GUSTAV will probably go to Florida, Not Louisiana

[peteywheatstraw]

There's an upper level trough digging down from TX to the Yucatan, recurving sharply into N FL...which will be around thru the weekend..If Gustav builds vertically to around 40k ft high (and it is looking healthy) this trough will likely block Gustav from going too far NW and act as a steering mechanism to pull it up towards Apalachicola..the NW part of the storm is already showing signs of shear indicating its interaction with this trough. If Gustav remains weak it may go 'under' the trough but I'm thinking it may get influenced by the trough..

[lonelymike]

There's an upper level trough digging down from TX to the Yucatan, recurving sharply into N FL...which will be around thru the weekend..If Gustav builds vertically to around 40k ft high (and it is looking healthy) this trough will likely block Gustav from going too far NW and act as a steering mechanism to pull it up towards Apalachicola..the NW part of the storm is already showing signs of shear indicating its interaction with this trough. If Gustav remains weak it may go 'under' the trough but I'm thinking it may get influenced by the trough..

[snowflake]

There's an upper level trough digging down from TX to the Yucatan, recurving sharply into N FL...which will be around thru the weekend..If Gustav builds vertically to around 40k ft high (and it is looking healthy) this trough will likely block Gustav from going too far NW and act as a steering mechanism to pull it up towards Apalachicola..the NW part of the storm is already showing signs of shear indicating its interaction with this trough. If Gustav remains weak it may go 'under' the trough but I'm thinking it may get influenced by the trough..

[Category 5]

At least he makes the effort to make up facts, give him a break.

[RL3AO]

The only problem with your theory is that the trough is only in the upper levels (above 300mb). Below that, the winds are from the east as shown by the dropsondes from the G-IV flight today.

[peteywheatstraw]

That's why I said that this might happen if the storm gets vertically stacked - then the upper winds could actually steer it or influence its direction.

[F. Prefect]

That's why I said that this might happen if the storm gets vertically stacked - then the upper winds could actually steer it or influence its direction.

Well, huricanes are know for their ability to foil forecasters, but if history is of any value at all, such a radical move has a probability of near 0. But you have a right to your opinions and theories. However, I'm personally far more concerned with a landfall just to the west of New Orleans.

F. Prefect

[Category 5]

I don't think we can rule out the Panhandle just yet, but we can be close to doing so IMO.

[Patrick99]

Doubtful, but hey, we are seeing outer squalls from Gustav right now! Quite a squall-y day here in S. FL and the Keys.