Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[blp]

I expect the models overall to handle this system better than with 92L/Hermine. It appears the models all agree on a very good environment for the system to develop which should lead to more consistency. Also the models always do better when you have a well defined system and they will have one once in the Caribbean.

[Alyono]

A strengthening storm in the graveyard? Does that really sound reasonable? Anything can happen, but I wonder if development will be delayed until the western Caribbean.

A storm can strengthen in the graveyard, so long as it establishes itself before it reaches the Islands as a self sustaining tropical cyclone with a closed LLC. See Felix and Dean in 2007.

They can also form in the eastern Caribbean. See Cesar, Chantal, Claudette, Mindy, Dennis, Alpha, Gamma, Noel, Gustav, Omar, Emily (2011), Gabrielle

[colbroe]

Looks like the thunder storm activity is currently consolidating ,if the trend continues we will have depression very soon.

[gatorcane]

Long-range GFS ensembles are again mostly east of the operational by a decent amount. Note all of them show a significant system.

[Ivanhater]

Not liking the last few runs of the GFS

[gatorcane]

Wide Atlantic shot and the system is off on the far bottom-right. It is building convection tonight.

[ScottNAtlanta]

A strengthening storm in the graveyard? Does that really sound reasonable? Anything can happen, but I wonder if development will be delayed until the western Caribbean.

A storm can strengthen in the graveyard, so long as it establishes itself before it reaches the Islands as a self sustaining tropical cyclone with a closed LLC. See Felix and Dean in 2007.

They can also form in the eastern Caribbean. See Cesar, Chantal, Claudette, Mindy, Dennis, Alpha, Gamma, Noel, Gustav, Omar, Emily (2011), Gabrielle

Add Emily 2005 as well (that name should have been retired then)

[ScottNAtlanta]

Hard to believe they have this up to 70% in the 5 day yet no invest

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/779825368454705152

[abajan]

Wide Atlantic shot and the system is off on the far bottom-right. It is building convection tonight.

http://s21.postimg.org/xlwnyz147/avn_animated.gif

I'm wondering if that isn't just the usual diurnal waxing of convection. If it persists a couple hours after sunrise, it may indeed be well on its way.

[GCANE]

[Dylan]

Hard to believe they have this up to 70% in the 5 day yet no invest

The NHC is waiting for a Microwave Image so they can plot it & declare it.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/adriansweather/status/779839985436467200

[robbielyn]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/779825368454705152

really? well that settles it. It's going to mexico! Hasta la vista bebe!

[centuryv58]

 https://twitter.com/adriansweather/status/779839985436467200

Great. Something to look forward to in my nightmares.

[robbielyn]

 https://twitter.com/adriansweather/status/779839985436467200

that wont ever happen. NEXT!

[Alyono]

A storm can strengthen in the graveyard, so long as it establishes itself before it reaches the Islands as a self sustaining tropical cyclone with a closed LLC. See Felix and Dean in 2007.

They can also form in the eastern Caribbean. See Cesar, Chantal, Claudette, Mindy, Dennis, Alpha, Gamma, Noel, Gustav, Omar, Emily (2011), Gabrielle

Add Emily 2005 as well (that name should have been retired then)

Emily was a 75 kt hurricane when it smacked Grenada. it formed well east of the Caribbean

[Alyono]

the convection is 5 degrees ahead of the area to focus on

[stormlover2013]

Alyono- what are your thoughts?? How do you think the upper air pattern will end up by looking at all the data I know it's early but what is your gut telling you ?

[gatorcane]

GFS Simulated IR. Would certainly make Floridians rather nervous if it verified.