signs of a very busy season

[Mecklenburg]

as of July 21, we already have 4 named storms... two storms less than 2005 and 1 storm more than 1995, could this tell that we are going to have a busy 2008 season?

[KWT]

Maybe a little early yet but it does tend to favor a very above average season in terms of ACE at least and with 4 NS at this stage I do think a 17-20 NS season is possible...I've got a sneaky feeling we are heading for a 1995 type season.

[stevetampa33614]

Ive gotta throw it in. After these 2 systems there isnt much out there so we should get a bit of a break until August. We will have to see what the african wave does. But other than that I see nothing in the pipes really unless a trough comes down and forms. So I would say my prediction is still on target 19/8/3. A bit above average.

[george_r_1961]

Ive gotta throw it in. After these 2 systems there isnt much out there so we should get a bit of a break until August. We will have to see what the african wave does. But other than that I see nothing in the pipes really unless a trough comes down and forms. So I would say my prediction is still on target 19/8/3. A bit above average.

We could have another TD or perhaps even a named storm within 48 hours as per the 8pm TWO.

[stevetampa33614]

Ive gotta throw it in. After these 2 systems there isnt much out there so we should get a bit of a break until August. We will have to see what the african wave does. But other than that I see nothing in the pipes really unless a trough comes down and forms. So I would say my prediction is still on target 19/8/3. A bit above average.

We could have another TD or perhaps even a named storm within 48 hours as per the 8pm TWO.

Ya just saw that

[windycity]

Plus, theres a pretty impressive wave behind our monster that i believe, the models want to develop. 2005; no. neverless, this season will be remembered. Just a gut feeling.

[Mecklenburg]

this is getting very creepy like 2005... still on the 3rd week of july and we are about to witness the future edouard... i'm 50% sure that this season would be remembered as well

[americanrebel]

this is getting very creepy like 2005... still on the 3rd week of june and we are about to witness the future edouard... i'm 50% sure that this season would be remembered as well

Did we go back in time, I thought we were in the 3rd week of July? LMAO

[Mecklenburg]

this is getting very creepy like 2005... still on the 3rd week of june and we are about to witness the future edouard... i'm 50% sure that this season would be remembered as well

Did we go back in time, I thought we were in the 3rd week of July? LMAO

sorry just a typo... sheesh... there... edited...

[americanrebel]

Ive gotta throw it in. After these 2 systems there isnt much out there so we should get a bit of a break until August. We will have to see what the african wave does. But other than that I see nothing in the pipes really unless a trough comes down and forms. So I would say my prediction is still on target 19/8/3. A bit above average.

Pretty bold prediction since we are only 10 days from August. Would be shocked if we get more than 2 more name storms in July. I'm thinking just one more before August, but then in August who knows we might have 10 named storms, you never know.

[Mecklenburg]

we might even produce 4 category 4 storms in august and september...

[Chacor]

we might even produce 4 category 4 storms in august and september...

Hype like this with no proof is not conducive. It's impossible to tell what the future holds.

[Mecklenburg]

bertha was pretty odd

[Chacor]

I don't think one can judge the remainder of a season based on one "pretty odd" cyclone, though.

[KWT]

True Chacor though to have 4 named storms before August does suggest a pretty active season even if we have a more normal peak season. I know 1997 did have about the same amount but they were developed from non-tropical waves.

[Mecklenburg]

True Chacor though to have 4 named storms before August does suggest a pretty active season even if we have a more normal peak season. I know 1997 did have about the same amount but they were developed from non-tropical waves.

hmmm... you could be right, i was also kinda thinking about this season will be like 1997...

[KWT]

difference is with 1997 we had what can only be described as a super El nino forming which obviously killed any development in the busier part of the season, obviously this season is quite a lot different.

[Category 5]

this is getting very creepy like 2005... still on the 3rd week of july and we are about to witness the future edouard... i'm 50% sure that this season would be remembered as well

uhhhhhhhh, no. It's not, not even close, not happening.

Lets compare.

as of July 21st

2005: 6/3/2
2008: 4/1/1

In 2005 at this time we had one Category 5, a strong cat 4, three hurricanes make landfall, two MAJOR hurricanes make landfall, FIVE landfalling tropical systems overall, and records already falling left and right.

We're MILES behind 2005.

hmmm... you could be right, i was also kinda thinking about this season will be like 1997...

No you weren't, you just finished comparing it to 2005.

[RL3AO]

2008 Hurricane season notables
July 19, 2008, marked the first time on record that three July tropical storms were active on the same day in the Atlantic. Bertha, Cristobal, and Dolly were all tropical storms yesterday. Thanks to Margie Kieper for checking on this stat for me.

July 2008 already ranks 5th all-time for number of July named storms (three), and 4th all-time for the amount of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)--30 ACE units. Only 2005 (60.4 ACE units), 1916 (48.5 ACE units) and 1933 (34.0 ACE units) had more. All three of these years had at least five major hurricanes and were exceptionally active. Thanks go to Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State for compiling this stat.

Bertha: longest-lived July hurricane on record (and the longest-lived hurricane so early in the season). Bertha was a hurricane 7.75 days, which eclipses the previous record of 7 days held by Hurricane Emily of 2005.

Bertha: longest-lived tropical storm on record for July (and for so early in the season), 17.25 Named Storm Days (NSD). Bertha was the fourth longest lived named storm since 1950 to have formed in any month (trailing Ginger (1971) - 21.25 NSD, Carrie (1957) - 19.50 NSD, and Alberto (2000) - 19.25 NSD).

Bertha: farthest east forming tropical storm and hurricane for so early in the season.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=992&tstamp=200807

[Cryomaniac]

Dolly was named after Bertha became ET.