Pouch PGI46L - Near Windwards - (Is invest 95L)

[cycloneye]

Over Dominica right now. Rain and rain.

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/animMOSAIC2.html

Oh you're definitely right my friend, the same here near 4PM, becoming strong, numerous areas are suffering from localized flooding.

I edited the title to include Lesser Antilles as it looks like bad weather is spreading north of the Windwards.

[ColinDelia]

18z GFS text output. Kicks in at 54 hours. over Honduras from hour 102-120. This text product doesn't give data after that.

TG,021, 2010092018, 03, GFSO, 054, 130N, 707W, 29, 1006, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,021, 2010092018, 03, GFSO, 060, 131N, 720W, 33, 1005, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,021, 2010092018, 03, GFSO, 066, 137N, 735W, 35, 1005, XX, 34, NEQ, 0083, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,021, 2010092018, 03, GFSO, 072, 140N, 752W, 36, 1004, XX, 34, NEQ, 0077, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,021, 2010092018, 03, GFSO, 078, 140N, 770W, 35, 1004, XX, 34, NEQ, 0087, 0000, 0000, 0062, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,021, 2010092018, 03, GFSO, 084, 144N, 784W, 35, 1004, XX, 34, NEQ, 0104, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,021, 2010092018, 03, GFSO, 090, 148N, 801W, 39, 1003, XX, 34, NEQ, 0103, 0000, 0000, 0058, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,021, 2010092018, 03, GFSO, 096, 150N, 820W, 39, 1002, XX, 34, NEQ, 0089, 0060, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,021, 2010092018, 03, GFSO, 102, 149N, 837W, 45, 1001, XX, 34, NEQ, 0086, 0000, 0000, 0072, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,021, 2010092018, 03, GFSO, 108, 150N, 854W, 29, 1003, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,021, 2010092018, 03, GFSO, 114, 151N, 871W, 29, 1004, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,021, 2010092018, 03, GFSO, 120, 151N, 889W, 26, 1005, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF

[cycloneye]

Yeah, it's getting bigger.

[Vortex]

18Z Nogaps turns NE at end of run after a date with honduras.



https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[cycloneye]

I would not be surprised if is mentioned at 8 PM TWO.

[BigB0882]

I have no reason behind this but I don't see this turning N and NE so sharply. Wouldn't it be a more gradual turn than the models are showing? For example, look how gradual the turn from W to WNW to NNW has been in the recurvers this season. Would there be a reason this would go from due W to heading NE so quickly? Is it just a really strong trough, and if so, would that be common in late September?

[Gustywind]

Over Dominica right now. Rain and rain.

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/animMOSAIC2.html

Oh you're definitely right my friend, the same here near 4PM, becoming strong, numerous areas are suffering from localized flooding.

I edited the title to include Lesser Antilles as it looks like bad weather is spreading north of the Windwards.

Good catch Cycloneye that seems pretty reasonnable

[Gustywind]

Strong showers has occured this afternoon in Guadeloupe. Meteo-France has reported 50 to 60 millimeters in some localities like Sainte-Rose and Deshaies. This area of tstorms should continue to spread on Guadeloupe tonight and tommorow morning before an expected improvement during the afternoon.

[expat2carib]

Over Dominica right now. Rain and rain.

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/animMOSAIC2.html

Oh you're definitely right my friend, the same here near 4PM, becoming strong, numerous areas are suffering from localized flooding.

I edited the title to include Lesser Antilles as it looks like bad weather is spreading north of the Windwards.

Thanks Luis! It's a rain event here over the Lesser Antilles. Here it's been raining and raining. Lot's of convection. All going in to the "brewing pot" Hot water temperatures and unstable weather. Doesn't look good for further "on the road"

[Gustywind]

From Stormcarib.com
http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/curre ... idad.shtml
Updates from the Islands -
- - Trinidad & Tobago - -
- Showers and Thunderstorms for Trinidad and Tobago over the next few days
By Katy Young <katy at sbms.co.tt>
Date: Mon, 20 Sep 2010 20:40:08 +0100

Latest from Met Crown Point: The ITCZ and a surface level Trough of low pressure are working in tandem to produce sporadic showers and thundershowers over Trinidad, Tobago and the Windward Islands.

These conditions could continue for another two days.

It is possible for 'Flash Flooding' and 'Land Slides' to follow these conditions in areas so prone.

Weather for tomorrow: Occasionally cloudy with some showers and the risk of isolated thunder-showers, Winds: VRB 5-11 knts.
Seas: Normal. Waves: 1.5 to 2.0m in open water and almost calm in sheltered areas.
Forecast High : 30⁰C, Humidity range: 65/90%, Forecast Low: 23°C, Heat Index:31 ⁰C

Weather for Wednesday: Cloudy with showers and thunder-showers. Winds: E-ENE 8-16 knts, with higher gusts in local squalls.
Seas: Normal to moderate; occasionally choppy in squalls. Waves: Up to 2.5m in open water and under 1.0m in sheltered areas.
Forecast High : 28⁰C. Humidity range: 70/95%. Forecast Low: 23°C. Heat Index:29⁰C

Thanks
Katy
--
Katy Young,
Director,
Store Bay Marine Services,
Unit B, Bago's Beach Bar,
Pigeon Point Road,
Crown Point,
Tobago.
http://www.sbms.co.tt

[cycloneye]

Some increase in the 850mb vorticity.

[ROCK]

still out 372hr for landfall in the big bend...still that is a long way and I think the systems will not sit there for days waiting in the carib to make a move....timing looks way to slow...

[HurrMark]

Wow...50 pages for a wave that isn't even an invest yet...

I think the environment is pretty ripe for development, and this is probably the US's greatest chance for a significant landfalling system this year. Of course, the models are all over the place right now, so it is too soon to tell what is going to happen...

[cycloneye]

Off Topic= To notify the peeps that Invest 94L has been renumbered so it will be TD 14 or Tropical Storm Lisa at 11 PM EDT.

[Vortex]

18Z GFS ensembles at H180..All over it NW carribean



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal180.gif

[Vortex]

H204 GFS 18Z ensembles stronger and near western Cuba




http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal204.gif

[Florida1118]

Off Topic= To notify the peeps that Invest 94L has been renumbered so it will be TD 14 or Tropical Storm Lisa at 11 PM EDT.

Thank you Cycloneye! I was about to stop checking that thread. My local mets RPM has this developing in 36hrs, and TS Matthew at 50hrs.

[gatorcane]

I have no reason behind this but I don't see this turning N and NE so sharply. Wouldn't it be a more gradual turn than the models are showing? For example, look how gradual the turn from W to WNW to NNW has been in the recurvers this season. Would there be a reason this would go from due W to heading NE so quickly? Is it just a really strong trough, and if so, would that be common in late September?

Why not? Remember the trough that turned Charley in august? The trough are abnormally strong this year.

[Vortex]

1950 looks to be an excellent analog...strong la nina and looks nearly identical to this years tracks thus far...

[Ivanhater]

I have no reason behind this but I don't see this turning N and NE so sharply. Wouldn't it be a more gradual turn than the models are showing? For example, look how gradual the turn from W to WNW to NNW has been in the recurvers this season. Would there be a reason this would go from due W to heading NE so quickly? Is it just a really strong trough, and if so, would that be common in late September?

Why not? Remember the trough that turned Charley in august? The trough are abnormally strong this year.

On the flip side the SE Ridge has been very persistent this season.