Water Temps???

[bucman1]

Are SST'S warm enough to support a Strong Tropical Storm /Cat 1 or 2 Hurricane?

[gatorcane]

Are SST'S warm enough to support a Strong Tropical Storm /Cat 1 or 2 Hurricane?

where in the basin are you talking about?

[bucman1]

Gatorcane,

How are you?

I'm talking one the system gets in the gulf-anywahre from Mobile south to the Florida West coast./

[RL3AO]

The GOM is probably warm enough now. The Caribbean is probably warm enough year round, but because of wind shear we have an off season.

[KWT]

The southern portion of the GOM probably could but any system that gets too far north into the gulf will have the shelf water to deal with and will weaken this early in the season, though in another 45 days time that won't be the case for tropical storms anyway...

[Meso]

For interest sake the current SSTs

[Dionne]

NDBC has several locations in the northern GOM reporting SST's in the 80F zone. Isn't water temps of 80F the threshold for supporting development of systems as they enter GOM?

[ftolmsteen]

Most of the Gulf is at or near 80 degrees except for the northeastern section off of FL which is hanging around 76/77, which is normal. But the waters below the surface are still cooler and would not fuel a storm to gain significant strength right now. Most of the gulf is warm enough to sustain a weak system, but nothing major. But everyday is making the water warmer and warmer so by the time it's mid June all of the GOM will be warm enough.

[wobblehead]

Buoy Data reports offer a plethera of weather data. Its important to look for what water depth the water temps are taken which is often noted in the info. about the buoy itself. The depth of the 80 degree water temp is critical in sustaining a storm. If I recall the depth mark is about 50-80 feet. Anything less is subject to cooling by upwelling during a storm.
Today's surface water temp at Dauphin Island is 84 degrees.

[ROCK]

Heres a link that will answer all of your questions....

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/at.html

[x-y-no]

SSTs may be high enough, but the southern jet still extends across the gulf - that's the limiting factor this time of year.

[MGC]

The ridge that has been stuck over the GOM has allowed ample sunshine to warm the gulf waters. Some spots are above 83 degrees. That warmth will be mixing down so by July the GOM should be cooking. All I can say is I hope we don't get a hurricane in the GOM with a large anticyclone parked over it......MGC

[Thunder44]

Here's close-up of the GOM showing SST's greater than 26C (80F):



You can find the image at this site:
https://oceanography.navy.mil/legacy/we ... oc/*/*/*/8

[srainhoutx]

SSTs may be high enough, but the southern jet still extends across the gulf - that's the limiting factor this time of year.

Until August possibly. Keep an eye on the pattern. Been persistant since February.

[wxman57]

Neither the GFS nor the ECMWF develops anything in the Gulf on the latest runs. I'd remind you that the GFS and ECMWF had Arthur moving up into the Gulf at first.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Neither the GFS nor the ECMWF develops anything in the Gulf on the latest runs. I'd remind you that the GFS and ECMWF had Arthur moving up into the Gulf at first.

Unrelated to anything occuring now, at hour 126 the 12Z GFS miraculously creates a 850 mb vort max West of Cuba, and aims it off towards Louisiana.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2008060212&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation




I do mean miraculous, from nothing to something.

[KWT]

Yep Ed the GFS has been trying to form something off in that region for the last 3-4 runs from what I've seen of it but it does look a little like the typical GFS phantom system I have to admit but we shall see, because you just never know!

[Ed Mahmoud]

Yep Ed the GFS has been trying to form something off in that region for the last 3-4 runs from what I've seen of it but it does look a little like the typical GFS phantom system I have to admit but we shall see, because you just never know!

It just suddenly appeared, no hint of any vorticity at all, so I'm don't think I trust it.

[Ed Mahmoud]

While the water offshore Texas and Louisiana is near 28ºC, the depth of water warmer than 26º is less (hard to exactly calibrate the eyeballs) than 25 meters, so any hurricane would have to move with alacrity to avoid being weakened by its own upwelling.

[KWT]

Yep, Caribbean and the loop current region looks plenty warm now down to a good depth, the gulf will keep warming nicely so watch the depth of the 26 degree isotherm just drop bit by bit over the next 2 months.