2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[LarryWx]

The 12Z GEFS has 6 hurricanes out of 31 members in the GOM or NW Caribbean on Aug 25th. Keep in mind the current record hot GOM.

[Stratton23]

Western gulf might need to be watched next week, models are showing some development of another tropical wave ( ahead of the other one still in the mdr) general movement is west across the GOM, ensembles starting to see it, EPS has about a 35-40% of a td forming

[LarryWx]

Similar to the 12Z UKMET, the 12Z Euro has a recurving TS well out in the MDR, which appears to be from the subsequent AEW to emerge from Africa in a few days rather than the one W of there.

[Ivanhater]

Both 12z Euro and Canadian are in agreement of a Tropical storm in the Gulf in 10 days



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[LarryWx]

Both 12z Euro and Canadian are in agreement of a Tropical storm in the Gulf in 10 days

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230813/8eb47046c954d144b6fdc14d2a30f699.jpg https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230813/f860328e24f40d32ff82c0bc1b57081f.jpg

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I understand the idea of vigilance being needed in the GOM late month but I don't think the 12Z Euro actually has a TS. I think it is no stronger than a TD per wind maps. Then again, we all know that a 10 day map should be taken with a grain and that there could end up being a TS there then, of course.

[Blown Away]

Both 12z Euro and Canadian are in agreement of a Tropical storm in the Gulf in 10 days

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230813/8eb47046c954d144b6fdc14d2a30f699.jpg https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230813/f860328e24f40d32ff82c0bc1b57081f.jpg

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12z Euro… Still moving TW through FL Straits then TS into GOM.

[Blown Away]

12z ECENS come alive and inching much farther W.

[SFLcane]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/nrnRc89n/63795052.gif [/url]

12z ECENS come alive and inching much farther W.

It’s a fish marathon lol..

[Teban54]

Wait until the last week of August, Derek says. He may be right.

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1690578576809099264

This tweet about CMC "dropping all development" was made at extremely poor timing, as not only does the 12z CMC show tons of development, but it's getting some support from GFS and Euro as well. Almost feels like either a trigger happy response or confirmation bias.

[LarryWx]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/nrnRc89n/63795052.gif [/url]

12z ECENS come alive and inching much farther W.

It’s a fish marathon lol..

I hope so for those who don't want to be hit like myself, but TX, Bermuda, and the NE Caribbean at the very least would beg to differ.

[Cpv17]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/nrnRc89n/63795052.gif [/url]

12z ECENS come alive and inching much farther W.

It’s a fish marathon lol..

I hope so for those who don't want to be hit like myself, but TX, Bermuda, and the NE Caribbean at the very least would beg to differ.

I’m located about one hour SW of Houston and have only had 1” of rain here in 11 weeks and have been in the upper 90’s to low 100’s during most of that time period. So yeah, we definitely need several inches of rain here & the only way we could possibly get it would be from the tropics, it seems.

[jlauderdal]

Wait until the last week of August, Derek says. He may be right.

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1690578576809099264

This tweet about CMC "dropping all development" was made at extremely poor timing, as not only does the 12z CMC show tons of development, but it's getting some support from GFS and Euro as well. Almost feels like either a trigger happy response or confirmation bias.

Lack of consistency with the modeling leaves us with anything can happen...however, persistance is the way to go for now, limited to no developmemt for the time being, too much dry air and shear in the future

[Blown Away]

Wait until the last week of August, Derek says. He may be right.

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1690578576809099264

This tweet about CMC "dropping all development" was made at extremely poor timing, as not only does the 12z CMC show tons of development, but it's getting some support from GFS and Euro as well. Almost feels like either a trigger happy response or confirmation bias.

Lack of consistency with the modeling leaves us with anything can happen...however, persistance is the way to go for now, limited to no developmemt for the time being, too much dry air and shear in the future

12z ECENS… Out of nowhere showing conditions to support Cat 4/5 in SW Atlantic… Bunch of strong members, maybe most aggressive ECENS so far in 2023??? ECENS say what dust???

[LarryWx]

This tweet about CMC "dropping all development" was made at extremely poor timing, as not only does the 12z CMC show tons of development, but it's getting some support from GFS and Euro as well. Almost feels like either a trigger happy response or confirmation bias.

Lack of consistency with the modeling leaves us with anything can happen...however, persistance is the way to go for now, limited to no developmemt for the time being, too much dry air and shear in the future

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/3xF9wrQV/7-E385425-1-F2-E-4626-9866-9-F351680-EECB.jpg [/url]

12z ECENS… Out of nowhere showing conditions to support Cat 4/5 in SW Atlantic… Bunch of strong members, maybe most aggressive ECENS so far in 2023??? ECENS say what dust???

I counted 15 Hs (30% of members) at a minimum from just the wave now in the E MDR. There's something like 30 members from all of the waves, combined, with a H.

[IcyTundra]

GFS, CMC, and Euro all have some vorticity that trys to develop into a weak low in the Gulf early next week. Shear doesn't look terrible but dry air will probably be an issue that limits development. Just hoping for increased rain chances from this here in Texas.

[chaser1]

GFS, CMC, and Euro all have some vorticity that trys to develop into a weak low in the Gulf early next week. Shear doesn't look terrible but dry air will probably be an issue that limits development. Just hoping for increased rain chances from this here in Texas.

It could either be feast or famine for you. Even mid level development would likely pull most of it's precip well to the east and north of the S. Texas coast and keeping S Texas on the wrong side of a continued dry northwesterly flow. On the other hand, a less organized open wave flaring up as a result of some upper level shear could simply progress westward and spread precip up & down the entire coastline.

[Cpv17]

GFS, CMC, and Euro all have some vorticity that trys to develop into a weak low in the Gulf early next week. Shear doesn't look terrible but dry air will probably be an issue that limits development. Just hoping for increased rain chances from this here in Texas.

They’re saying it would take about 10” to get us out of this drought. The models you mentioned have some action coming our way but as of right now don’t have much moisture associated with it. Like Don of 2011… poof.

[Landy]

Reposting from the thread for the current AOI since another cyclone forms.

[Blown Away]

Probably still a fish storm, but the GFS trend is W and stronger.

[IcyTundra]

The dry air in the MDR will continue to be a problem. Maybe some of these leading waves can help with reducing the dry air for future waves.