Houston/Galveston forecast......

[Johnny]

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
255 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2003

THE FOUR CORNERS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE GFS AND ETA TO
BE SQUEEZED ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK. AS IT
DOES SO...THE WEAK 500 MB LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
INTO TX BY WEDNESDAY. THE VERY ACTIVE CORRIDOR ACROSS SE AND E TX
TODAY MAY CONTINUE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VORTICITY
MAXIMUM PUSH SOUTH FROM THE PLAINS. BY THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
AGAIN BUILD INTO SE TX FROM THE NORTH...THOUGH AT THAT TIME THE GFS
MOVES A TROPICAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF. FORECAST CHALLENGE
OF THE DAY CONCERNS SEVERE POTENTIAL TONIGHT...THEN POPS TUESDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE ETA AND GFS DIFFER ESPECIALLY IN
THE SURFACE FEATURES AS THE GFS SPINS UP LOW ALONG THE COAST AND
PUSHES IT TOWARD LA WHILE THE ETA KEEPS MORE OF A SURFACE TROUGH.
FEEL THAT THE ETA MAY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE GFS LOOKS REASONABLE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TROPICAL SYSTEM IT MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF LATER IN THE WEEK.

CONCERNING POPS AND SEVERE POTENTIAL TONIGHT...THE BEST CHANCES LOOK
TO BE EARLY THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT THE BEST AREAS LOOK TO BE MORE
SOUTH AND WEST AS THE 500 MB LOW APPROACHES SE TX...IF THE GFS AND ETA
ARE CORRECT. TO TAKE INTO THE ACCOUNT THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL NOT BE
SPECIFIC IN THE FORECAST BUT WILL MENTION THE SEVERE POSSIBILITIES
TONIGHT. LIKE THE ETA MORE THAN THE GFS BEYOND TONIGHT...THOUGH WILL
CONTINUE THE CURRENT COMPROMISE. WILL UP POPS SOME SATURDAY TO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT THE GFS HANDLING OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM. THE MODEL PULLS
PW/S OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT.


What are they looking at here?