2015 Global model runs discussion

YouTube · #941 Postby **hurricanetrack** » Fri Sep 11, 2015 9:01 am

Just wondering what happened to this:

"weaker EC because there is a strong EPAC cane. As I said, EPAC development is nearly certain"

Seems there is no EPAC storm either. NHC shows 10 percent over next 5 days. So with no EPAC development at all, then what is the reason behind why the Euro was so wrong? Even GFS had EPAC development but now it's not going to happen. Guess the models just stink sometimes.

#942 Postby **Alyono** » Fri Sep 11, 2015 9:20 am

I believe EC had convective feedback issues in the deterministic, as the ensemble control, which is basically the operational with lower resolution, had nothing.

I'll have to look at more synoptics later today, after I wake up

#943 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Sep 11, 2015 9:28 am

panamatropicwatch wrote:This mess coming off of Texas entering the gulf, could this be what the euro was picking up for this weekend?

No, the Euro was developing a low in the Bay of Campeche, tracking it north to the TX coast then NE as a hurricane toward SE Louisiana.

#944 Postby **Stormcenter** » Fri Sep 11, 2015 10:22 am

This mess moving into the GOM will be an area to watch next week if it holds up. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-avn.html

#945 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Fri Sep 11, 2015 2:17 pm

hurricanetrack wrote:Just wondering what happened to this:

"weaker EC because there is a strong EPAC cane. As I said, EPAC development is nearly certain"

Seems there is no EPAC storm either. NHC shows 10 percent over next 5 days. So with no EPAC development at all, then what is the reason behind why the Euro was so wrong? Even GFS had EPAC development but now it's not going to happen. Guess the models just stink sometimes.

Suppressed Kelvin Wave now forecast by the ECMWF/GFS hurting development chances in the the region.

#946 Postby **Steve** » Fri Sep 11, 2015 2:25 pm

Kicks and Grins

12z CMC - Remnants of Grace turn into a beast and hit South Carolina from the South. Low off of Africa blossoms and heads north at about 45W and the one behind it is a bit weaker and also follows it north around 38W.

12z GFS - Doesn't do much, but the building TN/OH Valley high pressure suppresses remnants of Grace as just a ripple in the isobars into the Gulf.

Not much. Maybe some of the NW Gulf energy splits with some of it heading out toward the SEUS ahead of the coming cold front and some of it pushed southward down into the BoC. I don't see anything really much on the horizon except maybe the Eastern Atlantic, but it's September. And things can spin up out of nowhere with no model support this time of year. We're 1 day past the peak of the season, so we're in that prime-time zone.

Hammy · #947 Postby **Hammy** » Fri Sep 11, 2015 7:34 pm

GFS/Euro don't seem to be developing the system off Africa any longer and are focusing on the system behind it which means in all likelihood neither will.

#948 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Sep 11, 2015 7:45 pm

It's also possible we see development of both waves. That is the solution from the UKMET for example.

We do have a thread for this eastern Atlantic area too:
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=117539&hilit=

#949 Postby **OuterBanker** » Fri Sep 11, 2015 9:01 pm

Wow, latest crazy cousin (CMC) now has Hugo 2 in SC. Talk about crazy.

#950 Postby **Steve** » Fri Sep 11, 2015 9:21 pm

Different trajectory at landfall though. CMC Beast is a angled in more from the south. Hopefully it's not midnight in SC on the broken clock end of next week, but I tend to doubt it. IMHO it's Grace remnants that it plays with. I'd give the solution at least a 99% chance of failure. But it looks cool on the model map for sure.

#951 Postby **LarryWx** » Fri Sep 11, 2015 10:47 pm

It is definitely from Grace's remnants and the model is likely out in lala land as it usually is when it is on its own and when considering the projected shear. Follow the 700 mb vorticity:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=685

I'm going with only a 10% of regeneration into a TC at all anywhere as of now.

#952 Postby **OuterBanker** » Sat Sep 12, 2015 6:51 am

Oh well, CMC has dropped Hugo 2. Still SC but a weakling. But the ever changing and entertaining crazy cousin now has something for Naw lens. Hey, it's the only entertainment we have this year.

Hammy · #953 Postby **Hammy** » Sat Sep 12, 2015 6:38 pm

GFS seems to develop two systems within 96 hours, is this a reasonable possibility?

#954 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Sep 12, 2015 7:29 pm

Hammy wrote:GFS seems to develop two systems within 96 hours, is this a reasonable possibility?

Yeah why not. Some of the globals like the UKMET show this possibility. I started a new thread on the wave about ready to merge off Africa.

12Z UKMET:

#955 Postby **LarryWx** » Sat Sep 12, 2015 7:57 pm

Hammy wrote:GFS seems to develop two systems within 96 hours, is this a reasonable possibility?

I don't know but the MJO is/is going to be mainly weak/within the circle, which has been relatively favorable vs outside the circle for geneses in general during September, especially during stronger El Niño.

Hammy · #956 Postby **Hammy** » Sun Sep 13, 2015 1:11 am

Euro running, appears through 72 hours to develop the second system almost as quickly as the GFS develops the first.

Hurricaneman · #957 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Mon Sep 14, 2015 11:17 pm

The models have the ex-Grace becoming Grace again in 5 days and seems to have the wave currently in the lesser antilles mixed with a front forming a low after 5 days near the Bahamas so a few areas to watch the next 5 days

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

#958 Postby **Extratropical94** » Tue Sep 15, 2015 12:24 am

spiral wrote:http://i60.tinypic.com/8vruxj.png
Arabian sea GFS is spinning up a system mid-next week.

Is this associated with the vorticity of the current invest moving inland in the Bay of Bengal?

ninel conde · #959 Postby **ninel conde** » Tue Sep 15, 2015 4:26 am

Hurricaneman wrote:The models have the ex-Grace becoming Grace again in 5 days and seems to have the wave currently in the lesser antilles mixed with a front forming a low after 5 days near the Bahamas so a few areas to watch the next 5 days

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=180hr

perfect pattern if el nino allows something

Hurricaneman · #960 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Tue Sep 15, 2015 5:41 pm

The system the models develop near the east coast in about 5 to 7 days might be the system that was lemoned a few days ago combining with the tropical wave in the Antilles

Edit: Might be the wave connected to 93L

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

2015 Global model runs discussion

Re:

Re: 2015 Global model runs discussion

Re:

Re: 2015 Global model runs discussion

Re: 2015 Global model runs discussion

Re: 2015 Global model runs discussion

Re: 2015 Global model runs discussion

Re: 2015 Global model runs discussion

Re:

Re: 2015 Global model runs discussion

Who is online