GOM, homebrew?

[lrak]

I wake up this afternoon (long night) and see low clouds moving fast down the coast and a brisk Northerly wind but with high pressure. The satellite loops show a broad circulation in the GOM and I was hoping a thread was already started to explain whats up? Anyone want to help out?

What tropical system are the Brownsville Mets talking about?

.MARINE...LIGHT TO MODERATE NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK.
SEAS CURRENTLY RUNNING 2 TO 3 FEET WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB IN RESPONSE
TO TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS LOW PRESSURE STRUGGLES TO DEVELOP
MID WEEK IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. BRIEF SCA CRITERIA COULD RESULT.
GFS INDICATING COPIOUS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE PERIOD. FIRST SLUG ARRIVING MONDAY FROM
TROPICAL SYSTEM ON THE MEXICAN WEST COAST OVERLAPPING BROAD AREA OF
LIFT COULD RESULT IN ENHANCED SHOWERS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS OVER THE
MARINE WATERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?sit ... glossary=1

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[Weatherfreak000]

Very interesting indeed...seems about stalled. Have to wait and see if anything develops out of this it's about that time of the year for a quick GOM TS.

[KatDaddy]

If anything else forms tropically in the GOM this season it will be time for W FLA to step up and take a hit. TX, LA, MS, AL are done with the hurricane season. I am ready for another 25 year break before I deal with another large hurricane.

[caneman]

For the record KatDaddy. West FLorida was hit by Fay.

[KatDaddy]

In the blur of the last week I had overlooked that fact. Its been quite a hurricane season for the GOM and I am fairly certain the GOM is not done. Joe B is already hyping the S GOM next week.

[SWLASTORMTRACKER]

In the blur of the last week I had overlooked that fact. Its been quite a hurricane season for the GOM and I am fairly certain the GOM is not done. Joe B is already hyping the S GOM next week.

Did he say where he thinks it might head if indeed something forms?

[catastrophic]

the area in the central gom looks intresting but i also noticed the area in the boc



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rgb.html iffyou look at thas loop it looks like there acirculation in the area in the boc

[lrak]

the area in the central gom looks intresting but i also noticed the area in the boc



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rgb.html iffyou look at thas loop it looks like there acirculation in the area in the boc

sure looks like a spin to me.

So something down there will move NE towards Florida?

[HURAKAN]

I don't see any spin and conditions are not favorable for development. This convection is likely shear-induced.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

On the infrared loops the area in the central gulf is
moving rapidly towards Florida- click on fronts and you
will see that the stationary front over central florida
is pulling this large area of convection with upper
level cyclonic turning towards Florida.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/GOES/EAST/gmex/loop-avn.html

The leading edge of the convective complex
should reach Florida within 24 hours.

I don't expect tropical development, but there appears to be an area
of low pressure over the central GOM, with east flow of clouds to the north, west
flow of clouds to the south- However, these appear to be UPPER LEVEL Winds, so
it looks like some sort of mid to upper level Low with instability fueling convection.

This should bring some heavy rain squalls to Florida in the next 24 hours. Nothing
serious, just areas of thunderstorms with strong gusty winds in the heavier
cells.

[lrak]

I don't see any spin and conditions are not favorable for development. This convection is likely shear-induced.

I respectfully disagree.

20.5n 96.0w is where I see an illusion.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

As a comfort for Texas/Louisiana/Mississippi residents impacted by
Ike/Gustav, it appears that the stationary front over florida
should protect you from any system that may form over the gulf.
The stationary front is drawing the convective moisture towards
florida:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/GOES/EAST/gmex/loop-avn.html

So it will water my lawn before the dry season sets in. And the stationary
front should protect the West/Central gulf coasts from any bad weather.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Now as for the bay of campeche, looks like an area of cyclonic turning,
that may be something to watch. I don't know where it would go, it
is too early to tell; is there another trough forecasted to reach the
gulf later this week?

[HURAKAN]

There is nothing at the surface in the GOM.

[HURAKAN]

I respectfully disagree.

20.5n 96.0w is where I see an illusion.

I thought the area being discussed was the system in the central GOM. The area in the BOC looks interesting but close to land.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Thank you Hurakan! It must then be a mid or upper level
disturbance, perhaps with cold air aloft that is maintaining
the convection over the Gulf. It is tough to find any upper
level low, however, and it might just be an area of heavy rain working eastward.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I respectfully disagree.

20.5n 96.0w is where I see an illusion.

I thought the area being discussed was the system in the central GOM. The area in the BOC looks interesting but close to land.

I think both areas sort of got sucked into the thread.
The central one is shooting towards FL, but the BOC area I don't know where it might
go...

[lrak]

I respectfully disagree.

20.5n 96.0w is where I see an illusion.

I thought the area being discussed was the system in the central GOM. The area in the BOC looks interesting but close to land.

I should of typed the coordinates in the beginning. My apologies, you guys are under the gun and good luck out there I hope that 93L is a big fish.

[captain east]

When do you think this will reach Florida, I wanna know if it's gonna be a rainy day tomorrow..

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I respectfully disagree.

20.5n 96.0w is where I see an illusion.

I thought the area being discussed was the system in the central GOM. The area in the BOC looks interesting but close to land.

I should of typed the coordinates in the beginning. My apologizes, you guys are under the gun and good luck out there.

No worries- it is a GOM thread so both areas can be discussed. Irak I think impacts of the BOC area
will depend on whether or not any troughs near Texas in the next few days. And I will get some rain
tomorrow.