Possible Development in C Atlantic Wave (Is invest 92L)

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

Observations from Cape Verde islands show NNW to North winds.I dont know if that means anything but its somewhat interesting.

Code: Select all

Latest 8 AM (12) Aug 06 82 (28) 73 (23) 29.91 (1013) NNW 15 
 7 AM (11) Aug 06  73 (23) 29.91 (1013) N 14 
 6 AM (10) Aug 06 80 (27) 73 (23) 29.91 (1013) N 14 
 5 AM (9) Aug 06 78 (26) 73 (23) 29.91 (1013) N 13 
 4 AM (8) Aug 06 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.91 (1013) N 8 
 3 AM (7) Aug 06 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.91 (1013) N 12 
 2 AM (6) Aug 06 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.88 (1012) NNW 7 
 1 AM (5) Aug 06 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.91 (1013) WNW 9 
 Midnight (4) Aug 06 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.91 (1013) N 7 
 11 PM (3) Aug 05 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.91 (1013) NNW 5 
 10 PM (2) Aug 05 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.91 (1013) NNW 5 
 9 PM (1) Aug 05 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) N 2


http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/GVAC.html

[HURAKAN]

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 060941
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
541 AM AST WED AUG 6 2008

THE GFS HINTS AT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MID WEEK NEXT WEEK...BUT IT IS
STILL TOO FAR OUT TO SAY WHETHER IT HAS MUCH CHANCE OF DEVELOPING
INTO A TROPICAL STORM.

Will be this wave?

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

Observations from Cape Verde islands show NNW to North winds.I dont know if that means anything but its somewhat interesting.

Code: Select all

Latest 8 AM (12) Aug 06 82 (28) 73 (23) 29.91 (1013) NNW 15 
 7 AM (11) Aug 06  73 (23) 29.91 (1013) N 14 
 6 AM (10) Aug 06 80 (27) 73 (23) 29.91 (1013) N 14 
 5 AM (9) Aug 06 78 (26) 73 (23) 29.91 (1013) N 13 
 4 AM (8) Aug 06 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.91 (1013) N 8 
 3 AM (7) Aug 06 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.91 (1013) N 12 
 2 AM (6) Aug 06 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.88 (1012) NNW 7 
 1 AM (5) Aug 06 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.91 (1013) WNW 9 
 Midnight (4) Aug 06 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.91 (1013) N 7 
 11 PM (3) Aug 05 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.91 (1013) NNW 5 
 10 PM (2) Aug 05 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.91 (1013) NNW 5 
 9 PM (1) Aug 05 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) N 2


http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/GVAC.html

Cape Verde is pretty NW of this system though.

[HURAKAN]

[ConvergenceZone]

That SAL is quite the monster(or blessing), it seems like it's stretching even further across the Atlantic now. I just think that between the SAL and the dry air, we are going to be in a LULL for awhile, but we do need it...Perhaps in a couple of weeks or late August to early September, conditions may begin to improve...

[HURAKAN]

[SapphireSea]

Is that really the SAL, or perhaps just normal dry air due to cooler than normal SSTs near cape verde and the northern central Atlantic. It's hard for me to tell sometimes where the SAL really is. This wave is pretty impressive, but we've seen good looking waves like this get mauled, but unlike the others this one has less shear in the way and more convergence, so it could indeed become a player in the short term, by that I mean about 96 hours, once it gets west of 40W without significant dev, i'd say its chances are pretty slim.

[O Town]

Another great looking wave, lets see how long this one lasts.

[vacanechaser]

Is that really the SAL, or perhaps just normal dry air due to cooler than normal SSTs near cape verde and the northern central Atlantic. It's hard for me to tell sometimes where the SAL really is. This wave is pretty impressive, but we've seen good looking waves like this get mauled, but unlike the others this one has less shear in the way and more convergence, so it could indeed become a player in the short term, by that I mean about 96 hours, once it gets west of 40W without significant dev, i'd say its chances are pretty slim.

very true... with the ridge near 1019mb near the azores and the ridge in the central atlantic near 1021mb, i doubt a lot of that is really sal.. just my guess.. it looks like it could be just dry air... not african dust and sand.. we have seen systems erode the dry air and or sal as they move along and develop, so it is not written off just yet.. nor is it writen in stone that this will develop either... however, the mjo pulse seems to be back on its way around which would make things "favorable" not to mention- - - - its now august... it was mentioned before in a post above that they have not developed earlier this season out there... and thats ture... but that is because we do not see development off africa until august anyway... the conditions just are not favorable for many reasons... so at least right now, it this has a shot.. maybe a little better than the past waves just because we are now appraoching mid month..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Dean4Storms]

It does look fairly impressive at this point but there is an over abundance of dry air out there so I suspect it will struggle. Something to watch anyway.

[HURAKAN]

[Scorpion]

This wave looks really nice. SAL looks to be letting up a bit, so I would give this a better chance of development than the previous waves.

[HURAKAN]

[catastrophic]

looks good now but theres som sal coming down

[Weatherfreak14]

Looks really nice but i dont think this is what the models are hinting at in the longe range... I think it still will be another week before we see things start to perk up a bit.

[cheezyWXguy]

looks good now but theres som sal coming down

Thats very weak. Look at the scale. yellows and oranges are the weakest

[americanrebel]

When will this be called 93L?