GOM Hurricane soon?

[Ivanhater]

Euro has been VERY consistent, and other models on board







Nogaps has east gulf storm



Canadian has Yucatan

[srainhoutx]

Western trough is forecast by the EC to begin a trek E bound this week and perhaps shift the Upper Ridge a bit N and E. Very persistent EC raises an eyebrow.

[KWT]

CMC ends up taking that system towards the Panhandle, a very realisitic track, the ECM is also quite plauseable for the 2nd half of June as well.

Thats a pretty decent looking system on the ECM, looks like those two models are developing the same area in the W.Caribbean as it develops around the same time.

Needs more model support first IMO but its quite interesting.

[Ivanhater]

CMC ends up taking that system towards the Panhandle, a very realisitic track, the ECM is also quite plauseable for the 2nd half of June as well.

Thats a pretty decent looking system on the ECM, looks like those two models are developing the same area in the W.Caribbean as it develops around the same time.

Needs more model support first IMO but its quite interesting.

When Euro is this consistent, it's usually not a good sign

[micktooth]

Where and when do these models originate this storm?

[Ivanhater]

Where and when do these models originate this storm?

Euro starts in just 72 hours in the SW Carribean





Nogaps in Southern Caribbean at 54 hours

[srainhoutx]

Southern Caribbean. Although with the amount of disturbed weather in the SW Caribbean, that area will need to be watched as well IMHO.

[Brent]

I think this idea has legs. The Caribbean is very active today and has been for several days. It's only a matter of time before something pops.

[srainhoutx]

TX WFO's are chatting about this in afternoon AFD's.

[Ivanhater]

TX WFO's are chatting about this in afternoon AFD's.

Corpus Christi


MODELS ARE NOW WASHING OUT THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT
IS CURRENTLY NEAR HISPANIOLA...THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY SHOWN IN HPC
PROGS IN THE WESTERN GULF SAT-SUN. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING
DISCREPANCIES IN THE POSITIONING OF THE MID LEVEL BY SUNDAY. ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND CANADIAN SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SECOND TROPICAL
WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN/SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO/YUCATAN
PENINSULA DAYS 6-7...AND NOW INDICATED ON HPC PROGS. SOMETHING TO
WATCH FOR BEYOND THE 7 DAY FORECAST.

[srainhoutx]

TX WFO's are chatting about this in afternoon AFD's.

Corpus Christi


MODELS ARE NOW WASHING OUT THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT
IS CURRENTLY NEAR HISPANIOLA...THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY SHOWN IN HPC
PROGS IN THE WESTERN GULF SAT-SUN. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING
DISCREPANCIES IN THE POSITIONING OF THE MID LEVEL BY SUNDAY. ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND CANADIAN SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SECOND TROPICAL
WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN/SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO/YUCATAN
PENINSULA DAYS 6-7...AND NOW INDICATED ON HPC PROGS. SOMETHING TO
WATCH FOR BEYOND THE 7 DAY FORECAST.

HGX...

THIS PATTERN EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE WEEK AS MODELS KEEP GOING WITH A SLIGHTLY
MORE ACTIVE END OF THE WEEK AS FAR AS THE GULF IS CONCERNED. LONG
RANGE PROGS (WHILE STILL SHAKY IN TERMS OF CONSISTENCY) REMAIN ON
COURSE WITH THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL SOMETHING THAT
COULD APPROACH THE TX COAST LINE AOA THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BUT
HAVING SAID THAT...THERE IS STILL QUITE A LOT OF TIME BETWEEN NOW
AND THEN AND A LOT MORE MODEL RUNS LEFT TO RUN. SO NOT QUITE BEAR
WATCHING TIME YET. 41

&&

EWX...

THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST TO
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND...OPENING UP A PATH FROM
THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF FOR ANY TROPICAL WAVES OR
TROPICAL CYCLONES THAT EXIST AT THAT TIME. THE 12Z ECMWF WAS
RATHER AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL GULF LATE IN THE FORECAST CYCLE...THEN MOVING IT
INTO THE COASTAL BEND AT 228H. THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF ALSO
SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR TC DEVELOPMENT. THIS TREND IS WORTHY OF
NOTE GIVEN THAT YESTERDAY`S 12Z RUN OF THE GFS WAS SHOWING THIS
POTENTIAL AS WELL. THE THEME HERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF THE
GULF BECOMING A FAVORABLE AREA FOR TC DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT NEXT
WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR NEAR NORMAL MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.

[KWT]

When Euro is this consistent, it's usually not a good sign

Yes your quite right, and it isn't helped by the fact that these sort of systems do quite often pop up in the W.Caribbean and move into the Gulf.

The Caribbean is pretty active right now and therefore this does need to be watched pretty closely, esp if more models come on board.

[srainhoutx]

GFS shear tendency...

[KWT]

Very interesting Ivanhater, the shear is indeed low where the system is, I can only imagine the ECM also agrees with this idea given it develops something from this region.

Needs to be watched, the 0z runs will be quite interesting!

[Wx_Warrior]

Ivan, glad you are jumping aboard with us EURO huggers.

[Ivanhater]

It is the NAM, but does agree with the other models

84 hours

[Ivanhater]

HPC

day 6



day 7

[SFLcane]

The cmc and the ecmwf both have 2 systems developing across the atl.

[Aquawind]

If the GFS picks up on this for the 00Z and the others stay onboard..I think we will have the first system of the season.

[KWT]

I think this is certainly an area to watch, the only thing that is slightly uncertain is whether or not this is the models just overdoing an area of convection/unstable conditions aloft down in the S.Caribbean in general as often happens in the early season.

If we see some turning developing in a few days time, then we quite possibly will have our next player.