Wave approachjng the islands late this weekend

[tailgater]

Here's the next wave that could give us something to watch over weekend.
Quick scat at 47W 10 N
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... Bds100.png
IR loop
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html
Looks to be attached to the ITZC right now and may just pile into S.A. WRF shows a little something but that might be wave behind this one.The NHC doesn't even show a wave out there so probably nothing, but what hey I'm babysitting all weekend.

[Ed Mahmoud]

It is slow, isn't it.


Bahamas blob is prettier.

Although the clouds are warming significantly.

[cycloneye]

Nothing that is atractive there,only ITCZ stuff.But lets see if it detaches itself from the belt.

[Sanibel]

I just spotted that one too. So far in 2009 waves have looked like they had something but didn't. This one bears watching.

[wxman57]

Nothing here to worry about. It'll be moving into northern South America for the most part. There's not even any mid-level rotation with this wave. I doubt that the convection will be very significant tomorrow.

[Sanibel]

Looked like it was moving slowly and therefore possibly organizing. But, once again, nothing to it.

[boca]

Looked like it was moving slowly and therefore possibly organizing. But, once again, nothing to it.

At this point in the game I'll look at waves since thats about all we have at this point. Yawn.

[Sanibel]

Cycloneye's MJO peak in August should coincide with finally-arriving favorability.

[floridasun78]

that wave se of leedward look like it have weak spin to it the leedward islands could get some stormy weather from it

[gatorcane]

Its going to be going through about 20-30K of shear over the next couple of days, but should it emerge with convection activity beyond that not moving inland over South America, shear is quite low through the Caribbean (unlike just a week ago when 97L could not survive it) and it will be moving into an area of more favorable upper-level winds. However no models are developing this area so far. I inserted the CIMSS shear tendency diagram below, showing how upper-level winds are decreasing across most of the Caribbean.

Because of the favorable upper-level environment it appears to be headed for, I think its something to watch even though it has a low chance of development at this time.