What area will be under 1st hurricane watch in '09?

[jinftl]

Anyone hazard to make an educated (or uneducated) guess...what will be the area that goes under the first hurricane watch this season...it is almost inevitable that at least some region of the coast will be threatened by a system that could be a hurricane at its approach...again, this is a hurricane watch (not hurricane warning or tropical storm watch/warning).

Possibilities include:
-some portion of the Leeward or Windward Islands (need to get more specific..i.e., St. Maarten, British & U.S V.I.)
-some portion of Mexican coast or Central American coast (i.e., La Pesca to Veracruz)
-if in U.S., specific break points of the watch...the 2 endpoints (i.e., Jupiter Inlet to Florida City, Baffin Bay to Morgan City)

List of NHC Breakpoints below...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/breakpoints_table.shtml


My guess: Cabo Catoche, Mexico (on Yucatan) to Belize City, Belize

[BigA]

I'm going to take the easy out and say Bermuda.

As for the US, from the Florida-Alabama border to the mouth of the Suwanee River. It will be issued for a tropical storm that the NHC thinks might become a hurricane but does not because of shear (total guess).

[vbhoutex]

Interesting question. Really no scientific way to determine, so it is shear(pun intended)guesswork. First Hurricane Watch of the season will be for Puerto Rico. Sorry Luis.

[cycloneye]

First Hurricane Watch of the season will be for Puerto Rico. Sorry Luis.

Dont do this to me.

Unscientific of course,first HW in Brownsville / Corpus Christi area.

[Ed Mahmoud]

WAG-

Turks and Caicos.

[jinftl]

definitely didn't mean to 'curse' any area with this question...just interested in getting an idea of what folks are thinking in terms of areas of threat based on 1) climatology, 2) affinity (or lack thereof...lol) for an area, 3) guessing, 4) way to pass the time until things heat up. hope the topic and responses don't offend...but it is definitely interesting to see people's thoughts.

remember...asked the area to go under the first hurricane watch...not warning...so hopefully that is a bit less menacing

maybe i should have said the azores?

[WeatherLovingDoc]

It seems there has been an unusual amount of eastern Atlantic activity since May: weird lows coming almost out of no where, one very high and large in the upper Atlantic, and one off the Carolina coast. So I'll go with that: Atlantic off the Carolina's: not on anything more than that we've seen some action there already. I know, this defies likelihood based on shear, SAL, etc.

[CrazyC83]

I'll make a shrewd guess: the coast of southeastern Newfoundland - a quick recurving hurricane that is slow to become extratropical.

[boca]

:crazyeyes:

First Hurricane Watch of the season will be for Puerto Rico. Sorry Luis.

Dont do this to me.

Unscientific of course,first HW in Brownsville / Corpus Christi area.

Sorry Luis its not Texas its gonna be you in Puerto Rico would you prefer a hit from the south or the ESE like George.Here in Florida we had are hits its your turn. Take it and get over with it, I promise it will only hurt for a second.

[senorpepr]

If I had to go off of frequency (since 1995), I'd go with Saba and St. Eustatius. However, there really wasn't a clear winner looking back through 1995. However, if I was to guess a time of day... it would be 1500Z.

First Hurricane Watches
1995 – Hurricane Erin – 31 Jul / 1500Z – Venice, FL, to Everglades City, FL, and Lake Okeechobee.
1996 – Hurricane Bertha – 06 Jul / 1500Z – Antigua, Barbuda, Nevis, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Anguilla, Saba, St. Eustatius, Dominica, and Dutch St. Maarten.
1997 – Hurricane Danny – 17 Jul / 1500Z – Cameron, LA, to Orange Beach, AL.
1998 – Hurricane Bonnie – 21 Aug / 1500Z – Turk and Caicos and SE Bahamas.
1999 – Hurricane Bret – 20 Aug / 1500Z – La Pesca, MEX, to Veracruz, MEX.
2000 – Hurricane Debby – 20 Aug / 2100Z – St. Maarten, Saba, and St. Eustatius.
2001 – Tropical Storm Chantal – 17 Aug / 2100Z – Jamaica.
2002 – Tropical Storm Fay – 06 Sep / 1500Z – Port O’Connor, TX, to High Island, TX.
2003 – Tropical Storm Bill – 30 Jun / 0300Z – Intercoastal City, LA, to Morgan City, LA.
2004 – Hurricane Charley – 11 Aug / 0300Z – Jamaica.
2005 – Tropical Storm Arlene – 10 Jun / 1500Z – Pearl River, LA, to Panama City, FL.
2006 – Tropical Storm Chris – 02 Aug / 1500Z – Turks and Caicos and SE Bahamas.
2007 – Hurricane Dean – 16 Aug / 0300Z – St. Lucia, Martinique, Guadeloupe, Saba, and St. Eustatius.
2008 – Hurricane Bertha – 14 July / 1900Z – Bermuda.

