It's over so what killed the 2009 season

[lonelymike]

Now that the 2009 season is on life support and Bones is fixing to pull the plug, what is the biggest contributing factor in this season's lack of significant action in your opinion?

[wxman57]

I think it was a combination of two things - wind shear and sinking air. Take a look at satellite shots of most of this year's storms. They were all very sheared. The tropical storms lasted only briefly, and mostly with exposed LLCs. Early on, the shear was low-level easterly winds produced by a strong Bermuda High. Easterly 850mb winds across the Caribbean were frequently 35-45 kts. Any tropical wave moving into that kind of shear was instantly ripped apart. Later, the Bermuda High weakened and mid to upper-level shear took over.

Though the NW Caribbean and Gulf were warmer than 2005, nothing was able to develop there. Just goes to show you that it takes more than warm water to produce a hurricane.

[Sanibel]

Ditto what WX57 said.


If half of the invests that spun up developed we would have had some year. 2009 was a good example of showing the tropical pulses are out there in the same frequency as active years only an unfavorable environment prohibits them from developing.

[Ptarmigan]

WxMan57 nailed it. I know the Bermuda High is related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Also, we had an El Nino.

[cycloneye]

El Nino was not strong,but weak to moderate during the season.It played as a factor but I think other things played a roll,such as dry air,flat lined ITCZ,not strong MJO bursts.

[Macrocane]

I agree with cycloneye. The weak MJO signal during the season was one of the factors that made this season rather inactive. Last year MJO was strong we had enhanced and supressed phases during the entire season Arthur, Dolly, Gustav-Hanna-Ike-Josephine, Nana-Omar-Sixteen and Paloma developed during enhanced phases. During this season it didn't play any major role, Bill and Fred were very intense because they were in the right place at the right time. By the way, what was the cause of the dry and sinking air this season?

edit: some typos fixed

[lonelymike]

So Macro you're saying that if there had been a stronger MJO storms could have developed in spite of the shear?

[Macrocane]

So Macro you're saying that if there had been a stronger MJO storms could have developed in spite of the shear?

Yes, MJO tends to decrease shear and enhance convection both factors would have helped to have more storms in the main development region or at least the ones that we had this season wouldn't have been that sheared and short-lived. By the way I'm not saying that we would have had another 2008, wind shear was strong so MJO perhaps would have decreased shear to a moderate strength and we would have seen more hurricanes and a few more TS.

[Sanibel]

You're probably dealing with chicken or the egg syndrome where the weak MJO is a symptom of the overall negative atmosphere. My guess is a strong MJO can't exist in prevailing dry subsidence.

[Macrocane]

You're probably dealing with chicken or the egg syndrome where the weak MJO is a symptom of the overall negative atmosphere. My guess is a strong MJO can't exist in prevailing dry subsidence.

Well MJO is something not completely understood. Remember that it is a pattern that propagates from the Indian Ocean to the Pacific and finally to the Atlantic. It has been weak in all the oceans and even weaker in the Atlantic. It has been observed that MJO is more active during La Niña years and several months before an El Niño all of that is consistent with what we've seen since last year. You said that MJO can't exist within the Atlantic environment but Pacific was much better and MJO has had a weak signal, the tropical cyclone activity on the Pacific may be more related to El Niño and other multidecadal oscillations than with MJO. I think that we can't give a definitive conclusion of what happened this year and it would be such an interesting topic of investigation.

[aerology]

You're probably dealing with chicken or the egg syndrome where the weak MJO is a symptom of the overall negative atmosphere. My guess is a strong MJO can't exist in prevailing dry subsidence.

Well MJO is something not completely understood. Remember that it is a pattern that propagates from the Indian Ocean to the Pacific and finally to the Atlantic. It has been weak in all the oceans and even weaker in the Atlantic. It has been observed that MJO is more active during La Niña years and several months before an El Niño all of that is consistent with what we've seen since last year. You said that MJO can't exist within the Atlantic environment but Pacific was much better and MJO has had a weak signal, the tropical cyclone activity on the Pacific may be more related to El Niño and other multidecadal oscillations than with MJO. I think that we can't give a definitive conclusion of what happened this year and it would be such an interesting topic of investigation.

