weak TD form in the EPAC but will likely run aground before much happens other than a significiant rain event.

Now the SW carribean continues be the show to watch IMO over the next few days beginning NOW. Conditions will become more favorable and if the developing MLC/LLC can remain offshore ala NOGAPS then the potential for a cyclone is certainly there. We will likely see a deep burst of convection over the SW carribean later tonight. This may give way to the formation of an LLC by first Vis on Wednesday..More later