[jinftl]

This is great info....thanks for providing....when you look at the data, you can definitely get the sense that the eastern Caribbean and the Western Gulf are where the first watches take place.....noteable absence, my own back yard of south florida....which makes sense since the bahamas are to our east, cuba to our south....chances are any approaching storm would merit watches for one of those areas first. The East Coast of the U.S. is not represented either...this dats fits well with early season climatology.

If I had to go off of frequency (since 1995), I'd go with Saba and St. Eustatius.  However, there really wasn't a clear winner looking back through 1995.  However, if I was to guess a time of day... it would be 1500Z.First Hurricane Watches1995 – Hurricane Erin – 31 Jul / 1500Z – Venice, FL, to Everglades City, FL, and Lake Okeechobee.1996 – Hurricane Bertha – 06 Jul / 1500Z – Antigua, Barbuda, Nevis, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Anguilla, Saba, St. Eustatius, Dominica, and Dutch St. Maarten.1997 – Hurricane Danny – 17 Jul / 1500Z – Cameron, LA, to Orange Beach, AL.1998 – Hurricane Bonnie – 21 Aug / 1500Z – Turk and Caicos and SE Bahamas.1999 – Hurricane Bret – 20 Aug / 1500Z – La Pesca, MEX, to Veracruz, MEX.2000 – Hurricane Debby – 20 Aug / 2100Z – St. Maarten, Saba, and St. Eustatius.2001 – Tropical Storm Chantal – 17 Aug / 2100Z – Jamaica.2002 – Tropical Storm Fay – 06 Sep / 1500Z – Port O’Connor, TX, to High Island, TX.2003 – Tropical Storm Bill – 30 Jun / 0300Z – Intercoastal City, LA, to Morgan City, LA.2004 – Hurricane Charley – 11 Aug / 0300Z – Jamaica.2005 – Tropical Storm Arlene – 10 Jun / 1500Z – Pearl River, LA, to Panama City, FL.2006 – Tropical Storm Chris – 02 Aug / 1500Z – Turks and Caicos and SE Bahamas.2007 – Hurricane Dean – 16 Aug / 0300Z – St. Lucia, Martinique, Guadeloupe, Saba, and St. Eustatius.2008 – Hurricane Bertha – 14 July / 1900Z – Bermuda.

[hurricanedude]

Altamaha sound, Ga to the NC/VA border

[OuterBanker]

Denver (it would give purpose to the Tropical Meteorology Project wouldn't it)?

[AdamFirst]

I have a hunch...North Carolina outer banks.

[wx247]

I am going with Jamaica.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Long Island/Cap Cod area; by a mid-August hurricane a la Bob in 1991.

[Sambucol]

Texas

[tailgater]

I'm going with Belize city north to Cozmel. I think the 3 barrel high will hold till late Aug.

[vbhoutex]

Texas

That is several hundred miles of coastline. Can you cut it down some?

-if in U.S., specific break points of the watch...the 2 endpoints (i.e., Jupiter Inlet to Florida City, Baffin Bay to Morgan City)

List of NHC Breakpoints below...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/breakpoints_table.shtml

[WeatherLovingDoc]

Wow, breakpoints off the Carolinas. Sorry I missed this in prior post. Hmmm.

Edisto Beach SC US 32.49 -80.32
Cape Hatteras NC US 35.22 -75.53