2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[toad strangler]

I’m enjoying the calm … for now.

 http://twitter.com/michaelrlowry/status/1548675567125495817

[Blown Away]

18z GFS seemed to show strong TW’s moving through the MDR.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS seemed to show strong TW’s moving through the MDR.

On Thursday a strong wave moves thru PR.

[captainbarbossa19]

18z GFS seemed to show strong TW’s moving through the MDR.

On Thursday a strong wave moves thru PR.


https://i.imgur.com/6yUcJEz.jpg

Need to keep an eye on it because the GFS takes it into the Gulf next weekend. Nothing much may come of it, but you never know.

[skyline385]

18z GFS seemed to show strong TW’s moving through the MDR.

On Thursday a strong wave moves thru PR.


https://i.imgur.com/6yUcJEz.jpg

Need to keep an eye on it because the GFS takes it into the Gulf next weekend. Nothing much may come of it, but you never know.

The Gulf is very inviting right now for sure.

[Category5Kaiju]

On Thursday a strong wave moves thru PR.


https://i.imgur.com/6yUcJEz.jpg

Need to keep an eye on it because the GFS takes it into the Gulf next weekend. Nothing much may come of it, but you never know.

The Gulf is very inviting right now for sure.

UOHC in the Caribbean and GoM are off the charts right now too

[wxman57]

Shear is still rather high across the Caribbean & Gulf. That should relax by the second week of August. Probably quiet until then.

[skyline385]

0Z GFS still pushing some decent waves into the Caribbean, but like wxman said lots of shear in the Western Atlantic

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[IsabelaWeather]

18z GFS seemed to show strong TW’s moving through the MDR.

On Thursday a strong wave moves thru PR.


https://i.imgur.com/6yUcJEz.jpg

Yeah, NWS-SJ has been mentioning it in their AFD. Hopefully it brings some fun weather, but I miss nearly everything interesting here on the NW side

[SFLcane]

Shear is still rather high across the Caribbean & Gulf. That should relax by the second week of August. Probably quiet until then.

Yeah now we just need the Pacific to quiet down for that to happen.

[IsabelaWeather]

Shear is still rather high across the Caribbean & Gulf. That should relax by the second week of August. Probably quiet until then.

Yeah now we just need the Pacific to quiet down for that to happen.

In due time, this happens a lot. A month from now will be so much different

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Slight MDR EPS signal in the long range. Baby steps I suppose...

[zzh]

EPS has some signals on AEWs. Still 10+ days out, we will see.

[weeniepatrol]

18z gfs shows mdr development.

[Blown Away]

18z gfs shows mdr development.

Definitely a robust wave moving through MDR into the NE Caribbean. Something to watch.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Looks like a TD forms from a low-latitude wave at the end of the 00z Euro:

[aspen]

One member of the 06z GEFS ensemble becomes a Laura repeat, passing over the Greater Antilles in late July/early August and hitting the TX/LA border as a 946mb Cat 4 on August 5th. Thankfully, this is highly unlikely to verify exactly, because we don’t need another Laura repeat. Overall the 06z GEFS looks more active, though.

[skyline385]

Will say though that the 0z EPS and the GEFS since yesterday evening have had fewer members than before. EPS also has most members getting pushed into CA in the 0z run so could be a ridge building up which was not correctly modeled before.

[Category5Kaiju]

One member of the 06z GEFS ensemble becomes a Laura repeat, passing over the Greater Antilles in late July/early August and hitting the TX/LA border as a 946mb Cat 4 on August 5th. Thankfully, this is highly unlikely to verify exactly, because we don’t need another Laura repeat. Overall the 06z GEFS looks more active, though.

Maybe it's taking into account the mind-boggling Loop Current

But yes, very interesting to see models become more alert that there may be something trying to form. Let's just hope it's something weak if it is; seeing a major storm this early in the hurricane season wouldn't be a good sign at all

[Teban54]

I remember even though Euro/EPS was the first to sniff out Bonnie, at that time people were saying Euro has a bias of favoring MDR genesis early season (just like GFS and its infamous CAGs). It also briefly tried to develop the wave behind Bonnie which didn't verify. Does the same apply here?