I would say it is because the declinational angle on the Moon was at it's 18.6 year peak in 2005, and the increased hurricane activity was due to the turbulence introduced into the atmosphere, as the Mn declinational tide started to reverse.

There is a magnetic field that surrounds the sun, and magnetic fields, that are invested in the body of the Galaxy. These large scale standing fields, interact to produce fluctuations in the strength of the fields felt upon the Earth as it moves in it's orbit.

The poles of the Earth are tilted to the axis of the solar system ~23 ½ degrees, giving us the changing seasons. The sun on the other hand is different it's axis of rotation is vertical, but the magnet poles are tilted ~12 degrees, so as it rotates on an average of 27.325 day period, the polarity of the magnetic fields felt via the solar wind, shifts from the result of the orientation determined by the position of the rotating magnetic poles of the sun.

The inner core of the moon has frozen, and the outer core of the Earth is still molten, and a concentration of the magnetically permeable materials that make up the earth. These pulses of alternating North then South magnetic field shifts has been going on since before the Earth condensed into a planet and then was later struck by a Mars sized object (so the current theory goes), that splashed off most of the crust. Most returned to the Earth, some was lost into interplanetary space, and some condensed into the moon. Somewhere in the process the center of mass of the moon gravitated toward the surface that faces the Earth, before it froze, causing that denser side to always face the Earth.

It is not the center of mass of the Earth that scribes the orbital path of the Earth about the sun but the center of mass of the composite Earth / moon barycenter that lies about 1,200 kilometers off of the center of mass of the Earth, always positioned between the center of the earth and the center of the Moon. So as the Moon rotates around the earth to create the lunar light phases, the center of mass of the earth goes from inside to out side, around the common barycenter. As the Moon moves North / South in it's declination, the center of mass of the earth goes the opposite direction to counter balance, around their common barycenter that scribes the smooth ellipse of the orbit around the sun. So really the Earth makes 13 loops like a strung out spring every year.

The magnetic impulses in the solar wind has driven the Moon / Earth into the declinational dance that creates the Lunar declinational tides in phase in the atmosphere, because of the pendulum type movement the Moon hangs at the extremes of declination almost three days with in a couple of degrees then makes a fast sweep across the equator at up to 7 to 9 degrees per day. At these culminations of declination movement the polarity of the solar wind peaks and reverses, causing a surge in the reversal of the ion flux generated as a result. Because of the combination of both peak of Meridian flow surge in the atmosphere, and reversal of ion charge gradient globally occurs at the same time like clock work most severe weather occurs at these times.

Because of the semi boundary conditions caused by mountain ranges, the Rockies, Andes, Urals, Alps, Himalayas, that resulted in topographical forcing into a four fold pattern of types of Jet stream patterns, I had to use not a 27.325 day period but a 109.3 day period to synchronize the lunar declinational patterns into the data to get clearer repeatability than the same data set filtered by Lunar phase alone.

There is a pattern of 6554 days where in the inner planets, Mars, Earth, Venus, and Mercury, make an even number of orbital revolutions, and return to almost the same relative position to the star field.

By adding 4 days to this period I get 6558 days the time it takes the Moon to have 240 declinational cycles of 27.325 days, so that by using 6558 days as a synchronization period I get the lunar Declination angle, lunar phase, perigee / apogee cycle, and the relative positions of the inner planets to align from the past three (6558 day) cycles well enough that the average of the temperatures, and the totals of the precipitations give a picture of the repeating pattern, from the last three to forecast the next almost 18 year long string of weather related events, with a better accuracy than the forecast available for three to five days from NOW from conventional NWS / NOAA sources.

So by looking at the periods of declinational movement and the four fold pattern of Rossby wave propagation, while maintaining the inner planet synchronization. I get all of these influences in sync to look almost the same, as the current conditions, even to periods of hail, and tornado production.

When the outer planets are added into the mix, they are out of phase in regard to the inner planet / Lunar patterns, and their influences are not in Sync with these background patterns. There are lines of magnetic force that connect each planet to the sun, and these revolve around with the planets naturally.

