Ex 97L

[Blown Away]

Let's start a new topic for 97L. I think it's going to make a comeback. A few more hours and the dry air won't be much of an issue. Small compact area but still appears to have a nice cyclonic spin.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

[Blown Away]

More convection by the hour.

[Sanibel]

The Zone of Tropical Death should finish it off considering that the basin is still fairly hostile.


Impressive spin for such a small, sparse wave. Sometimes the spin survives and ignites further west.

[Aric Dunn]

lol.. i was sitting in the other thread for a while never knew someone started another thread.. lol

yeah it looks like its coming back, and with a little more vigor than anything previous .. we have not seen this much convection since it came off africa.

[Aric Dunn]

look at that thing goooo..... lol

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[Blown Away]

Got to love the tropics, compared to now 97L looked like crap most of yesterday and the wave near the islands looked like it deserved the invest tag. Ex 97L has definitely taken the center stage now.

[Aric Dunn]

Got to love the tropics, compared to now 97L looked like crap most of yesterday and the wave near the islands looked like it deserved the invest tag. Ex 97L has definitely taken the center stage now.

yeah for sure .. i was just looking at the shortwave i am seeing some much improved inflow on the SE side.. tonight going to be interesting again could be waking up to code orange.. lol

[Aric Dunn]

according the TPW

not only is the dry air not a problem anymore really, its also show a lot more rotation..

[Blown Away]

Got to love the tropics, compared to now 97L looked like crap most of yesterday and the wave near the islands looked like it deserved the invest tag. Ex 97L has definitely taken the center stage now.

yeah for sure .. i was just looking at the shortwave i am seeing some much improved inflow on the SE side.. tonight going to be interesting again could be waking up to code orange.. lol

What is the lat/long where you see that SE inflow. I want to make sure I'm seeing the same thing.

[Blown Away]

It's pretty clear ex 97L won't clear the islands to the N if it develops.

[Aric Dunn]

12n 46w roughly lol ..

you will have to zoom in some but you can see the cloud line beginning to take shape, with more curvature to them. they are the light milky color clouds

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-ir2.html

its really hard to see but circled the area i see
and the area where the center is, well my best track per se.. bot saying there is closed low at the surface but the average center of the rotation .

[Aric Dunn]

also i mentioned earlier that the low level convergence should increase tonight as it approached the area .. well the latest cimss has a come quite a bit..

[Blown Away]

Thanks for the circles, I see what you are seeing and it appears the low level clouds are rotating in. This thing is blowing up by the minute. I might hang out for the 2am update. Possible orange, I think they will play it safe and keep the yellow.

[Aric Dunn]

Thanks for the circles, I see what you are seeing and it appears the low level clouds are rotating in. This thing is blowing up by the minute. I might hang out for the 2am update. Possible orange, I think they will play it safe and keep the yellow.

yeah dont think they would do it tonight ..
waiting till visible images come in and the convection persists would be a good idea.

[Ed Mahmoud]

E. Caribbean system per GFS is already past it, into SW shear, but a wave a day or two behind could find a nice upper level environment if it were North of Hispaniola.

[Blown Away]

I think the E Caribbean wave is toast and I don't think ex 97L will make it N of Hispanola.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'd think it needs to get North of the islands, or just South of the islands while missing the Greater Antilles. 20 to 30 knot low level flow will whip anything near South America along quickly, bad for shear and bad for low level convergence.

[Blown Away]

Since it's so disorganized it's hard to know which direction it's going but it looks due W or just S of due W. When the models were running most brought 97L very close to Hispanola so maybe the steering will be more WNW shortly. This baby sure is building convection rapidly, I love it.

[Aric Dunn]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 190533
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. WHILE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT
900 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS INCREASED A LITTLE THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[tailgater]

Since it's so disorganized it's hard to know which direction it's going but it looks due W or just S of due W. When the models were running most brought 97L very close to Hispanola so maybe the steering will be more WNW shortly. This baby sure is building convection rapidly, I love it.

Looks like it will go pretty much due west and that probably is a mid level circulation that has been with with it since coming off AFR.