2008 is a bust!

[Category 5]

Ya know, I loved how a few people not too long ago (July and even into August), were calling this season "Boring" or "A Bust". I hate to jump on historical bandwagons before the official peak, but I think this is notable.

Through September 4th

2005: 13/6/3 (Final total 28/15/7)
1933: 12/5/3 (Final total 21/10/5)*
1995: 12/6/2 (Final total 19/11/5)
2008: 10/5/3 (Final total ??/?/?)
1969: 6/4/3 (Final total 18/12/5)


This is why we don't call a season a bust, especially during early parts of the season. The consequences are that everybody who did now looks ridiculous, now that we are on pace to have one of the most active years on record, and by the way, the official peak is still next week. By the way, before you mention that 10 storms is the average for a season, I believe that number is actually higher due to storms we may have missed before satellites, this is also why I put as asterisk on 1933.

I repeat, ON PACE. Doesn't mean it will happen, doesn't mean it won't.

Heck, we could have no more named storms after Josephine and it still wouldn't be a bust. No season is ever a bust because if it doesn't live up to expectations, there's always a reason. That's whats so cool about weather. No matter how rare, no matter how strange, there's always an explanation in the end.

Now, for those who DID call 2008 a bust, please accept this lovely gift.

[Frank2]

You can't blame those of us who live in the tropics to hope and pray for a quiet season - I think most reasonable folks here know that while we may give explanations for a possible slow season, the reality is that we all know that it will likely not be one, but, we hope, anyway, since sincere hope is always a good thing, and, is pleasing to God...

Perhaps if we all lived in New Jersey we'd be "rooting" for a busy season, too, but, after you've seen what a Cat 5 can do (as I did after Andrew), you start praying for the lesser option - I've heard others here voice the same opinion who've suffered through a major hurricane - and it's aftermath, which is often the most painful part...

What you mention is similar to those who talk about wars but have never fought in one, so, pardon me if I only stick to listening to the crows call for each other at sunrise - in light winds...

Frank

[windycity]

Well put, frank.

[Ptarmigan]

2008 is very impressive so far. Even moreso than 2004!

[AJC3]

You can't blame those of us who live in the tropics to hope and pray for a quiet season - I think most reasonable folks here know that while we may give explanations for a possible slow season, the reality is that we all know that it will likely not be one, but, we hope, anyway, since sincere hope is always a good thing, and, is pleasing to God...

Perhaps if we all lived in New Jersey we'd be "rooting" for a busy season, too, but, after you've seen what a Cat 5 can do (as I did after Andrew), you start praying for the lesser option - I've heard others here voice the same opinion who've suffered through a major hurricane - and it's aftermath, which is often the most painful part...

What you mention is similar to those who talk about wars but have never fought in one, so, pardon me if I only stick to listening to the crows call for each other at sunrise - in light winds...

Frank

Come on, Frank. While you're points are all valid, you're arguing against a point that was never attempted to be made - a classic strawman argument.

In no way did Cat 5 argue against anyone who wished for a quiet or "bust" season, only those who proclaimed the season "boring" or a "bust" from the perspective of those that are in here because they are armchair T.C. enthusiasts and like to track the tropics - a perspective which accounts for almost everyone in here. And nowhere did Cat 5 come across as rooting for a busy season, which you, Frank, inferred by invoking the state he lives in.

This is really the same old "Maybe you'll stop being so excited about T.C.'s once you've been severely impacted by one" argument that's been tossed around on the forum about eleventy billion times. Frank, do you honestly believe that greater than about 1% of people on this forum old enough to own property root for death and destruction? Of course not, and I think it's a pretty disingenuous argument to assume so.

It's simply the human condition to become fascinated, excited and awed by the fact that mom nature can manage to do some pretty spectacular things that mankind is powerless to control. In fact, I wrote very similar words on my college application back in the mid 80s when I was trying to get into the Cornell Meteorology program.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

2008 is very impressive so far. Even moreso than 2004!

You have got to be kidding me??? 2004 had Ivan that had 70+ ace, one of the highest aces for any one storm in history. It had Charley 14 billion dollars, Frances, Jeanne all hit Florida. Ivan was one of the longest lived cat5s in "recorded" history in the Atlantic. 2004 was near the top for ace my friend. This year will have to do a whole lot better to even kiss 2004 dirty old socks.

2003 this season maybe able to come close if not beat at the pace it is at. We will see.

[KWT]

I agree Matt this season isn't quite as extreme as 2004 was, that and 2005 was clearly a class above the rest but I think when all said and done this season is going to beat 2003 in terms of landfalling systems...

Indeed 2008 has already double the landfalls of 2003 and thats without Ike which will add another 2, maybe 3...

2008 for the caribbean was the 2004 for Florida...

[Category 5]

You can't blame those of us who live in the tropics to hope and pray for a quiet season - I think most reasonable folks here know that while we may give explanations for a possible slow season, the reality is that we all know that it will likely not be one, but, we hope, anyway, since sincere hope is always a good thing, and, is pleasing to God...

Perhaps if we all lived in New Jersey we'd be "rooting" for a busy season, too, but, after you've seen what a Cat 5 can do (as I did after Andrew), you start praying for the lesser option - I've heard others here voice the same opinion who've suffered through a major hurricane - and it's aftermath, which is often the most painful part...

What you mention is similar to those who talk about wars but have never fought in one, so, pardon me if I only stick to listening to the crows call for each other at sunrise - in light winds...

Frank

Why don't you try reading my post again before calling me out.

I'm one of the first people who jumps on those -removed- major storms. I was calling those out who were screaming boring bust, not wishing for a quiet season.

Get it? Got it? Good.

[Ptarmigan]

You have got to be kidding me??? 2004 had Ivan that had 70+ ace, one of the highest aces for any one storm in history. It had Charley 14 billion dollars, Frances, Jeanne all hit Florida. Ivan was one of the longest lived cat5s in "recorded" history in the Atlantic. 2004 was near the top for ace my friend. This year will have to do a whole lot better to even kiss 2004 dirty old socks.

2003 this season maybe able to come close if not beat at the pace it is at. We will see.

2004 had many long lived and strong hurricanes and four of them affected Florida. 2004 was also a late starter.

[Jimsot]

A perfect season? Ten storms to watch, all majors, all fishes. Lots of SAL, low SST's, well you get the idea.

[Category 5]

A perfect season? Ten storms to watch, all majors, all fishes. Lots of SAL, low SST's, well you get the idea.

I'd pay money for that every year.