As the Earth's orbit takes it between these outer planets and the sun (at Synodic conjunctions), the increase in magnetic fields carried via the solar wind, (to effect this outer planet coupling) is felt upon the Earth's magnetosphere, and results in a temporary increase in the pole to equator charge gradient then a discharge back to ambient levels (about a two week long up then down cycle time), how this interferes or combines with the “usual lunar / inner planet patterns” is determined by whether it is in, or out of phase with the background patterns.

During normal charge cycles more moisture is driven into the atmosphere carrying positive Ions, along the ITCZ, and in discharge cycle phases waves of free electrons, and negative ions are sent down from the poles into the mid-latitudes. Charge cycles inhibit precipitation amounts and discharge cycles produce increased precipitation amounts along existing frontal boundaries, due to changes in residual ion charge differences between the air masses.

There is a seasonal increase in magnetic fields coupled from the center of out galaxy to the sun that peaks in mid June (summer solstice), and then decreases till winter solstice. As the magnetic charging cycle associated with this build up in Northern hemisphere Spring, it brings on a bias for surges of positive ionized air masses, that produces surges of tornadoes in phase with the lunar declinational culminations, and other severe weather, will also be enhanced by Synodic conjunctions with outer planets, by the same increases of positively charged ions. The closer the timing of the conjunction to a peak lunar culmination the sharper the spike of production, like cracking a whip.

During discharge phases from summer solstice through fall in general, tropical storms manifest as large scale discharge patterns to ring the moisture, heat, and excess ions out of the tropical air masses. Outer planets conjunctions at these times help to build moisture reserves in the atmosphere, during their ion charge contribution, and enhance storms to category 4 and 5 levels when in phase with their discharge phase influences.

If you look at the timing of the data base of past hurricanes in regard to outer planet heliocentric Synodic conjunctions, the relationship becomes obvious. Typhoon Lupit formed as the Moon was Maximum North, made the S bend as the moon crossed the equator headed South, and started to make it's big sweep to the North East at Maximum South Lunar declination. Due to being on the border area between the Eastern flow and the Tropical western flow, the turbulence of the daily changes coming of off Southern Asia, made for some pulsations in the movement, and made it hard for the models to predict.

By 2011 the apparent Solar and lunar declination will both be ~23 1/2 degrees and big sweeping waves will appear in the Rossby wave patterns, as the Solar and Lunar tides come into phase and reinforce each other, cohesive waves of tropical moisture with little shear will make for an active season for both Tornadoes in the spring (and typhoons in the Southern hemisphere), and an active season for hurricanes and typhoons in the Northern hemisphere post mid summer. The press will be full of stories of the return of the El Nino.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Frank2]

For one thing, the ongoing high-level shear of El Nino, though for certain many prayed for another quiet hurricane season in this part of the world, though unfortunately it has been a hard season in the Western Pacific, that's for sure...

And, can you imagine what gasoline prices would have been (almost $2.90 in this area as of today), if we had had 2 or 3 major hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico over the past few months?

When a good thing comes, be thankful for it...

Have a good off-season,

Frank

[LarryWx]

I agree with cycloneye. By the what was the cause of the dry and sinking air this season?

IMHO, the El Nino, itself. Past research I've read has indicated that both shear and above normal SAL/dry air work together to make the avg. El Nino season weaker than average. I distinctly remember 2006, the last El Nino, also having above average SAL/dry air.

[Ptarmigan]

For one thing, the ongoing high-level shear of El Nino, though for certain many prayed for another quiet hurricane season in this part of the world, though unfortunately it has been a hard season in the Western Pacific, that's for sure...

And, can you imagine what gasoline prices would have been (almost $2.90 in this area as of today), if we had had 2 or 3 major hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico over the past few months?

When a good thing comes, be thankful for it...

Have a good off-season,

Frank

El Nino is favorable for WPAC and it has been a rough year for them, especially in the Philippines. Some El Nino seasons have been active, like 1969 and 2004.