Summary of 2005-2010 June hurricane season outlooks

[clfenwi]

Here's a roundup of the June hurricane season outlooks going back to 2005.

- 5 year average = average of observed activity in the past 5 seasons.
- Consensus = Average of the forecasts by Colorado State, North Carolina State, NOAA, Tropical Storm Risk, and Florida State.
- For forecasts containging a range, I took the average of the low and high end. The consensus average used the unrounded result, while what's displayed is rounded up/down as appropriate.

One thing I found (mildly) interesting about this season's forecast spread across CSU, NOAA, and TSR compared to 08 & 09 was in those two seasons, there was a bit of spread in their ACE predictions, even though storm numbers were almost identical. This year, the ACE predictions are virtually identical.

Named storms/Hurricanes/Major Hurricanes

Code: Select all

        2005     2006   2007   2008   2009   2010
actual  28/15/7 10/5/2 15/6/2 16/8/5 9/3/2
5yravg  15/7/4  17/8/4 17/8/4 17/8/4 17/9/5 16/7/4
cnsnsus 14/7/4  15/9/4 15/9/4 14/8/4 11/6/2 17/10/5
CSU     15/8/4  17/9/5 17/9/5 15/8/4 11/5/2 18/10/5
NCSU    x/6/x   x/6/x  13/9/5 14/7/x 13/7/x 17/10/x
NOAA    14/8/4  14/9/5 15/8/4 14/8/4 12/6/2 18/11/5
TSR     14/8/4  14/8/3 16/9/4 14/8/3 11/5/2 18/10/4
FSU                                  8/4/x  17/10/x

ACE

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        2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
actual  248  79   72   145  51
5yravg  137  164  158  160  154  119
cnsnsus 157  164  158  139  76   177
CSU     177  206  170  150  85   185
NOAA    136  149  147  136  85   186
TSR     159  138  156  131  69   182
FSU                         65   156

(kindly stand by while I try to tidy up the formatting... there, that's better.)

[bvigal]

Great work clfenwi! I've been working on something similar just for 2010, since Monday, just haven't had much spare time. I wanted to see the early (March/Apr) vs this week updates of major forecasts including NOAA, CSU, FSU, TSR, along with some commercial sources. If you want to see my unfinished data in case something you don't have, glad to share with you! Drop me a p.m.

[Aquawind]

I guess there are just no conditions to predict a season even close to 2005.